Thinksnow18

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The NAM is pretty unimpressive with the LES, not really buying anything more than a few inches. Bring on the next torch, yesterday was awesome. 

Wasn't november also originally forecast to be AN as well???

Never mind not able to upload.

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Once again their focusing on a W-WNW flow starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday but this time its plenty cold at all levels of the BL, with 850's down to about -12C to -15C!

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Maybe in cny that's true but winds are yo turn southwesterly next Thursday night and Friday on Niagara frontier. Here's the map from the 18z GFS...

Quite silent in here today...so I'll try and stoke the fire a bit...the last 5 runs or so on the GFS ops have a Alberta clipped sliding just north of the great lakes and slowing up a bit between thus and Friday which shows a prolonged 12 to 18 hour window of SW winds during that time. The 850's look to be more than cold enough and the moisture has been there each run...this is reminding me of last year in early December (9th maybe?) Where the Northtowns of williamsville and Amherst Amherstpicked up between 8 and 12 inches. Something to watch at least.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The euro weeklies verification score beyond week 2 has been terrible recently. It looks like any warm up will be transient. 

Yes in fact theres been a lot of chatter about multiple PV disruptions in the coming weeks and a larger one towards the middle to end of Dec which could really make winter stick around vs the ups and downs over the next 10 to 14 days.

12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Why?

Both runs show a complete 180 to yesterday's runs which brought in a couple of systems around Tuesday and next weekend and much colder air...now nothing more than some washed out lows and mildish air. 

It appears the GFS 0z and 6z lost their minds this morning.

2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

awesome how are the roads?

They're clear! It would take a foot of snow over night to be messed up but would quickly be cleared...as to your other question it mainly takes a 240 vector wind to hit much of Northern Erie including metro buffalo, Amherst, Williamsville and the Tonawandas...yesterday was more of a synoptic/lake enhanced hybrid event with some convergence areas north and south of buffalo including Williamsville.

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The final total for Williamsville, NY?

8.6"! Overachiever.

I think that event next weekend at this early juncture is the metro area's shot at a decent LES event.

Still snowing moderately in Williamsville...approaching 8" eyeballing it.

In fact to be honest the whole Niagara frontier could've been under a WSW as it was 7" in a 12 hour period. 

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Surprised too. Niagara Falls is going to have over 10". 

...Niagara County...
   4 NE Sanborn           8.2   700 AM 11/28  Co-Op Observer
   Niagara Falls Airpor   8.2   653 AM 11/28  ASOS
   Pendleton 1NE          6.8   700 AM 11/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 NNE North Tonawand   6.5   700 AM 11/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 WNW Lockport         6.0   820 AM 11/28  CoCoRaHS

Chalk it up to a miss for the NWS

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Perrysburg might have a shot at 3 feet, crazy. 

With the 6 or so inches at KBUF today the total for the month will be pushing a foot. Not bad.

Approaching 7" if not at it...been moderate snow since about 5:30 with good flake size.

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Our classic words Scott?  "Something ain't happening James?"

Quick update, closing in on 7" in Williamsville and still borderline +SN.

31 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Your just outside the city right? so thats a good idea of what the area got so far.

I haven't checked the airport yet but I'm about 2 miles north of there so a pretty good match I suppose.

Update...intensity is moderate to almost +S and looks to be for about an hour or so with banding off Ontario and probably upstream from Georgian Bay. Will definitely get to if not over 6" on this pace.

Woke up to 4.9" here. Still -SN flake size small, almost grainy...not bad might get another inch or so. 

Best snowfall rates all day...about 2" OTG and if this pace keeps up the high end of 5" will be realized by the am.

27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's not gold at all. It's far too warm. 

A) this team is good, scary good...2) (yes that was on purpose) if this was 2 months from now we'd be talking a foot plus area wide.

Up to 1.6" on the day and about 1" on the ground. Still sticking to 3"-5" for the event.

49 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

My grandma lives in Williamsville, NY, how is the snow coming?

Light at the moment...about a slushy 1/2" or so. Took until sunset to start accumulating.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://imgur.com/a/59X0Jnz

can see the depth in this one 

So that's what it looks like when these little white things stick together...well arlt least it's snowing decently in Williamsville and finally accumulating on everything. Still think about 3 to 5 but if the temps continue towards that 27 degree mark it could make more beneficial accumulation.

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty big difference between Blasdell and Hamburg on Thruway cams

https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI90W

There is but none of the cameras show one area with a lot of snow...this is definitely elevation dependent...im going to rake the extra leaves later as there is no snow accums in Williamsville at all.