Thinksnow18

If this image doesn't say it all about the models right now...some are showing a tank AO, some show a positive AO and some are in between. The very image of uncertainty.

Well the last 2 runs of the GFS through the next 2 week's is about as terrible as I've witnesses in a long while. If you are staring at grass now chances are by the end of 2 weeks you'll be staring at grass then as well. 

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Excited for you Buffalo residents!

Well south buffalo residents!!! Us peasants here in the Northtowns are playing corn hole this Christmas Eve!

LR GFS this morning shows an impressive cold dump just after the new year right through the end of the run, but it appears we stay cold and dry. Oh well if it actually comes to fruition at least the backyard will freeze and I won't have as much mud in my house as I do outside.

54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Good one Lloyd

And it begins...

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Light years away, but this is the time period most  are watching..

 

 

I've been mentioning that storm for 2 days now. Its been really consistent the past few days. Yes it's WAAAAYYYY out in unicornville but I like the consistency.

It's from the New Years Day storm that first showed on the GFS yesterday and now support from the GEFS...eerily the Goofus has been pretty good with long lead times this season as it sniffed out that southern storm almost 10 days out. I'm not counting any chickens, however, I am lending credence to some kibd of storm over the NE towards the New Year.

He goes on to say in his Twitter response that this should become winters main event but doesn't happen til early January.

Well I've been trying to upload hour 228 on this mornings GFS run as it shows what would be a Christmas Eve miracle...you know if it wasn't 228 hours out.

This band is no joke!!! 2 to 3 inches an hour in heart of band

1 minute ago, cny rider said:

If only it bore any relationship to actual reality......

Yeah is that expected amounts after today's event because as of the 7am timeframe today I had bare lawn in Williamsville

Seriously! What happened to the band??? It just completely dissipated and not one model showed that.

What happened to the band???

And now it's smoking the Northtowns

+SN in Williamsville. Roads are trash already.

Added to the list of WWA is Niagara and Orleans counties...i would not be surprised at all the see northern Erie and Genesee upgraded as the event draws near.

Upstream radars look incredible...and all LES at this moment SW winds...superior looks the best but there is definitely a nice response.

The latest in-house models on 4 and 7 show longer residency time in metro and both stations mentioned thunder snow, on 4 their in house model didnt leave the metro until about 1pm and 7 was similar...4-8 for 4 and 4-7 for 7. I think metro reaches the upper level.

WWA for all of Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua Co's midnight to 7pm tomorrow night...4-7 Northtowns and 5-9 south and east of buffalo.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow..

I have to think this is a classic setup for the metro as the winds are going full fetch up the lake. That has, in the past, overcome not so great parameters. Will be interested in the placement of the NAM tomorrow morning.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That also shows a good 6 to 10 inches for metro...this could be a good one

I'll tell you what, all the in-house models on WIVB 4 and WKBW 7 show the band into the metro and Northtowns from about 5am to noon. Oddly Todd on 4 is only saying 2-4 for metro and 1-3 for Niagara county...just alone if rates are what is being forecast of 1-2" hour then double those totals to each sector and that would be logical.

Im starting to think some watches will go up tomorrow morning for Northern and Southern Erie counties

Well whatever accumulation the Niagara Frontier receives it will be the last substantial one for a while. Hopefully the late December period has a colder, snowier solution.