North and West

People do get tired of hearing "North and West" on the news all the time lol.
 

Would be higher like several regional surrounding sites if the tree growth since the mid 90s didn’t artificially suppress the high temperatures during the warm season. 

Every storm is elevation.  It's so annoying. 
Can we please go back to the snowy winters . 

3 years of garbage winters will do that...

Should we put the snow tires on the horse & carriage ?

287 Special!! Yoo hoo

Yeah I dont know what his thing is with new england lol, he's not even a Yankees fan
 

Also generated on this date 9 years ago
 
 

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

I will chase ghosts then with other forums then 

Many don't realize this, but 2 weeks of cold is plenty.
I'm over March "cold" and barely accumulating snow, but the last two weeks of February being more hospitable to snowfall is plenty.
 

I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact

Ended up delayed by 2-3 weeks in retrospect.  If that happens for the Mid Feb time frame we are about cooked.

Just now, MJO812 said:

I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. 

 

I hope you're right, but until the meh is proven wrong, you have to ride the hot hand. 

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Extensive studies have shown little benefit to organic foods, and a lot of them really aren't organic. I learned this in fisheries; a lot of the stuff for sale in markets is not what the label says it is. Recently I have seen porgies labeled Dorado, farm raised hybrid bass labeled wild striped bass ( illegal in NJ ) and tilapia labeled as flounder. And one reason you'll see " wild caught" is because that just means it was caught in a net; it could be a farmed salmon that's escaped. No one knows unless they break out a DNA test. So just eat what looks good in moderation and don't worry about it. Avoid smoking ( everything including pot, which is not, as some believe, some miracle health elixir; clear studies show long term cognitive decline with use ) and alcohol. But if you want to smoke and drink, have at it. Whatever gets you through the day. within reason, is my philosophy. We're all headed to the same conclusion.

Mostly due to all the excess heat being absorbed by the oceans providing more heat to be released to the atmosphere during El Niño’s. Following the first spike in 97-98, we had all the record winter warmth in the late 90s and our new warmest summer up to that time in 2005 with the hyperactive hurricane season. The next El Niño in 09-10 added more heat leading to the record warm summers in 2010 and 2011. Record blocking accompanied this pattern for several winters. Also Sandy occurred during this period. Then the ridiculous +13 December 15 with that El Niño followed by 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. So now the global temperature spike in 2023 was higher than any of the previous El Niño’s. So we wait and see what is in store with this new even higher baseline world temperatures.

Gfs !!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2024/01/19/sports-illustrated-layoffs-gold-standard/72283622007/

Interesting note for sports fans of a certain age, it seems like Sports Illustrated died today.

Sad end, but a good life. I had a subscription 25 years ago, right around the time I still enjoyed the Local on the 8s.


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What happens when one posts maps for extreme cold from late November through December and the period winds up among the warmest on record? What happens when one posts maps of near historic cold in the Northeast to end December and start January but temperatures again average above normal? What happens when one posts a GGEM run showing 10”+ snow for NYC on January 19th with a PNA- pattern and it becomes clear that there will be no major snowstorm? 
Some punt ahead to hype another cold or snowy event.

And how does the GFS look the following day for the same point in time?

Although such maps remain well outside the skillful range, the dramatic change underscores the futility of latching onto unskillful guidance. Serious forecasters respect the limitations of models. They don’t exploit the models’ limitations to confirm biases and pursue clicks.
Yet, that’s the kind of hype one finds on X/Twitter and other social media from several accounts on a frequent basis. Such hype damages the credibility of professional private and public sector meteorologists who consistently provide good forecasts, but who often are drowned out by the hype of those who seek clicks/views but then tarnished by the fallout resulting from the failed extreme forecasts made by those who hype extreme events.
And even as some of the accounts frequently punt ahead with repeated calls for cold/snow, it’s important to remember that in the larger context, the periodic convergence of cold/snow with such calls is far more a matter of coincidence than skill. 

The more things change…


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Ensembles....day 10 on OP is fantasy

Got about an inch at MMU. Nice and pretty.

With the cold weekend coming up, it feels like a throwback to have had two light, nondescript snow events in a week that weren’t massive snow to rain events or two foot coastal storms, within a cold period. Just feels nice, boring, and wintry.


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It’s actually snowing really hard at MMU. You’d think we live in Tampa last night judging by this forum.


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Do we ever see heat anomalies 40 to 50 above normal? We do seem to see those types of cold anomalies in the US in recent years...