North and West

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I refuse to pay a streaming service to watch that game 

I don't care enough to even consider paying. NFL is now going down the same path the other major leagues have in trying their best to make the game inaccessible. I know it's banter, but having the games over the air and at no cost has helped them become the ratings juggernaut that they are. They're going to mess with the magic now. 

I believe [mention=564]bluewave[/mention] has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

The only stupid question is the one that isn’t asked. And please don’t call yourself stupid. I enjoy your posts. 
The Euro developed a nearly infallible reputation for East Coast storm tracks around 2012 and 2013. It’s only my guess that an upgrade after that period did something to it for EC storm tracks. I would love to have one of ECMWF crew join the forum so they can give us inside technical info about the model development process.

I agree with Walt that the Euro is probably too suppressed. We have seen these issues pop up since one of the upgrades around 2014 or 2015. The Euro had a great run with East Coast storm tracks from Sandy to Nemo. But something changed around 2014 or 2015. It’s either over amped at times like Jan 2015 or suppressed like Feb 2021. Plus there have been other suppression examples where the model suddenly corrects NW in the short term to match the consensus. That being said, the GEM and UKMET are pretty amped up at this range. So my concern at this point is more later runs ticking NW and presenting warmer solutions along the immediate coast than an outright suppression scenario. But we will see since there is no rush to get the exact track of this one correct until the big cutter goes by to our north tomorrow. 

Recent years suppression case
 

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold,  it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us.
 
IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….

Finally going to snow. 

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Models are speculating what they think in regards to how the cutter will change the pattern or what will happen. When models get data after the cutter it will be more up to date. I think 

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

Should I even mention ratios? Haha

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days. 
 

 

That's actually super interesting as to why we haven't had as many subzero readings here in the past 15 years (we've had them multiple times at MMU, less so at CPK for this and other reasons). Didn't consider the part about the warm lakes. Thanks for sharing. 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All time record winter cold daily high temps are going to be challenged in the center of the country with this outbreak (per TWC most records there were from the 70s). Definitely will be modified as it's pulled east by the cutter, however should at least put as below average for a while.

I look forward to the news that it's actually cold because of climate change (Yes, yes, it is occurring, and I believe it), because god forbid we get hot or cold or snow or rain anymore without wet and wild AGW action to generate clicks to. 

Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest  and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive  but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast.  We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOL

The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened

3.41" - Pump ran and did its job.  Did not lose power so generator did not kick in to save the day.  Pump does not run frequently here.  Except for Ida rains it rarely ran in the 5 years prior.  Lately has been running much more frequently.

How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps?

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that. 
 

One thing I'll say - and you know a lot more than I do (I assume you're a professional) - is that we, as a whole, jump ahead so often. Let's get through this difficult night and ensuing chill prior to the next (all too often) presumed warmup. 

back to reality

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-08/winter-storm-aside-snow-is-disappearing-because-of-climate-change


.

I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I had my mini snow. All set for pitchers and catchers  City can make it 1065. Why not?

I had my snow, it's melting nicely, I cleared out my storm drains, so I'm ready for baseball. 

Then record cold comes over them 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Are you kidding. That forum is a shit show lol. This forum much more civil and respectful 

If this is civil and respectful...

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

JFC the New England subforum is larger than ours and they don’t argue about micro regions. Just let it be. 

Yes, but we're concurrently both better and yet somehow more awful . 

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

we really do have five (IMO) subsections with it's own specific climatology, and like this weekend showed, they don't always have similar conditions:

1. Praise be Long Island
2. Ehmergerd, the City
3. Down the Shore Everything's All Right
4. Country Bumpkins in the Hudson Valley and Sussex County
5. Pioneer life in NNJ

I did not include Central New Jersey because Central New Jersey is a social construct and not a real place.

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

8 million people live on Long Island…only 9 million live in the entire state of NJ. It’s a high impact event for millions of people. 

You know I jest, right? 

Now, I just need to ensure that my log cabin along the 287 trail is secure and mother has acquired provisions for the harsh winter prior to this gale.