PositiveEPOEnjoyer

This dude is posting 230 hour operational runs when the GFS can't even get a forecast right within 72 hours, not sure why you're bothering to come to his defense. We've essentially been torching for the past few years btw, this recent cold period is merely a blip. This really is a denier board, maybe not quite as bad as "The Weather Forums", but still sad to see.

We'll see.

You're stupid enough to believe that LOT takes any serious consideration into a fantasy range OP GFS run, LMAO. Like I said, the operational GFS is the worst performing model as of recent, and you're putting so much weight into it because you can't cope with the fact that winter is coming to an end, or you're just trolling hard, lmao. Not to mention these are 230+ hour runs, if you're going to do that at least use the AI Euro or an ensemble. Btw, even a 3 day Feb 2017 redux would be a very notable warm period. Before that happens, several days in the 50s will surely have it feeling like spring around these parts. Enjoy your early spring kiddo.

Using a 230+ hr model run of the operational GFS (lowest skilled model) as a means to cope with the coming torch is hilarious though, bravo there.

Are you illiterate? This is straight from LOT:

Feb 2017 redux?

Wonder if @cyclone77 will tag 70 next week? I wouldn't rule it out based on recent model runs...

In due time...

Cherry picking cities will do that

Could be like a March 2024 redux where the first half was record warm and the second half cooled off to near or slightly below average, despite completely different ENSO conditions.

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

who's downplaying the cold? It was a notable two week stretch of cold, but there have been plenty of similarly cold (or colder) stretches in the CONUS over the years (not just past, recent as well). It's not just the anomalies, but also the duration of the warmth out west which has been more impressive than any cold in the east this season.

-NAO tends to be a stronger cold signal for the west in Feb. Of course it can still have implications in the east, but it wouldn't be as notable.

Idk, looks pretty torchy still

This doesn’t look too promising for cold temps to stick around in the east.

Ensembles still have a warm look for this subforum and haven’t really backed off from it. GEFS has actually trended slightly warmer since yesterday. I mean if you’re looking for a Feb 2017 or Feb 2024 redux you’ll be sorely disappointed, but still looks warmer than average on the whole, even if it’s not a downright torch.

Max 24° Min 8° Snow 0.5”

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

They really haven't though. 2024 featured the 6th warmest April on record at Detroit, and your last "cold" April was in 2022. Even then, it was a mere 2 degrees below average, so nothing to write home about. I haven't said anything about how April will shape up this year as I have no idea what will happen (way too early), but if we're basing forecasts on how our recent weather months shaped up (which isn't entirely correct to do), I'd def lean warmer than average. Also still waiting to see how this supposed PV split will shake up the pattern. Cold may favor the West instead (assuming it even does happen).

And you’re basing this on what exactly? 1976-1977 was one of the coldest winters on record and that spring went on to be an absolute torch fest.

@raindancewx has been pretty spot on with his calls this winter. He had the right idea about the late Dec/early Jan warm-up, forecasted a cold Jan for the east, which verified well, and also stated a while back about the cold retrogressing hard to the west at some point later in the winter. Now virtually every model is showing that in the extended with a strong -PNA signal.

The AI GFS has 60s for Chicago as early as Feb 9. Probably overdone, but 50s aren’t out of the question. A lot of it hinges on the extent of the high latitude blocking

GFS ensembles are quite warm for the first week of March. Long ways out, but still interesting to see.

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.