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Henry's Weather

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    The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage.

    I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in.

    Do you mean further west?

    The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed.

     

    Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

    Is the mechanic such that a slower phase would ultimately be what SNE wants? Eg. If N stream is slower, that matters because phase will happen later and therefore more east?

    Makes me wonder if 1/25 really is a good synoptic-scale analog (for stream interaction). I don't mean to have weenie-goggles here, I just remember the storm movement was S->N and stalling because of a similar interaction

     

    March 2023 Obs/Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys.

    Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

    Ah, so greater intraseasonal variability can anecdotally mask itself as seasonal shift? I could understand that if SD for "severe weather index" increases alongside with mean temperature increases, the window in which significant winter events may occur will expand even if it's an evenly-distributed warming.

    That said, I've read a few papers which predict that even in the next 50 years, N/S jet orientation is not predicted to move northward in spring, while it is for other seasons.

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