Henry's Weather

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Bold! I hope you are correct

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Whereabouts? I had family there. I lived for about a year near the George Wright golf course on top of a hill.

I have a clear view of the Blue Hills ski area from my apartment, which is nice

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Whereabouts? I had family there. I lived for about a year near the George Wright golf course on top of a hill.

Oh cool! I'm on Child st closer to Readville

I think NAM will be better. Less amped trough orientation, stronger southern piece

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I went nuts. I only use to do maps for CT but I expanded a bit and I’m getting destroyed on Twitter hahaha. 

Send the tweet! Haha

Just now, George001 said:

I’m excited but I feel you on that. In the past I would have been hyping up a historic blizzard even the coast, but I’m skeptical of that this time. 

It's not that I'm not obsessively checking the models and such, but I used to lose sleep over storms like this. Lots of sleep. Anyone recall that storm in the beginning of March 2018, which was all rain? I got so burned by optimism for a flip to snow during that event. I think since then, it's been harder for me to be all-in, which is really a pretty helpful thing I think.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. But that’s given my locale. I’d be somewhat excited inland. 

Maybe it has to do with local for me too, moved to Hyde Park recently 

Cognitively, it's awesome, but my body doesn't believe.

Does anybody else not feel any excitement for this event? I feel like my nervous system has been humbled over the last year

Just now, ineedsnow said:

BOX going low

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
309 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-120915-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
309 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The high terrain of western and central Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning. 

This makes sense to me as a first-attempt

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grabbed it off of Twitter .. it’s probably A Wxbell product 

I think it's a pivotal product

Still certainly within realm of possibility

Right up the gullet! Goodnight

Should be an interesting 06z NAM

Storm is on east coast at 48 hours, she's coming.

Anyone got the QPF mean?

EC initialized

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would mean timing the phase perfectly because it tends to elongate during the phasing process, when that inverted trough results form the conduit of energy feeding in from the N stream.

Also would mean that the southern s/w needs to take some primacy and stretch this thing?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the most difficult one I have had...the phasing is so nuanced.

Compound that with pessimistic seasonal memory and terrible BL conditions... big uncertainty. Gives you a sense of why Fisher hasn't tweeted in 3 days, hah

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Working on it now...I had to scrap everything after 12z.

Such a finicky and explosive set-up, would be cool to see you pull a coup

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe…certainly close. Something like the NAM just a little further south would be pretty epic too.
 

Essentially what you’re going for if we’re trying for the unicorn is to get that midlevel flow out of the east before it warms above 0C and at the same time we’re turning the lower levels more NE with a stall somewhere south of the islands. You need an entirely closed upper level going underneath LI elongated east-west. 

Interesting that the low needs to be elongated for best results, why?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its related to scooter's appendage becoming less prominent.

Think you'll have enough for a first outlook after EPS tonight? 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You guys look at clown maps way too much. The GGEM was about as classic as it gets for a pretty widespread heavy snow impact. The H5 was awesome, the midlevels were awesome. I certainly wouldn’t trust the GGEM’s lowest level thermals…prob one of the worst models for that (long with Ukie)

It seems like the GGEM H5 evolution is the best case scenario for most of SNE, bar none. Do you agree?