Henry's Weather

It’s easy to confuse disappointment (true dopamine reward vs. expected reward) with real information

If I had to bet real money, I bet it’ll essentially hold serve, with maybe a 50 mile buffer each direction. We will see, because the venn diagram for restfulness and weenie-dom is comprised of two separate circles

God, how the hell are we supposed to sleep? I get that we have exactly zero control over the outcome, but why do our bodies have to force us to bear witness??

… I’m just kidding, I’m as guilty of that as the next

Good to see we kept a quorum of participants out on our side

Unfortunate to see the OP runs deteriorate. However, this was true, both at 12z, 18z, and now: OP runs should be considered pure theatre until ~72 hours before the first flakes would fall. It is best to tracks ensemble trends at H5

We should take this disco over to its specific thread, courtesy of Tip

H5 orientation took a step back this run, a shame. We wait for ensembles

Alright, model talk can go here!

Somebody stormvista us!

Looks more like 12z.

Someone ought to train an AI that takes deterministic and ensemble guidance 180 hrs out and predicts the likelihood of a significant event. This can be sort of our threat barometer What would need to happen: 1) Define sig. event (average precipitation of .5 over a 48 hour period for some given area) Parse all modeling data that preceded sig. events and train the AI to find model trends that correlated more with an event occurring than with non-sig weather. Might be cool, Would be interested if someone here is an AI research or user to verify my methodology

CMC holds serve, Sampras style

Congratulations you NYC weenies… if the deal is you get 30 and I get 20, I sign on the dotted

This seems to be a NNE until Western- scooch kind of deal

…neither did I lol. It’s gotta be something like that, we await the inevitable clown posting

LBSW for you but verbatim 18” IYBY… ya gotta take it, no?

Imagine the deform.

If it works out, excitement -> real positive outcome. If it doesn’t (probabilistically most likely outcome), we at least enjoyed the modeling theatre. Win/win

2015 who???

LOCK. IT. IN.

No Z intended here!

People are melting already? Give this a couple days to sort itself out. I mean, we are discussing a threat about 6 days from gracing the eastern seaboard.