Henry's Weather
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Everything posted by Henry's Weather
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Yeah, those 24 hr intervals are really practical for short term predictions -
thats like telling a recovering heroin addict to vacation on Cape Cod
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I almost asked about the 18z euro run. I need to get a grip
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yes yes, down here in the subtropical climes we could use a little rain, its been arid
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This should be a good one for NNE, y'all should enjoy! Hopeful this weekend the AEMATT crew can get some love
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really? TBH the models seem to have been excellent recently
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Yeah, I'm starting to psychologically prep myself to be hopeful for a couple fun hours near daybreak Monday. Lessening expectations for sure
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Eh, doesn't end up making much of a difference
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Idk, it seems slightly better to me. The trough seems slightly less negatively tilted due to slightly less n stream interaction. It's early though
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Remember how sweet and harmonious just half an hour ago was?
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wolfsnarling.gif
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NAM's clown range H5 track would appear to evolve more favorably than the 18z GFS's, as it seems to ride the coastline, but the lowlevels are torched on NAM
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This is pretty unscientific but I see the diving northern energy as something plunging beneath the surface of some body of water (jet), displacing "water" upstream ahead of it. Ay yi yi
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If we could just move that closed contour over a select couple of bereaved Taunton dwellers, we'd be in the clear. It's so close to being so much better
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I'm thinking if the H5 evolution more or less holds we have maybe 3-4 hours of heavy precip, and then moderate precip for another couple
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agreed
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yeah, I wonder if this ocean storm somehow ends up phasing earlier if we'd have stauncher confluence
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Also, is H5 considered upper level and H7-8 midlevel? Just for jargon-understanding purposes
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I think I see. So at this point, since H5 appears so unfavorable, we are banking on surface redev to help keep winds from turning SE and washing away our WAA snows/also prolonging our WAA snows?
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Can a willing met explain the basic physics principles behind secondary LP development? And what that might mean for this situation, what with the H5 track so far west? Eager minds want to know
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considering this is basically a banter thread, for better or for worse, yeah
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does closing off the mid/lower levels prevent, for lack of a better term, upper level energy (?) flowing northward unencumbered with the shape of the jet? I'd guess that it's meaningful in terms of wind fields and how different levels of the column change temperature. Am I kind of understanding? I still don't get exactly what would cause closing off to happen.
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what about closing off 850 mb heights indicates/causes a colder situation?
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GFS ticks east, GEFS tick west. Just isolating trends in the american models, we appear to be narrowing the goal posts between and outer-cape track and a coastal plain hugger.
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I'm not a met so you know more than me, but didn't the surface low being more east verify, but we were hit with the H7 deform?
