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Henry's Weather

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Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. Henry's Weather
    Remember how sweet and harmonious just half an hour ago was?
  2. Henry's Weather
    wolfsnarling.gif
  3. Henry's Weather
    NAM's clown range H5 track would appear to evolve more favorably than the 18z GFS's, as it seems to ride the coastline, but the lowlevels are torched on NAM
  4. Henry's Weather
    This is pretty unscientific but I see the diving northern energy as something plunging beneath the surface of some body of water (jet), displacing "water" upstream ahead of it. Ay yi yi
  5. Henry's Weather
    If we could just move that closed contour over a select couple of bereaved Taunton dwellers, we'd be in the clear. It's so close to being so much better
  6. Henry's Weather
    I'm thinking if the H5 evolution more or less holds we have maybe 3-4 hours of heavy precip, and then moderate precip for another couple
  7. Henry's Weather
    agreed
  8. Henry's Weather
    yeah, I wonder if this ocean storm somehow ends up phasing earlier if we'd have stauncher confluence
  9. Henry's Weather
    Also, is H5 considered upper level and H7-8 midlevel? Just for jargon-understanding purposes
  10. Henry's Weather
    I think I see. So at this point, since H5 appears so unfavorable, we are banking on surface redev to help keep winds from turning SE and washing away our WAA snows/also prolonging our WAA snows?
  11. Henry's Weather
    Can a willing met explain the basic physics principles behind secondary LP development? And what that might mean for this situation, what with the H5 track so far west? Eager minds want to know
  12. Henry's Weather
    considering this is basically a banter thread, for better or for worse, yeah
  13. Henry's Weather
    does closing off the mid/lower levels prevent, for lack of a better term, upper level energy (?) flowing northward unencumbered with the shape of the jet? I'd guess that it's meaningful in terms of wind fields and how different levels of the column change temperature. Am I kind of understanding? I still don't get exactly what would cause closing off to happen.
  14. Henry's Weather
    what about closing off 850 mb heights indicates/causes a colder situation?
  15. Henry's Weather
    GFS ticks east, GEFS tick west. Just isolating trends in the american models, we appear to be narrowing the goal posts between and outer-cape track and a coastal plain hugger.
  16. Henry's Weather
    I'm not a met so you know more than me, but didn't the surface low being more east verify, but we were hit with the H7 deform?
  17. Henry's Weather
    Golden
  18. Henry's Weather
    Oh well. Pattern is long. I remember how painful the first storm of March 2018 was because I was delusionally hopeful for evaporative cooling. A few days later, we got a foot and a half, bookended by two half-footers.
  19. Henry's Weather
    I mean, I'd be lying to myself if the GEFS doesn't keep me interested in the threat, but as of now, it's a far eastern outlier. Plus, doesn't GFS/GEFS have a progressive bias?
  20. Henry's Weather
    yeah, not wasting time on a storm which most guidance has tracking over ALB. If it becomes a positive surprise, yay
  21. Henry's Weather
    Not sure if its been posted, but GEFS snowfall mean is very pleasing to most
  22. Henry's Weather
    I wonder how often these events trend east in the modeling from D4-5 to event time. Especially Southern stream fueled ones
  23. Henry's Weather
    Would be funny if the euro missed OTS
  24. Henry's Weather
    jeez, look at all those 970s
  25. Henry's Weather
    Really gorgeous snowfall out there
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