Henry's Weather

Lots of coastal scrapers on the GEFS, should be wary of that

Still nowhere near the bombed out solutions on the 18z ensembles, but yet a nice warning event for ENE, tells you about the upside for this system

Hope you're in the process of a write-up!

BOX AFD: "It is Fri night into Sat night where the confidence in the forecast really starts to dwindle. Recent deterministic global model runs have showed varying solutions both in track and strength pertaining to a developing coastal storm near the SE US coast, induced by a potent shortwave trough along the Gulf Coast or Carolina coast. The deep amplitude and location of the longwave trough near the western slope of the Appalachians in most models indicates an inland track is a less favored outcome. This is reflected in GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble mean low track being more offshore near or SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Only a small minority of individual members show an inland track; while most members reflect a coastal/offshore track, there`s large spread in the members in terms of how close to the SNE coast the storm may get. Have mention of PoP across all of SNE for Fri night into Sat night; but sided PoP to slight or low chance northwest of I-95; then to more solid Chance (30-40%) near the coastal plain to the offshore waters. This isn`t the final answer, and expect changes to come to these as well. However this should be a good starting point with adjustments up or down as more coherent and consistent trends develop in the coming days. What we can say is that it is looking like a coastal storm should be somewhere either over the Eastern US coast or offshore in the Fri night to Sat night timeframe, but it`s far too uncertain to lock into any solution given the location and strength spread in the ensembles. Sunday however looks dry or with improving conditions but uncertainty from Fri-Sat night lingers into Sunday too. Stay tuned!"

Yeah maybe if she was a snow weenie obsessing over QPF model output 6 days out. But who are we to blame her?

mannnn I hope youre right about the 12z JMA from yesterday being the most synoptically congruent because I'll take 3 inches of noreaster QPF imby

it's a comforting thought

only 7.5 days to go!

yeah, pivotal seemed worse

Yeah pretty much held serve from 12z, just a tad flatter. Taken verbatim, euro is a foot for ESNE. Someone can confirm but maybe this 700 mb track is a little too far south for comfort? Cant upload pics on mobile

Would be nice to have some blocking in this pattern, you know

the man has his priorities in line

Wave spacing issues prevent a snowier soln on the GFS.

If I had to guess, GFS will be a hit for far southeastern areas and GEFS will bring the .5 inch QPF line along the jersey coast up through middle LI and cutting NE from Providence to Plymouth

We probably should wait 3 or so cycles and see if the trend continues/consolidates on the ensembles, then become more invested

It's weird to see those deep bermuda blues and tropical looking clouds in January, but I guess we live in the tropics according to Phin so it makes sense

I checked the site and saw this 3 more pages than this morning and was pinned... I was like, the euro must've hit

It's real weenie hours over here. The graveyard shift

Coming down moderately with about an inch on the ground. Probably time to hit the hay

Yeah, those 24 hr intervals are really practical for short term predictions

thats like telling a recovering heroin addict to vacation on Cape Cod

I almost asked about the 18z euro run. I need to get a grip

yes yes, down here in the subtropical climes we could use a little rain, its been arid

This should be a good one for NNE, y'all should enjoy! Hopeful this weekend the AEMATT crew can get some love