Henry's Weather

That is bombo I believe. -20 mb/12 hours is greater than a 1 mb fall per hour. I might be butchering some ancillary part of the def though

This is a very dynamic system and it snows for about 10 hours. Someone is getting a foot, right?

yeah but if you can experience it, the blue dawn with the snow is magical

My favorite type too, the daybreak storms

yes please

Long range looks juicy. It's going to be a fun month y'all

All the nonsense aside, it'll be so exciting to see the first substantial snow of the year

3km coming in hot

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday: Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west. 24 hr precip from 12z Friday Worcester east gets .05 to .1 You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it. NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip. NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2 NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3 Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though? NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest NAM 3km total after: .75+ RGEM antecendent: .2-.3 RGEM total before 12z: .4 RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots. EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2 EC 24 hr accum after: .3 Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

About half of those are pretty desirable outcomes, which are odds that I would take

You are wrong, all models have the bulk of snow where we are between 8 and noon. We do not live in New Jersey.

Friday morning but yeah

I live in ESNE, not the case for us. Unless you swear by the 3km NAM at hour 48

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

Is this a similar storm to the superbowl storm last year, synoptically? Just curious

maybe like east of 495 up into Nashua and down towards Providence

Not only are the mesos still waffling between moderate event and significant event, the ensembles still have a west-based spread. Even the euro's unattractive solution from 0z features a consolidated piece of energy rounding a neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, pointed directly at NE, or at least east NE. It's hard to conceive a solution where we don't at least get some solid snows for a few hours.

Operational models switched places at hour 84 in a progressive flow? Color me shocked. Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles until Wednesday afternoon.

It could be less active than the main one, as people will still want to interact like usual. But some purely technical discussion would be cool.

Agreed, its not worth fretting over details at this point. It's better to just let the baroclinic zone and the west coast ridge do the macroscale work

yeah, i would love a thread where mets just discuss

Why the JK? that sounds great

Very strong cross-ensemble agreement of signal for a coastal 4-5 days out. Do not live and die by the vicissitudes of the operational runs, because we have like 3 "trends" to go before game-time. This system is also an emergent of a jet displacement on the west coast resulting in a +2 SD change in PNA value, so it has strong synoptic support.

the evolution on the Euro is beautiful, with a clearly defined baroclinic zone set up by the previous system with high pressure building in fron the west, while a SW is funneled right to where it needs to be to snow. Synoptically textbook significant/low end major event.

reminds me of 3/14/17