Henry's Weather

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only.

I am in Paris from the 1st to the 9th, so I would bet on a major storm within that window…

16z hrrr is even colder

Flakes are surprisingly healthy in Concord

Just drove through the rain/snow line, situated exactly at exit 127 on rt 2. Here’s to it staying put

HRRR with sig. better outcome for 495 belt than previous hour. Let’s see if it keep ticking colder

Thank you thank you, based on what you just wrote, my locale (West Concord just off rt. 2) may very well be right on the r/s line. btw as an aside, is it better for cold air retention if upper levels close off in this case?

In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?

These SOBs… “Saturday at the earliest”

Someone should start a threat-specific thread

31-3 at the half

Muted sun, orange leaves, a Pats routing… nothing like these weekends

Pea-sized hail in West Concord. Low-level lapse rates are cool

That’s what he said

Saw a baby on one of my runs a few weeks ago