PB-99

Even when I look at the EPS and GEFS stringing LP out through the N/E it just looks like L/R lake cutters that drags a C/F through the area for a few days. Can`t have the negative in the SW unless the troughs that come out are all positively tilted and then can run the baroclinic zone. Even then I never like that look without blocking, the flow tends to ride further N as we get closer.

And probably progresses thru 7 and 8 as well. Those RIMM plots were adamant about looping in p6 12 days ago and instead came out into 7 and 8. I have no gripe with the MJO going into 5 and 6. I do have an issue with those who think it just stays there, I believe it progresses well by day 20

I punted thru midJan , but can see how the post Jan 20 is right. The post 20th period could still have a bit of a lag but the cold is very close by so maybe it comes quick. I am just more focused on Feb

The longer you force over one spot the higher the chance you upwell them. The guidance in the CFS and EPS rotate the MJO out towards 7 by day 10 to 15.

Either is the 30c water out near 180

I think even the EPS Chi 200 show the MJO working into p8. Careful with RIMM plots they are not the best to use. I would expect this warm period to continue towards later in the month , but just like the Nov 1 - Dec 20 cold ended , so too will the warmth.

Yes we are going to get warm again , so when we total it all up we will have a erased a full month of winter, Dec 20 - Jan 20. And losing that portion of prime time winter stings. But winter is not dead. The EPS and GEFS start to flatten the ridge out in the L/R and CFS wants to take the MJO into p8 between day 15 - 20. The result would be that winter in some form would return at the back end of the month. If the CFS is right winter will return as that wants to force in 7/8/1.

These are about 2 to 3 degrees colder than in the early December storm. Something to watch for if LP does in fact develop like the Euro says.

This still looks to be on target. Then the break is a full 15 days. Even if a piece of the W trough does come out like the 6z GEFS implies. I keep hearing about the trough returning after the 20th, I think this is possible ( I guess it`s Jan and you could always snow in a bad pattern ) but for the meantime after this 5 day window which has been talked about for 2 weeks now is open. I think it will take until the end of the month to get back near p8. Don`t be shocked if the Clipper behind the Sunday snow snows all the way to the coast.

When you rotate this strongly into 4 /5 / 6 you are going to blowtorch the east. You don`t have any other overwhelming signal to counter this. Unfortunately this is where we are going.

We will have to see if after the MJO comes back out in 4 if it rotates back around to 8 by mid month like the EPS 200 VPA`s suggest then the last 10 days " may " offer another window. So after a slight 5 day window open between day 5 -10 that window closes again for about 10 to 15 days.

I measured 6 so far, Rossi close to 5, saw Holmdel measurements of 5, PSV measured 6, UNC measured 4.5 etc. Not sure any of those were reported to NWS but those are legit totals by respectable posters. NYC should finish either side of plus 1 after the 1st 20 days finishing - 2.7 Plus 1 for many and 4 to 6 inches for several posters near the coast for December is a decent month considering some of the recent December`s.

This cuts across by day 8 I am plus 1 for the month , but where is the "warmth" in the L/R ? That would snow all the way to the M/D line. The reason the 2ms aren`t that cold N to s BN is because the source region is Meh. But +1 / -1 in mid Jan would be - -8 / -10 in early December. There`s no " warmth " in the L/R

The problem is your not centering the Positive over the deepest concentration, if we did, that Pos would be bleeding into W Canada and we would be fine. The positive is setting up on the periphery out S of the Aleutians.

Colts Neck has 6 in December as does PSV out on Long Island, and I believe UNC in Staten Island has 4.5 , all AN. The city was jumped twice. Not saying it was snowy by any means and my Dec departure is plus 1 as is my Jan departure. ( Feb was always my best month ). But the main issue is the ridge is too far west, we don`t have a fast PAC like last year and the result is the same but how we are getting there is different.

The + AO regime portrayed now is due to the TPV sitting in W Canada, so the heights underneath are higher but not warm. The 9 - 13 is BN for good reason, you are getting pieces of the trough to break off with short wavelengths. Is it transient ( 4 - 5 days ) possible , the ridge out near the Aleutians is a little too far west and doesn`t eject the low heights out of W Canada. Any softening there will allow the negative to drain down along the Rockies and that`s what kicks the SE ridge up. I am not even looking at day 15, I am looking closer in by day 10. Here`s your problem the ridge is too far S and not far enough E , so as it releases the trough does not drive S/E it drives due S. That`s what causes the SE ridge to pop back up. And it should until the MJO reaches p8 and pushes this along.

The main area of concern for most here is that the mean storm path is to the lakes and then it`s cold on the backside with the vortex sitting in Canada. These guys aren`t trading Nat Gas so they are not concerned about 5 day increments. If it doesn`t snow plus 2 for many here may as well be plus 10.

Don, the trough is in for 5 days before that and then the ridge axis backs up. The trough drills in by the 5th And the last piece exits around the 9th You may have snowed by then. The d15 ridge is likely if the trough pulls back , but then the trough will come east again if the MJO can fade into 8. There`s no S/E ridge in the 8 - 12. You have a - SOI burst, you will likely see a response on the E/C in 10 days.

Careful with those RIMM plots they chase convection. The MJO will fade into 7/ 8 after week 2 then you will see where it goes from there.

The same of what ? It`s a 2 firm week break , then the cold will return. The question is for how long.

I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go. 1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th. The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E How long does that last ? It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold or is it in and out after 5 days ? Does the trough just settle down the Rockies once again ? That part is up for debate.