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PB-99

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  1. PB-99
    I punted thru midJan , but can see how the post Jan 20 is right. The post 20th period could still have a bit of a lag but the cold is very close by so maybe it comes quick. I am just more focused on Feb
  2. PB-99
    The longer you force over one spot the higher the chance you upwell them. The guidance in the CFS and EPS rotate the MJO out towards 7 by day 10 to 15.
  3. PB-99
    Either is the 30c water out near 180
  4. PB-99
    I think even the EPS Chi 200 show the MJO working into p8. Careful with RIMM plots they are not the best to use. I would expect this warm period to continue towards later in the month , but just like the Nov 1 - Dec 20 cold ended , so too will the warmth.
  5. PB-99
    Yes we are going to get warm again , so when we total it all up we will have a erased a full month of winter, Dec 20 - Jan 20. And losing that portion of prime time winter stings. But winter is not dead. The EPS and GEFS start to flatten the ridge out in the L/R and CFS wants to take the MJO into p8 between day 15 - 20. The result would be that winter in some form would return at the back end of the month. If the CFS is right winter will return as that wants to force in 7/8/1.
  6. PB-99
    These are about 2 to 3 degrees colder than in the early December storm. Something to watch for if LP does in fact develop like the Euro says.
  7. PB-99
    When you rotate this strongly into 4 /5 / 6 you are going to blowtorch the east. You don`t have any other overwhelming signal to counter this. Unfortunately this is where we are going.
  8. PB-99
    We will have to see if after the MJO comes back out in 4 if it rotates back around to 8 by mid month like the EPS 200 VPA`s suggest then the last 10 days " may " offer another window. So after a slight 5 day window open between day 5 -10 that window closes again for about 10 to 15 days.
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