PB-99

So you are looking at a Jan 20 - Feb 20 period now. You are seeing the same flip you saw Jan 20 - Feb 20 1978 / and Jan 20 - Feb 20 2003

lol

This is where I corrected the EURO to 6 days ago, in it`s last fake loop back.

That would make it about the 3rd time this month before correcting back around. It has wanted to do this over the last 10 days.

The 6z OP run was just absurd. The CFS last 10 days of the month continues to say it`s real .

A return on or about Jan 20 is still on target.

The CFS continues to agree with the idea of where we are going , p8 I posted that splitting the uprights made the most sense And even the Euro is seeing it. The Hovmoller`s and Roundy plots always had this.

A single control run is where a 1 off member could head. Will stick with the ensembles this far out, but obvious there are some extremely cold members in the LR.

Looks right on schedule. Day 9 Day 10 - 15 . Expect Barney to show up.

Thought you were working ?

The L/R GFS as well as the L/R EPS are advertising a full latitude trough. A great full latitude trough was in March 93.

I believe the flip later in the month will be equally impressive

If this does not cut the pattern flip is a lot faster , 16th ish. If it does in fact cut then Jan 20 remains the target date. All in all the guidance is going in the right direction.

I always knew I liked you.

There are more 6 inch snowstorms at KNYC in March than in December. There is plenty of winter ahead.

So what`s left of the real warm up is Jan 10 - Jan 16 and then the GFS fades it away. That is a much quicker flip on the GFS than even I expected if that`s right.

This one is probably not transient Jan 20 target date

1st real transient shot comes back on the 16th now. Chops up the warm up.

You typically don`t run " 6 straight weeks of cold " and I wouldn`t expect that either. But when you total up Jan 20 - March 20 , you may likely find that was your winter.

I will try and answer this the best I can as I see that some others may have missed that " lag " and " slowing " argument Snoski was referring as well. The poster opined that the return of colder weather would be around Feb 15 which is a full 20 days later than the guidance wss/is showing, so first lets address what "lag" he was speaking about. I posted this yesterday, " we will be heading into 7 and then into p8 as I have been posting in here since last Thursday. At that time the MJO Rimm plots were trying to fade the MJO back around into the COD and the concerns at that time ( not you ) was that were going to circle back to into p4/5/6 because of the warm water N of Australia. That was easily pegged as garbage and tossed aside. Now p7 doesn`t bring the trough into the east out body and soul in fact it`s trough is probably just east of the Rockies but I think what people kept missing was that the Neg the EPS was ejecting wasn`t some pig pac poorly sourced negative that once east of the Rockies would just end up down sloping warm PAC air in the east. Typically they are, that`s why p7 isn`t BN and one would have to wait for the typical p8 response. However and another silly argument by some ( again not you ) was what that there had to be " a lag ", again that was also pointed out as garbage because that piece of the TPV the EPS ejects is real LLC air and that undercuts the ridge starting on d9, you can see that as the 0 line is down in N/C , by day 15 it`s in S/C " . I will use yesterday`s 0z z run as it was what I was discussing. Take a look at how fast the TPV ejects, it`s into the lakes in 3 days. We are prob heading away from p6 by this time, but as the forcing moves east that TPV just needed a nudge and it comes. And then it continues through the period. Take a look at how fast that ridge gets pushed on. By this time the actual 0 line is NC. So when referring to the " lag " that he was referring to. Typically in p4/5/6 N America would be torched so heading into p7 YES you would need to wait ( lag ) before you recycled the PAC NW. But as I pointed out, what is sitting in the PAC NW changes the speed at which you will see the effects E of the Rockies. And my point over the last week in here has been to target the MJO returning to p8 by months end and return to a more N winter regime around the 20th as we head towards p7. And I can assure you there were not many takers in here. The next point is the " slowing " of the MJO We were not discussing the deceleration in p6, as that is seen in the RIMM plots. One only needs to go back a little further and see the BS loop the GEFSBC was advertising which had some of the posters opining how the MJO was going to loop back into 4/5/6 " because of the plus 32c water N of Australia. That was the " slowing" that I had to stick aside. I posted a week ago that the CFS made the most sense as it matched the Roundy plots and I expected this go into p7 and then p8 before Jan is up. Here is what yesterday`s GFSBC corrected too and is where I think we are going. Again, the " slowing " was not the actual wave, the poster thought we would loop back and we do not. So here is where I think we are going and have been on this for a week in here. So in closing we are speaking about 2 different slowings and lagging is all. The conclusion by me is that the CFS RIMM/Roundy plots/2 week verification correction between the GFS/GEFS will be right. We head into p7 and that will kick a very well sourced piece of the TPV east and the SE ridge and Torch will begin to get blunted by day 9

The CFS has continued to lead the way. This should be no surprise as the Roundy plots have been showing this for a week now. Here is the GFS / GEFS

Zero lag. And the MJO doesn`t slow. Non of this has any support, it`s complete nonsense.

Ahh ok I read " late Jan ". Kool , we seem to agree now. Here is my position once again, we will be heading into 7 and then into p8 as I have been posting in here since last Thursday. At that time the MJO Rimm plots were trying to fade the MJO back around into the COD and the concerns at that time ( not you ) was that were going to circle back to into p4/5/6 because of the warm water N of Australia. That was easily pegged as garbage and tossed aside. Now p7 doesn`t bring the trough into the east out body and soul in fact it`s Ttrough is probably just east of the Rockies but I think what people kept missing was that the Neg the EPS was ejecting wasn`t some pig pac poorly sourced negative that once east of the Rockies would just end up down sloping warm PAC air in the east. Typically they are, that`s why p7 isn`t BN and one would have to wait for the typical p8 response. However and another silly argument by some ( again not you ) was what that there had to be " a lag ", again that was also pointed out as garbage because that piece of the TPV the EPS ejects is real LLC air and that undercuts the ridge starting on d9, you can see that as the 0 line is down in N/C , by day 15 it`s in S/C. It is why the EPS was faster weakening the ridge in the means. So what does this all mean ? You will start to see the a more favorable 500 by day 9 now. That doesn`t always mean " snow " but surely the suppression of the SE RIDGE, the end to the plus 10 to plus 20 we have experienced during this 30 day period and a N regime at 2 meter. ( late Jan N is all you need ) . But the upper air pattern gets better and the point being driven home here for a week by me was, winter was not over , the SE ridge would get muted and we should return to a more N late Jan pattern by Jan 20. Which will lead into the core of winter Feb idea.