DanLarsen34

1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

It wasn’t insane to say it last night. Velocity couplet and depth of the CC drop suggested it was at least EF4 intensity. Given how little lead time there was to this event (outlook wise), the fact that it was a holiday, and that the area was heavily populated, it could have been worse.

I agree violent tornadoes are extremely rare, but everything in the radar presentation suggested a pretty high likelihood this was one.

I should add: the fatality part I agree with. High fatality tornadoes are very rare, even in a violent tornado situation. 

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Hoosier was right to quash some of the downright insane talk of how deadly it'd be last night....extremely violent tornadoes are rare and maybe(hopefully) this one was not on that caliber.

It wasn’t insane to say it last night. Velocity couplet and depth of the CC drop suggested it was at least EF4 intensity. Given how little lead time there was to this event (outlook wise), the fact that it was a holiday, and that the area was heavily populated, it could have been worse.

I agree violent tornadoes are extremely rare, but everything in the radar presentation suggested a pretty high likelihood this was one.

Just now, jojo762 said:

Everything I’ve seen looked like widespread EF2/3 caliber damage. But I’d venture to bet there is some area(s) with worse damage that would warrant a higher EF-rating. That tends to happen frequently with these type of events. 

Exactly. With the exception of a few like Hackleburg/Phil Campbell, most violent tornadoes produce EF4-5 damage in very small areas during their life cycle. Things get even more complicated when one hits a highly populated area. 

I believe it took a few weeks before Joplin was officially rated an EF5, though that damage was well beyond anything we’ve so far out of Dayton (fortunately). 

I will say, the fact that we are several hours removed from the tornado and there are still no reports of fatalities is very encouraging. This looked like a literal worst case scenario last night. 

This tornado emergency population stat HAS to be one of the highest ever right?

14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah, still having difficulty getting to some of the heaviest hit areas.

That’s why I’d refrain from speculating on strength yet. I doubt we’ve seen pictures from the worst affected areas.

Just now, Hoosier said:

Might have an argument that it overperformed.  Tempting to think it but I'm not sure yet.  Will be curious to see what the final count is.  

Everybody needs to remember that  really bad tornadoes can still occur with lower risk categories.  

Not to mention, the observational data didn’t really support this either. It appears the warm front moved north and the storms were able to latch onto the very favorable orientation of the front. 

The problem we’ve had the past ten days is everything that’s influenced these set-ups has been on the micro level. If we had much more extensive real time data, like soundings closer to ongoing storms, we might have been able to detect those factors sooner. If this isn’t a cry for greater investment, I don’t know what is.

Just now, yoda said:

Latest SWS for that storm only has "capable of producing a tornado" so it must by have lifted

Seems odd since the radar indication is quite strong. It’s kind of in a radar hole, but the velocity couplet is impressive. 

This storm that just passed through Laurelville continues to look high-end. 

Very likely there’s a strong/violent tornado in progress near Laurelville. Debris ball and fallout on reflectivity. 

Just now, Buckeye05 said:

I’m ok. It missed my house. Terrifying night. 

Glad to hear you’re okay! Let’s hope others have made it through this alright too.

Just now, SmokeEater said:

I don't see how this didn't kill people guys, every bit I'm seeing is EF3+. Speculative of course, but still...

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The signature is the worst I’ve seen in a heavily populated area since Moore. Very likely this was at least EF4

Is that an anti-cyclonic tornado to the NE?

F***,  here we go again...

Just now, MUWX said:

Looking more and more likely that this is our first violent tornado of the year...

Alabama had one on March 3 near Smiths Station. 

In case you needed any further confirmation that this is a violent tornado...

Looks like the main circulation is occluding and passing off to a new violent tornado to the east. 

Major debris ball. Shiloh just took a direct hit...

This thing is going to track very close to the heart of Dayton...This is awful

They need to call this a tornado emergency. This is a violent tornado.

Confirmed large, destructive tornado near Clayton. Well defined debris ball and high-end velocity couplet on radar. 

I’d call this a tornado emergency for Dayton metro. If you live anywhere near the city, you need to be in a safe place NOW! 

The Dayton Metro is in serious danger. Looks like a strong/violent tornado in progress near Troy. The other to the south has a strengthening couplet and is moving towards the northern suburbs of Dayton.

These are two textbook tornado producing supercells. One near Akron may have produced a violent tornado, and has a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado on it still. 

Second near Amboy looks set to go nuts now too.