DanLarsen34

Huge CC drop. Here we go again...

Confirmed tornado now with the cell near Kearney. Increasing velocity couplet as well!

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Keep saying it, you’ll be right eventually. 

I don’t get the need to be snarky about it. 1) i’m not making conclusory statements, 2) i’m basing my statements on things like this. 

Quite likely that this was an EF4+ tornado. Major debris fallout on CC. 

Next cell to go may be this one just north of Wichita.

It may be lining out. Still strongly rotating storm, but nothing as tight as what we had 5-10 minutes ago.

Here was the damage video I was referencing. 

If it’s occluding, that’s almost certainly going to put downtown in the direct path of the new tornado. Appears a new one may be forming to the east.

I just saw video from the damage path. Looks very high-end...

Debris ball just erupted after it went through Linwood...

I’m getting Tuscaloosa Birmingham flashbacks with this...

Excuse the language, but holy shit...

This thing is going to pass VERY close to Kansas City in the next 45 minutes. Everyone on the west and northwest side of the metro needs to begin taking precautions now.

Never mind. They finally called it one.

how does this not qualify as a Tornado Emergency? Nearly maxed out velocity couplet with well defined cc debris ball.

Might need to call this a tornado emergency for Lawrence. 

Honestly, the enhanced risk area looks like a 5% risk at best right now. The northeast might need the 10% hatched probabilities or higher. Several discrete cells out there versus a messier mode here ATM.

Remember how we had a moderate risk for tornadoes near KC earlier? Well, if the storm mode maintains itself, one might be needed across PA. Several discrete supercells already. Would be willing to bet this performs more like the enhanced risk we have in the plains.

NWS has confirmed at least EF3 damage in the areas they’ve surveyed so far (BeaverCreek). Matches up really well with what we’ve seen so far.

Crap vection might be an issue already. 

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Exactly, think we mainly agree on this. Lee County this year was rare example of worst case situations that lead to high fatalities (trailer/modular homes and tornado moving extremely fast).

We do. It’s almost always structures like that getting hit that lead to high fatalities, though even then it takes a violent one to usually get there.  

With better built structures, like what it appears we have here, it takes an exceptionally violent tornado (High-end EF4 or EF5), to cause similar or worse casualty rates.

Early reports of fatalities here would have indicated to me that we were dealing with a potential EF5 before seeing the actual damage. Since we aren’t, that would tend to suggest high-end EF3 to EF4. Of course, there’s still search and rescue going on, so there’s a distinct possibility that we haven’t learned of some yet...