Wetbulbs88

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Not trying to be a jerk but the NAM was absolute trash with this storm. It drove a primary up almost into Ohio 3 days ago. 

It showed--BY FAR--the best solution last night. On Monday it's not in its range. 

You see, THIS is a terrible post. But I'm not part of the AmericanWx Mid-Atlantic mafia so only certain people are taken seriously. I've been far more objective with these storms than others. Get over yourselves. 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This NAM?

Maybe you don't understand the context. The pros said they were favoring the NAM. I mentioned this as a potential indicator of problems with our forecast. Some people jumped down my throat. Seems like you've joined the people who choose hostility because it doesn't show snow--but it's particularly strange because it's not even your backyard. 

Would be nice if I didn't have to present the rosiest outlook regardless. If you're not a red tagger here or part of some old school clique, you're not allowed to say certain things. Period. Hence, high school. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This NAM?

Do you have selective thinking or something? Or were you asleep six hours before the storm? 

Some of you act like you're in high school. 

Yet again, when I pointed to the pros favoring the NAM, I got roasted. 'Broken record'. People don't like the truth. 

All sleet 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Its easy to choose the warmest/least snowiest model so if they go with the NAM...so be it. Dosent mean its going to  be an all sleet because the pro guys are favoring that model

Right...yet all I said is that it was probably not the best sign that they were...

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol...what are you worried about? you think the pros are going to make it sleet instead of snow? Nobody really knows whats going to happen except that its not going to snow

That doesn’t make any sense. This implies that their thinking means nothing to you. I mean unless that’s how you feel then you do you. 

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

the GFS has a remarkable amount of precip fall after 18z tomorrow along and east of I-95 (including a crazy amount of ice), but it's alone on an island.   The NAM is at the other end of the extremes with perhaps the GFS para offering a more realistic middle ground (and more of a light sleet to light snow for most of us scenario, instead of freezing rain)

My worry is that the pros at NWS are favoring the NAM. 

Just now, Scraff said:

Going old school all day today. Why stop!? The only model anyone needs....the good old Weather Channel! That’s how the world used to roll...and we liked it! All this model chaos. Pfft!! Turn the TV on and what they say goes! 5-8!?  Yup. It’s happening Ron Paul! It’s happening. 
 

 

I remember forcing my friends to watch local on the 8s so I could see the radar. 

Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

Whew GFS would be nasty with the freezing rain. This is on top of region wide 4" of snow and almost 1" of sleet.

This could be a really fun event tomorrow. Significant amounts of all ptypes, on multiple models.

 

1. Brutal 

2. The QPF differences between models are just crazy. 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

PARA is colder and wetter than the op

Nice. Gonna check it myself when I’m back with the pups. It’s been super bullish this whole time. 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS incoming!

 

with flurries at 12z

Hopefully the para holds serve. It’s been better for like 48 hours. 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAM was too warm...but it also wasn't dry enough...so wouldn't those 2 kind of offset in the end?

So HRRR precip but not quite as cold? 

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Well, his write up still encourages good things lol

I can’t read the words I just see that I’m in the 6-14 feet zone. 

1 minute ago, Ravens 95 said:

Love the fine print:)

LOL. ICONoclastic. 

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Does this record have another side?

Yeah actually I’ve been pretty unbiased the whole time. But it seems you only chime in when it’s not pollyannish. 

I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. 

16 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain.   

12 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 

Haha oh trust me I know firsthand. 

Just now, high risk said:

Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet.     The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups.     I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area.

And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. 

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event.

NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. 

Wow the NAM pretty much just took away I-95's snow. 

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding.

Yeah I don't want the See Spot Run version. Thanks!

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf

Wow this is a trove. Thanks. 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso!

Nice, are you going to catch any of the goods tomorrow? That band is pushing into Mexico for f's sake.