Wetbulbs88

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Looks perfectly reasonable 

I'd wager it's too generous. 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. 

Obvious but true, and we tend to forget it. I hate to be a debbie downer but in situations like these, we tend to underperform. Not saying that will happen, but I'm looking for 1-3" here. You never know--either the WAA can remain stronger for longer, or the coastal can develop earlier than expected. But when you're trying to thread that needle, you're trying to thread that needle. Then you're trying to catch a decent band either way.   

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Canadian is a nice 2" - 4" event.

Destroys Boston

3K NAM has the Lo developing just in time for some back building. 

3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. 

Yeah. Just got wind of this after a night at the gal's place. Quick glance isn't overly exciting. Looks like a 1-3" at most for my backyard. But with temps not being an issue, you never know, and there's nothing wrong with a 1-3" event. 

25 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Sadly that's all too believable and I could see that verifying. Thankfully it's the HRRR at longer range.

Finally someone said it. It's the HRRR....at longer range....

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

The cutoff is crazy!  I have a friend 15-20 minutes away near Frederick with nothing, got about 2" here in Germantown, and my wife's brother in Bethesda near the DC line got 8!  (I couldn't believe it then I saw a spotter report of 8.5 just down the street from them).  Wow

Bad part is my niece in rural Anne Arundel has no power as with many people.  Hope they get it back quick as tonight will be frigid!

Do the Bethesda friends live in Chevy Chase? Either way they have to be less than one or two miles from me. I haven't gone out to measure (work ugh), but I was eyeballing anywhere between 5-7" by the looks of it. 8.5" seems high!

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Edge should get some pushback here as the low approaches our latitude but the models did a sick job at modeling an exceptionally sick cutoff. I'm very impressed. These are the features that cause us big big headaches. Not this time. 

I didn't consider this. TBH I was ready to call this. Edge is literally 20 miles west of my backyard. 

Back edge about to pass. Really bad cutoff on this one. Just can't seem to win around here. 

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Turf Valley. Moved here last fall from the northeastern part of the county and was hoping it would really make a difference. I'm sure it will in the long run, but so far, I haven't really noticed much difference with the few storms we've had. Old neighborhood is going to beat me today, and the long duration storm last year was probably the only one so far where it made a difference, but we didn't get much from that anyway.

Yeah you're going to need a much longer time horizon to revert to the mean. It will work out in the end. I lived in Burleigh Manor, right near Centennial High. It was actually a fantastic spot up on that little hill. 

Yellows coming through. Heaviest snow of the day. 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If it can only snow like this for another 24 hours, I can tack on another inch.

My hometown! Where you at? Usually we cashed in relative to the big cities but this one's cutoff is brutal. No one gives the NAM any love but it had the cutoff far more correct. 

Just now, diatae said:

Unofficial 5" measurement. 2.5" gain in the last hour. La Plata

Envious. Great spot to me. D.C. is a little too far NW for the higher totals printed last night. 

No one else is going to say this but the NAM had some contours correct. 

Very light snow in CC. Cutoff looks to be SE of DC right now. Nothing burger so far. 

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

As far as wasted QPF before the changeover is concerned…. We actually did alright in that department. Saw very minimal qpf in central md and the all snow line is knocking on our door step. Radar is insanely juicy to the S/SW. The issue for us is the speed of the storm. It’ll be a very quick hitter  

Do you have exact numbers? It’s been raining to beat the band outside so I’d be very hard pressed to see less than .3 or .4 wasted. That’s a lot. And yes, being a quick hitter is equally important. 

6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Some said it last night but that’s why I called for 4-8”. Tons of QPF being wasted. No way we get those insane modeled amounts. It’s not even snowing at 35. 

just hoping for something after a string of non snow winters. 

edit: in Chevy Chase in case my mobile doesn’t say. 

Also meant to frame this in the context of WPC forecasting the changeover to take place rapidly, between 1:00-2:00 AM. We’ve already seen hours of moderate/heavy rain here. 

Climo wins every time if you’re looking at the right context. 

1 minute ago, joc111 said:

Finally, definitive evidence of flakes in NoMA...

36.3/34.2

Thanks! 

1 minute ago, RockabilyJunior said:

Thanks! Someone on this forum posted this once and I had lost the link. This is exactly what I was looking for. Best of luck everyone!

No loop though? 

Some said it last night but that’s why I called for 4-8”. Tons of QPF being wasted. No way we get those insane modeled amounts. It’s not even snowing at 35. 

just hoping for something after a string of non snow winters. 

edit: in Chevy Chase in case my mobile doesn’t say. 

Snow and sleet mixing here in CC. 

3 hours ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Is this for real?  so we live in the riches region on in the nation?  Seems like a sign of the times.

Is this 2020 census? When I looked it up HoCo was 5th. 

18 minutes ago, Amped said:

Changes to rain. If this ends up being DCs biggest event then I don't know anything about weather.

I'm seriously considering moving already lol. 

6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

At this point is probably not a warm layer, it’s just shallow stratus. Clouds aren’t deep enough to have ice nuclei available for snow crystals. So you get weak precipitation as fzdz. 

Seems like a total roast job right around 850 reported around 7PM. But what you said would still stand right? Could formation be shallow enough to 'bypass' that layer? Sounds kind of outlandish since it would be like, fog drizzle, but I'm not really familiar and might be reading this all wrong. 

5 hours ago, diatae said:

My 38lb dog just scampered across the sleet covered grass without leaving a single paw print. We're officially encased. 27/27 La Plata

Took my dogs out to pee before bed. They slipped everywhere. It was kind of cute but also scary because of the porch steps. 

There icing is worse than the ice storm the other day. This warrants a WSW far more than the sleet from this morning. It's outright treacherous. 

28 in Chevy Chase, and it feels very cold with the mist. 

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Non-weather enthusiasts better stay inside. I fear that people may look out, see what looks like their clear wakways and take a spill.

Radar still showing plenty of light returns over the metro area. 

Just took the pups out for a very long walk. Still some slush, especially in the deeper puddles, but shallower pools are freezing fast. If I hadn't been wearing my hiking boots which have good grip it would've been a back breaker. One guy was shoveling his sidewalk, and I don't think he realized he was only making it worse; there was already a significant layer of ice forming in place of the sleet.