Wetbulbs88

People bash the NAM but I think those days are long gone. IMO it’s been as reliable as any model given its range and purpose. I’ve been leaning on it for this storm and think it will provide the more likely scenario. Radar is matching more with its depiction, it’s been in its range for the past 24 hours, and climo suggested the precip shield would expand (particularly with that NW band—rarely do we get a storm that doesn’t provide that crew a boost even if just because of better lifting.

I'm going to call this the cedar point storm because the Rollercoaster ride for this event has been off the chart I love cedar point!

That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected.

Could also just happen in real time.

Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights.

That would be a tectonic disaster.

The axis of heavy precip and evolution are similar.

NAM

I'll add that the 12K isn't any better, but it provides better overall guidance IMO. We'll see tomorrow whether we get less than .5 around here or not.

I disagree. The 3K performs quite terribly from my experience. It TRIES to perform better, but it can't.

Honestly, I tend to read the PBP before heading to TTB myself because I get too much nervous excitement to ruin the drama. But the NAM doesn't look half bad. And the 3k...well I really don't trust it to be honest. For a high res model, I find it to be pretty bad at the QPF side especially when it comes to banding. Not bashing it or anything, but a NAM outcome with dynamic cooling would be an excellent outcome. I'll take a Euro/NAM blend and call it a day.

LOL.

Ugh....south trend when we need north....north trend when we need south. Same story different day. I'm going to hold out hope for a 25 mile jog NW at game time. Or we could have a January 2010 deal where the precip shield is more robust than modeled. Never give up.

LOL...bummer

Excellent point. Bob Chill mentioned this earlier but I’d be surprised if southern MD does better than me. It’s just climo.

Euro?

Yeah that’ll be good to see. Glad to see you were bullish on the first call. Hope it turns out that, fingers crossed.

Very solid. I like my area for this. Too far NW and I know how that story goes.

Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.

What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end? The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego.

The you’re looking for a lie. Otherwise you’re just lying to yourself. There’s really no other way to put it. If we had it your way everyone would just be wrong all the time. Weather is far more nuanced than that and therefore calls for a nuanced forecast.

If you want them to lie to you then maybe. But if you actually keep track of their calls they’re a thousand times better than most.

Then again that’s what makes this game so fun. If it was so predictable it would be nice but these lead ups are half the fun.

Exactly. They’re just giving the truth.

That’s because they all generally suck considering how advanced civilization is.