Wetbulbs88

LOL...bummer

Excellent point. Bob Chill mentioned this earlier but I’d be surprised if southern MD does better than me. It’s just climo.

Euro?

Yeah that’ll be good to see. Glad to see you were bullish on the first call. Hope it turns out that, fingers crossed.

Very solid. I like my area for this. Too far NW and I know how that story goes.

Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.

What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end? The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego.

The you’re looking for a lie. Otherwise you’re just lying to yourself. There’s really no other way to put it. If we had it your way everyone would just be wrong all the time. Weather is far more nuanced than that and therefore calls for a nuanced forecast.

If you want them to lie to you then maybe. But if you actually keep track of their calls they’re a thousand times better than most.

Then again that’s what makes this game so fun. If it was so predictable it would be nice but these lead ups are half the fun.

Exactly. They’re just giving the truth.

That’s because they all generally suck considering how advanced civilization is.

Even posting this probably led to the most recent SREF outputs.Even posting this probably led to the most recent SRES outputs.

Indeed. Seen it a million times. And it’s usually the right call.

Seems like they think temps/lifting will win over modeled precip heaviest to the SE

I CONNED?

When you say radar extrapolation will work this time, Are you referring to the ease with which will be able to track the storm in real time rather than relying on the development or transfer of energy and ensuing creation of energy and precipitation? Or are you using a technical term that I am not aware of?

This might’ve been mostly tongue-in-cheek, but I think they’re easily the best out there in this area. Their ambiguity translates to the most honest forecasting around.

CWP just called for 2-4” with very low confidence. They seem worried about p-type issues which I think is sound given climo. My first call is 3-6 for my little neck of the woods in NW DC.

Resolution wins right? Great, let's book it.

I mentioned this the other day but honestly the NAM has been performing better for quite some time now. Then again you might just be NAMing the NAM because, well, it is, after all, the NAM.

Yeah classic thread the needle indeed. Definitely gonna be tough to pull off so I'd be happy with any accumulating snow here.

Twelve hours ago there were no flags to plant so one step at a time.

What's a more realistic scenario between the two? I'm more prone to trust the NAM--honestly--but of course it's not like the RGEM is never reliable.

3k has higher resolution