WesternFringe

Saw flurries yesterday and last night for the 5th or 6th time this year, which is a good sign. 32° currently under a winter weather advisory tonight here in Augusta County northwest of Staunton.

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) has increased by about 20% over the last 20 years for 5 day lead times and nearly 30% for 7 day lead times. It has increased about 60% for 10 day leads!! Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is down by 23% at 5 day leads. These numbers are all from the GFS and ECMWF.

Sure, if we take a deterministic model verbatim at hour 324.

25 degrees this morning here, now up to 29. Flurries on and off. Had some awesome and intense graupel and flurries yesterday. NW of Staunton in Augusta County

Where in Augusta? It is a BIG county and the western part isn't forecast to get nearly as much as the eastern part of the county.

@CAPE@stormtracker@Scraff How much do 4 packs of 120 minute normally cost? Last time I was here on the eastern shore they were $38.99, but this time they are $18.99

It's right where we want it at this point before the inevitable north trend. To upstate NY.

I think it isn’t weight, but more like an outlier skews the mean phenomenon. eta: but I know you follow it more closely than I do this time of year and I may just be wrong lol

It was high ratio fluff for sure. Added an inch to my 2” yesterday!

2:12 today

Yeah, topped out at around 2”+ here as well. I don’t measure tenths of an inch because I don’t care to know that much! Lol It was fun and pretty but didn’t affect ability to travel, which is a perfect outcome sometimes. Enough to get the kids 2 days off from school and their mom and I 2 days off from teaching as well. 19° with 2 inches plus on the ground northwest of Staunton in Augusta County.

21° and light steady snow. Just recently passed 1 inch. The tree down in the background was taken down by a 60 mph gust the other day! When my wife asked what this storm was going to be like yesterday, I told her it would be like one of those Christmas Hallmark movies where it snows the whole time, but there’s never more than a couple inches on the ground! Lol

Steady, light snow at 18° here northwest of Staunton in Augusta County. Coming up on an inch otg.

Maybe they are looking at the timing of morning and the latest NWS map and temps maxing out at 24?

I am more convinced than ever that this poster is a bot.