I think its' trying to sniff out a very sneeky layer, about 10K feet of lower BL that might get into the southern CT region. Not a forecast, but a caution as we go forward.
I fully agree with you. the HRRR is not garbage. It is a good tool for "now" casting as the storm just begins. It helps you pic out the potential heavier band closer to real time.
Thank you for posting that. You just proved my point. New York stays 15" but Bedford, MA goes up about 5". See, Not a forecast but a hint at the potential and where the fluff factor may be greater.
If we do a kuchera like situation, you would be normal to wetter in the ratio department, Boston would be fluffier but it is negligible here. however you are close to that sleet line/ battle zone.