Geoboy645

I am so glad that I went from almost a foot to 4 inches. Not from SE trend, but a N trend. F*** this winter.

Can't wait for this to end up weak and over Springfield as well.

Well things just got worse in this week's drought monitor. 

This may be a bit early, but considering the incredibly lackluster winter so far for most of the region and the antecedent dry conditions, I think it's time for this thread. Most of the northern and western areas of the Midwest have been dealing with some sort of drought for at least the last 8-9 months if not over a year. Last year was a top 10-15 driest year for much of this part of the region. The extended forecast and climate indices show no sign of this changing anytime soon.  We are entering a second La Nina year, which often lead to some of our hottest and driest years in the Midwest. We have had expanding drought through the winter, which doesn't happen very often in our climate. Now obviously there is the caveat that all it takes is a wet period in spring to erase the drought, but that doesn't seem very likely this spring.

5 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

and then

"the over running alignment is different and the storm is south and weaker"

 

The over running alignment is different and the storm is south and weaker.

12 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That's the last December big dog in my memory. About 10"-12" of heart attack paste (imagine the totals with a better ratio!) where I was living just outside of Stoughton, WI at the time. Brought down a tree limb across the top of our driveway, my dad and I both took off work and spent the entire day clearing the driveway.

979.8 MB pressure recorded at Madison with this storm.

 

December 20th, 2012 says hi. 

Well this is the weenie run of the century for Wisconsin. I mean nothing much, just over 2 feet of snow over a good quarter of the state. Oh and breaking a ton of records for snowfall and snow depth. Good thing this is Hr 252 and totally has a shot of verifying as a 2-4" over Detroit.  Man I couldn't even imagine a storm like that.

3 hours ago, madwx said:

Looks like -21 is the low at the house.  About 15 more minutes of cooling left to beat that.   Airport down to -17.  
 

coldest temps in Wisconsin I could find were -35 in Black River Falls and -32 in Sparta 

Ahh Black River Falls and Sparta, the cold air drainage capitals of the midwest. Without fail those areas are usually the coldest or second coldest in setups like this.

12 hours ago, madwx said:

We had our 15th warmest December in MSN.  

For the year overall it was:

10th warmest

12th driest (1976 was the last time we had a year this dry)

56th least snowiest

Man to have a year drier than not only 2012, but 1988 and 1989 too is insane. And to think if it weren't for the last two weeks of june and the second week of august it would probably be a sub 20" year. Those two periods are legit the only reason why this year didn't enter the drought pantheon years despite the low precip. Very similar to 2005 in that regards. Unfortunately, this coming year is probably going to really suck for drought. We are already having expanding severe drought in the southern part of the state and it's January. If we don't have a wet spring which considering it's a 2nd year Nina is not very likely, we are going to be in serious trouble come May and June. 

Can we please do this? Maybe just a touch SE so I'm not so close to the gradient but other than that this is pretty much perfect.

Wow did the wind just pick up in the last 15 minutes here. Can hear it outside and my dorm door is just going nuts from the pressure differences. What's left of the line is going to be in the next 5 minutes, so this should be fun.

I figured that their should be a thread for this storm at this point with the wind threat and unusual warmth. The models are really starting to hone in on a major wind event tomorrow night for most of the region.  Some runs like the 0z GFS even have 70-75mph gusts for multiple locations, especially in Iowa, Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. This could be the largest non-Tstorm wind threat in at least 5 years if not since the Chiclone of 2010 for some areas. I'm increasingly worried about power outages, as our grid is not really used to such sustained heavy winds. Add in the incredibly unusual warmth for this time of year (Madison looks to break their monthly record) and the Iowa severe threat, this is shaping up to be quite the storm for the area despite the lack of wintry weather.

So far this is looking like a potentially pretty solid hit up here by Green Bay. Models have us in the 6-8" range. If this pans out we wlil actually have a pretty decent snowpack going. Too bad it's going to melt in the torch of the century afterwards. 

Had about an inch from this event. Really only accumulated on roofs and open grassy surfaces, barely anything under trees or on pavement. I was surprised at how long it lasted, all of yesterday and most of the day today had at least some snow on the ground. Overall a pretty classic late fall snowfall.

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Joe Bastardi is one of our greatest minds even though he can be a bit biased 

No, no, and hell no. He's so bad. I don't get why he's so popular among weenies on this forum. Every winter it's like Bastardi said this or Bastardi predicited that. Like who cares? He's never been that good at forecasting to begin with. Plus there's the whole climate change denier thing which just makes him 1000x worse. Like how can you be a weather forecaster and not believe in climate change at this point? I just don't get it.

Can we reawaken the covid thread so the rest of us can ignore this stuff? Please?

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One pre-NEXRAD era event that I wish I could go back and look at on modern Dopper radar is the June 1984 Barneveld, WI F5 which struck around midnight. As we've seen, nocturnal significant tornado events in June occur from time to time in the upper Midwest, including this recent DuPage County tornado and the Wisconsin outbreak from June 2014. However, in those two the tornadoes were produced by a QLCS and the intensity max was low-end EF3. I'd be curious to see whether the Barneveld tornado was an exceptionally violent QLCS tornado, or came from a discrete, classic supercell that somehow managed to persist that late at night.

Barneveld was definitely a discrete supercell. And it was quite cyclic too. Not only did it drop Barneveld, but it dropped an F2 by Rio and then a long track F3 that ended up by Markesan. The cell originated from the remnants of storms from an outbreak in IA/MO the previous day. Those storms even dropped a 130mi+ F4. It is honestly one of the most fascinating meteorological evolutions of a violent tornado. Especially considering the time of night. Here is a paper on it and some of the terrain influences on the tornado outbreak. https://ams.confex.com/ams/27SLS/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper254701/9_126_Frye_courtney.pdf

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This summer will be cooler than average. I am almost 100% convinced 

Saving this for August 1st...

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't be easy to pull off colder than average over a 3 month period... if we presuppose that the drought will continue.  I should look up the last time Chicago had a cooler than average summer while in a bona fide drought.

Not Chicago, but up here at least 1962 was like that. One of only 8 years that recorded 22 inches or less of precipiation and yet only reached 90 degrees or higher 4 times the entire summer.  This year has actually been pretty similar to 1962 so far, so its an interesting analog to follow as the summer goes along here.

Man this weather is just absolutley terrible. 43 and rain at 5pm on May 27th is straight up not ok. I mean who doesn't love a feel-like temp of 33? Hard to believe yesterday was 73 and sunny and the day before 84 and humid. Or you know actual Late May weather. At least the rain will help with the drought and it wouldn't be terrible if it was oh IDK 20 degrees warmer. At least this is only today and tomorrow and then back to at least semi-normal for this time of year.

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hey now.  My grandma hailed from North Dakota, and I can tell you that her town by itself had 50 people.  

Wow that's a major city out there!

What in the literal **** is that GFS run for southern Wisconsin for Sunday. 9 inches of snow?! ON MOTHER'S DAY?! I am up here in Green Bay and I am still annoyed at even the thought of that. Even if you were cut that in half because of it being yknow Mid-May that is still 4-5 inches of snow. Eff that. And its only 4 days out too. Same S**t different year. Uggh.

I figure we are at the point where a drought thread could be useful. Most of the forum has had a very dry last 2.5 months and drought is really starting to spread over much of the region. For instance, Madison has only had .01 inch and a few traces of rain since April 11th. If we do not get a wet week out of this upcoming pattern here we are going to be in serious trouble for this summer. 1915, 1934, 1958, 1976, and 1989 are all years that have had similarly dry springs and with the exception of 1915 all ended up well below average for precipitation. We will see how this plays out, but right now it is looking to be a drought filled summer for the Midwest.

Yeah today way overperformed. Our forecast high was 78 and its now 84 here. Whats crazy is that it was 60 at about 12 noon. So we went up by 24 degrees in about 5 hours, which is pretty crazy.

Meanwhile up here I don't think it ever went above 50. Just a cold, windy , gray day. Really disappointing considering the forecast as of 36 hours ago. Oh well, this is pretty normal for this time of year anyway. I'm just used to being on the warm side. At least this weekend looks really nice as of right now.