Geoboy645

Yeah today way overperformed. Our forecast high was 78 and its now 84 here. Whats crazy is that it was 60 at about 12 noon. So we went up by 24 degrees in about 5 hours, which is pretty crazy.

Meanwhile up here I don't think it ever went above 50. Just a cold, windy , gray day. Really disappointing considering the forecast as of 36 hours ago. Oh well, this is pretty normal for this time of year anyway. I'm just used to being on the warm side. At least this weekend looks really nice as of right now.

Don't you just love it when your predicted high of 72 tomorrow turns into 54 and clouds. Cause I sure don't. 

One plus about an 8-1-2 progression is that they at least bring the chance for a much warmer and wetter pattern the next few weeks. They tend to cause at least a few days with MCS's and 80's this time of year. It would be nice to get a few of them, we really need the rain. 

Oh boy I'm so glad that we are talking about a severe threat on April 20th, it's been a while!

*rereads thread title*

Aww man

Honestly though after the last three years, snow this late doesn't even phase me oddly enough. Then again up here in Green Bay we might be too far north of the snow which is A-ok with me. Crazy to think that we had such a warm first week that we might have snow on the 20th of this month and still end up above normal across most of the midwest. 

45 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I wonder what effect this will have on our weather this year

That's not actually La Soufriere. That is Sarychev Peak in Russia, erupting in 2009 as seen from the ISS.

I can see something more akin to a spike than a true wave. We go up in cases for like two weeks and then crash back down to where we were before and then some as it continues to get warmer and more people have vaccinations.

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Texas is lifting all mask mandates and fully reopening on March 10th. North Dakota, Montana and Iowa have also lifted mask orders in recent weeks.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/texas-biggest-us-state-lift-covid-19-mask-76208428

Uggh couldn't have waited one more month? Didn't they learn from last May? Well looks like we will get our fourth wave then. Although I do wonder in some ways if the winter storms a couple weeks back have affected this, make it so that its a way to jump start businesses again. Also wouldn't be surprised if it's a way to get soem favorablity back with any republicans that may have fallen out of favor after the whole debacle. 

Well the last week and a half of melting has basically killed the snowpack. I don't think I have seen this deep of a snowpack disappear this quickly without a warm rainer. Forecast is looking good for more melting for the next week and i'm expecting here at least to be down to only the big piles by next week monday. While we are not completley out of the woods when it comes to snowmelt flooding, it is looking a lot better then say 3 weeks ago. Now the focus is more on spring rains. The first half of the month is looking rather dry, but the second half at this point looks to be potentially wetter.

46 minutes ago, madwx said:

I know,  March's have been reasonably mild around here recently but April has been the killer month in terms of delayed spring.

See the problem is that it has felt like we get 60 days of March instead of the normal Spring progression. Look at last spring where it was essentially the same pattern with a couple exceptions from March 1st to May 10th. Man I hope we can get warm this spring.

52 minutes ago, madwx said:

An additional fun fact, with the snow depth remaining at 10" at the airport on the 28th, we officially had double digit snow depth the entire month

Now that is something you don't see everyday. Also you guys still have 10" down there? We are down to piles up here for the most part. Would have thought the near 50's on Saturday would have significantly melted it. Guess not.

Just now, hlcater said:

I hear flights to Barrow are due to resume in a few weeks as summer comes around.

Summer you say? That's too warm, dont you know it gets above 32 then?! I think Mcmurdo station might be hiring though .

I'm sorry but what is there to complain about? 75% of the subforum just had one of the coldest and snowiest three weeks in February in a long time. I mean most areas had over a foot of snow OTG at least once in that period. That is a mark rarely seen around here. Yes no one except for the Chicago Lakeshore got a true big dog, although I'd argue the Feb 1st storm around Chiacago was one, but it was still an insane stretch of winter that we having been dreaming about for years.I get it that December and the first half of January sucked, but it shouldn't outweight that stretch at all. And you know what it does suck a bit to have all of that snow just dissapear like this, but I would rather have all of this melt like this instead of it sticking around for two weeks to get rained upon. Plus it is March 1st tomorrow. That means meteorologically, spring is officially here. This is right on time (for once). Heck even with the last week of warmer temperatures this month will still go down as one of the coldest february's ever. I just don't get what there is to complain about at all.

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

3 inches along OH river the next five days...running high from snowmelt

.plus very heavy  rains over the TN valley, .this water can be stored in KY lake but will eventually need to be released into the OH river

 

OH river forecast  as of yesterday, crest at Cario IL 35.7 on march 4th (without most of the rain shown below) 

flood stage 40

record 61.7

 

 

Oh boy I guess its the annual let's flood the Tennessee valley week. Right on schedule too. 

Now that the melt looks to start over the next week it'll be very interesting seeing how the rivers respond. Fortunately it looks to initally be a slow melt which should minimize flooding at least for the moment. At least here everyday this week looks to be 30's and 40's at least at somepoint in the day. Adding some sun and you got yourselves great conditions for long slow snowmelt.

Thanks to this cold wave. Madison is averaging all of 3.7 for the month. That is a -20 departure. Even if we warm up significantly the 2nd half of the month we are almost 100% below average for this month. There is a very good chance of being colder then February 2015 for average when it's all set and done.

Just now, Hoosier said:

I don't think it's LES that far southwest.  More likely an enhanced synoptic band.

Oh. Nvm then.

Wow LES effects almost all the way to Peoria.

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/2021SpringFloodOutlook MKX just came out with their outlook for their CWA. Don't think I have seen them have a general above-average risk for flooding over pretty much the entire CWA in a while. Intresting to note that we are back in the 80% range for Soil moisture in some areas. Again. 

https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_ROF_NFP_SpringHydroOutlook. The NCRFC just came out with their first spring flooding outlook. They are pretty much thinking the same thing when it comes to what areas are likely to flood this spring. They are definitely a little more conservative with their wording though. Which makes sense I guess considering that we are still in mid-february.What was especially interesting was the note that the SWE for the Illinois/Wisconsin snowpack is actually in the top 10 highest ever for that area. Basically if your south of the latitude of the Iowa/Minnesota state line your going to have a higher flood potential than north of it.

Oh god the conspiracy nuts are back. 

Yeah I know. I was thinking more of the central to southern stretches of the river downstream of say Cedar Falls. 

I figured it was time to start this thread as we come up on the first spring flooding outlooks of the year. As of right now Spring Flooding could be a major concern across most of the sub. With an above-average snowpack with high water equivalency and deep frost depth this year could be an above average year for flooding. A quick melt by either a sharp warmup or a rainy cutter could potentially lead to March 2019 or April 1965 style flooding quite easily. Interesting thing to note that most analog years to this one pattern wise featured major flooding in the Midwest during Spring. 1965,2008, and 2011 are the most notable ones. If there is a plus it's that soil conditions aren't nearly as wet as last year and snowpack is average to below-average across the headwaters of the northern major rivers. River Basins I would particularly pay attention to this year are the Illinois, Rock, Fox (Illinois), Fox (Wisconsin), Wisconsin, Des Plaines, Wabash, Southern Cedar, Iowa and Des Moines, and Mississippi. When it comes to the Great Lakes I wouldn't be shocked if Lake Michigan-Huron starts breaking lake level records again after this spring. Especially if we get more snow to the east in Michigan. Overall this year is looking like a potentially bad one for the Midwest. 

TLDR: Bad flooding year possible for the Midwest.

Already our down to -3 at GRB. -12 is our point forecast tonight and we might get to an amazing temperature of 1 tomorrow for a high. We are supposed to have wind chills tonight down to -32. Tomorrow seems like a nice day to stay inside.

Now this is a sight you don't see everyday. 90% of Wisconsin has at least 6 inches of snow on the ground. Just wow. Ofc im in the one of the few areas with barely 6" on the ground cause why wouldnt I be? But man this just such an insane map.