Geoboy645

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

It’s possible we make a push for the record but time is starting to come off the clock quickly. Of course April 14-16 2018 with nearly 16” of snow proved anything can happen this time of year. If we measured snow at the NWS site in the suburbs we’d already be there. Duluth has a very realistic shot with less then 10” to go and 4-6 more weeks of realistic time left. 

Yeah if you guys don't get at least 4-5 inches out of Tuesday's storm, your probably not going to hit the record unless something really stupid happens later in the month. The overall pattern looks to be shifting to warmth or at least average (finally) and while there is a chance for snow for a couple more weeks yet at MSP's latitude. It's pretty hard to do anything significant outside of a 4/13/18 style event which most likely isn't happening. 

ARX has already put out flood watches for the usual spots, the Black at Black River Falls and Galesburg, and the Yellow at Necedah. Tomorrow's storm is going to definitely increase the flood threat. We should be getting at least 1.5 to 2" QPF across most of the Northwoods. While most of that will be snow (again) up there, areas to the south such as the Fox Valley should be mostly rain until Friday night. Some areas around Rhinelander could reach another foot of snow. What this does however is dramatically increase the snowpack for next Tuesday's storm. Which as of rn, is modeled to be warmer and have a farther north heavy rain threat. On top of the snowpack. Next Tuesday and onward could potentially be a significant flood threat because of this, especially with streams running high after tomorrow. 

One thing with this incoming stormy pattern, it is probably going to be a wet first 2 weeks of April across most of the subforum. With areas to the NW potentially still getting snow ala April 2013. Hopefully not to that extent though.

With the increased chances for warmth and rain this week for more northern areas, the flood risk probably starts to rise this week. We could have a decently heavy rain chance on Thursday/Friday up here, on top of whatever remains of the snowpack from this last weekend and with river levels quite high. Could get some rain on the still quite large snowpack up north as well. The extended looks very stormy and wet at least somewhere in the subforum, and we definitely have an increased chance of flooding across the entire subforum over the next two weeks. 

22 hours ago, Baum said:

not buying the madtown total. Arrived in town yesterday around noon. Roads clear looked like maybe 8" stacked up in some places.

We had sun and 40s all day yesterday, plus some sun and warmth in the afternoon after the storm ended at Madison. Madison reached 44 after the clouds moved off. This stuff started to melt/evaporate basically as soon as the storm was over.

This March has been one for the record books when it comes to snowfall at Madison and Green Bay. At Madison, there has been 25.3" of snow recorded this month. This is good for the 4th snowiest March on record. This total also enters 2022-23 into a very elite club of winters with 4 consecutive months of double-digit snowfall. This has only been done 3 times previously. 2007-08, 1992-93, 1985-86, and 1886-87. 07-08, 92-93, and 1886-87 were all Dec-March while 85-86 was Nov-Feb. Along with this, the strech from 03/09 to 03/12 tied for 2nd for most consecutive days with a daily snowfall >1" with 4. 

At Green Bay, the monthly total is 25.5" of snow, which is the third snowiest March of all time. With the caveat that GRB really missed out on the highest totals in both of the major storms this month, so this may be as high as 32" in some areas of the Green Bay metro. Overall, 2022-23 is now up to 73.5" of snow for the season. This slots it in between the esteemed winters of 2013-14 and 2018-19 for annual snow. Which is incredible, considering that Green Bay only had 27.5" for the season as of February 20th. We have recorded 46.1" of snow in 35 days. That is more snow than 18-19 did in the same span of time. 

Overall, the last month and change have been an all-time stretch of snow for both Madison and Green Bay. Now hopefully we are done with this and can finally move on to actual Spring weather. And maybe Friday can be Green Bay's first 50+ of the year...on March 31st...

So final totals ended up being 12.1" at Madison and 10" even at Green Bay. GRB just barely missed out on the max snowband, as there were several 12-15" reports all across the metro. I estimate we recieved about 15" here total at my campus. Today it is sunny and in the low 40's out. The snowpack is melting incredibly quickly. Or rather evaporating because there really isn't that much melt water out. Kind of what happens when you have the sun angle equivalent of September 16th. 

Just insane snow amounts all over the state today. This is going to be one of if not the most widespread 12"+ snowfalls in this state since 12/20/12. This is also now in the top 10 for daily snowfalls in Madison's history, with snow still falling. Today's storm is going to go down as one of the biggest overperformers in the Midwest at least in the last 15 years, if not since 2000. 

I guess I way underestimated how much snow there is out. There's a report from just east of me of 8" of snow. In like three hours. These are some of the heaviest rates I have experienced in quite some time. Insane considering that it's March 25th. Also with this storm we are going to be entering at least the top 10 if not top 5 snowiest Marches all time at Madison and Green Bay.

We are experiencing 2-3" hour rates here right now from this. When I went to bed  at midnight it was practically bare ground, and now there's at least 4" on the ground. The deformation band is just sitting right on top of us.  We are going to way overperform on this storm.

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

All depends on the spring. If it flips hard - trouble. 2014 presented historic SPWE across SMI and we had a slow transition into the warm season and zero hydro issues. Contrast that with 2018's hard flip with heavy rains just as we peaked in depth and  that was a record flood along the Kzoo river basin.

This is where this cold pattern is really hurting us right now. The longer we stay cold, the more snow gets dumped on the snowpack and the higher the chance of a hard flip occurs. It also increases the risk of getting a rain event on such a wet snowpack as well. 

Some figures to help illustrate the amount of snow within these basins.

We are in store for potentially a major flooding event this spring along the main-stem rivers. The constant snowfalls in the Northwoods and Minnesota have created a near record snowpack across much of that region. Several stations are very close to breaking their monthly snow depth records or even their all time snow depth records. This snowpack also has an incredible amount of SWE within the pack. Most of the region is within the 90th percentile for SWE, with a widespread 4-7" throughout the region. These factors coupled with a well above average start to the year for precip to the south have set the stage for a potential major flooding event sometime within the next month along most of the main stem rivers within the Midwest. 

Meanwhile up by the Fox Cities they have been getting death banded. Reports of up to 12.8" on the south side of Appleton as of 8:48 PM. Wasn't expecting that to say the least out of this storm. 

We could be in store for a serious flood event early next week and no one is really talking about it. 

For perspective, that's more snow on the ground than what caused the 2019 Ice Jam flooding and that was our worst or second worst flood event since 2008 here. Like this is Nebraska 2019 levels of rain on snow and look how that turned out. 

(P.S. I figured to make a new thread about this because it's really not that far off.)

31 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I’m not saying we throw them out…or that those 1800s winters weren’t mild.. but it’s well known that average temps in downtown Chicago are materially warmer than ORD, especially earlier in the winter due to marine influence (even with the increase in UHI at ORD over time).
 

If the DJF temps in the 1800s were measured at present-day ORD, they would have been colder (especially at night)…especially since there was no UHI at this location back then. 
 

Regardless of these details, I’m most upset about the fact that there were mild winters in the 1800s. I keep hoping these recent obnoxiously mild winters are a fluke…but unfortunately they don’t seem to be. 

Wow mild winters in what was a much colder time than present day. It's almost like mild winters are part of our climo or something. Crazy.

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very interesting that 1982-83 is minneapolis' snowiest Winter. That was a bad snow Winter just South of there in the Midwest. Sort of a similar set up to this year

1982-83, 2000-01, and 1964-65 have all been pretty similar analogs to this winter with the deep snowpack to the north and an active December followed by nothing south. 2001 and 1965 also had pretty snowy Marches as well, followed by major flooding on the Upper Mississippi. It will be interesting to see if the parallels continue into spring or not. And both 01 and obviously 65 were pretty active Aprils for severe in our region as well. 

If we get substantial rain on top of the snowpack up north after this system. We are going to be in serious trouble for flooding on the stem rivers like the Upper Mississippi, Wisconsin, Wolf, Black, and Chippewa. That's how you get Nebraska 2019 but even worse.

Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state.

23 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Deal. We’ve got the all time seasonal snowfall record of 98.6” from 82-83 to break. Sitting at 55.6” with a good shot at being over 70” by the end of the week. 

If some of the higher model totals verify, you guys could be as high as #3 in seasonal snowfall by this time next week.

The fantasy hours GFS wants to keep demolishing the northern parts of the forum apparently. 

I don't know what's funnier about that GFS run. MSP having 68" out to 384 hrs or Chicago having 0.5" in that same timespan.

Meanwhile up in Madison they are up to 38.9" for the season after this last snowstorm. I would consider this season to be kind of a weird category of a warm and snowy season. We've been pretty consistently at least a little bit above average even with the long dry periods all winter despite it being so warm. 2012-13 has been a pretty good analog to this winter with the very tight gradient between Madison and the Chicago area. Sans the 20" storm in December obviously.

Looking to be 2-4" here for accumulation. A decent little hit but man if we had a typical February airmass this would be a 12"+ hit for the 151-41 corridor. This is the perfect track for that corridor with a low just north of Chicago. Still going to be a decent hit, but it is a little frustrating having such a great track at the perfect time of year be so marginal.