Geoboy645

1 minute ago, madwx said:

yeah, we're going to get some heavy snow overnight tomorrow night.  should be interesting to see how the morning commute compares to last Friday

Probably pretty bad as well. The warm part tomorrow is supposed to drop about an inch of rain which means the roads will be pretty frozen when the changeover happens. We also should have a decent amount of wind with this as well. Thursday morning's commute is going to suck.

So uhh how about that NAM run? Most of the state gets 6"+ except for ...Green Bay and the Lakeshore... Right where I'm at. Yay... At least it'll be a good snowpack at home before the deep freeze.

This upcoming cold blast is reminding me of the Holiday cold blast in 2017-18. Similar timing, and we may also be very cold with essentially bare ground. I really hope we get at least some snow before it, but it's looking pretty doubtful at this point.

Ended up snowing pretty much the entire day yesterday here. Most of it was white rain though, with only about an inch accumulation when it cooled off overnight. This is would be a pretty good setup in about another month, easily could've gotten 5-6 inches or more if it was colder at the surface.

Moving this to the right topic. Something pretty weird could happen in this timeframe. We might get a lake-effect event on the west side of Green Bay. It is pretty hard to get any lake effect off of Green Bay period, as there is only a few weeks where it is still open and cold enough for snow. But to get the wind out of the right direction to get it on the west side of the bay is pretty rare. I don't know exactly how common this is, but I'm estimating this probably only happens a couple of times a decade.  

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty bold to mention that, especially since there isn't good model agreement in the areas of heavier rain and it's not something like a remnant tropical system.  But that being said, you can imagine how it ends up happening if things go right (or wrong).

I mean we have had bad experiences with this type of setup before. 8/21/18 was pretty close to this with the storm motions being slow and parallel to a stationary front. That dropped 15 inches in one night. So better to be a little high on the expectations imo.

Uhhh so apparently Southern Wisconsin is under a day 2 mdt for flash flooding. 

...Great Lakes...
Convection should be ongoing Sunday morning across portions of 
IA/WI/IL. By this time activity should be getting more progressive 
in nature and probably on a bit of a downward trend in intensity. 
Thus the flash flood risk, which is higher Saturday night, should 
be waning Sunday morning, before picking up later in the day. This 
activity will then push across central/southern MI during the day 
and evening. PWs over MI will be near record values, so this 
convection will pose some flash flood risk. At this time tend to 
think the progressive nature of cells will keep the risk more 
isolated in nature, but something to keep an eye on as convective 
evolution/placement becomes more clear.

The bigger flash flood risk may end up evolving Sunday night into 
early Monday over portions of northeast IA into southern/central 
WI and northern IL. A strong mid level shortwave will eject east 
out of the Northern Plains Sunday night, increasing ascent along 
the stalled out boundary and expanding the instability pool back 
northward.  Right entrance upper jet dynamics and an increasing 
low level jet into the front will also play a role in likely 
increasing convective coverage and organization over these areas 
Sunday night. The system is progressive as a whole, which will put 
a limit on rainfall duration. However thickness diffluence and 
weak Corfidi Vectors support some backbuilding/training into the 
increasing low level jet...so some increased rainfall duration 
appears probable.  The low-level inflow is stronger on day 2 than 
day 1, and exceeds the mean 850-400 hPa wind by more, so for 
portions of southern WI, this appears to be the worse heavy 
rain/flash flood day, even if it's not explicitly forecast in the 
model QPFs.  Meanwhile PWs should remain over 2" and near record 
values. Thus the ingredients seem to be there for another round of 
potentially significant rainfall, with hourly rain totals to 3" 
possible where cells train or mesocyclones track.  There is some 
uncertainty on timing of the approaching wave and the position of 
the low level boundary.  Nonetheless, some areas could see heavy 
rainfall for a second day and some potential exists for 3-5"+ type 
rainfall amounts Sunday/Sunday night over portions of northeast 
IA, central and southern WI, and possibly northern IL.  Between 
days 1-2, localized storm totals of 10-14" cannot be ruled out, 
which if it unfolded would be similar in magnitude to the other 
significant flash flood/heavy rain events since late July in St. 
Louis MO, Southern IL, and Eastern KY.  Per coordination with the 
MKX/Milwaukee WI forecast office, a Moderate Risk was hoisted for 
southern WI for Sunday into Sunday night.  There's still a chance 
that a MDT to match could be raised later day for the day 1 period 
(ending Sunday morning), depending upon convective trends later 
today and tonight.  A High Risk at some point for areas near 
southern WI can't be ruled out, depending upon how the convection 
evolves later today through Sunday night.

I've seen this type of event before, this is how we get our major summer flooding events like August 18 or June 08. And it hasn't even been that wet here either, so it is really crazy seeing a potential upgrade to High Risk mentioned.

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't worry, winter will be rocking.

February 28th: After several cold waves of respectable intensity it's disappointing to not get to at least -15.  All in all looking like a forgettable winter with no real cold and pretty lame stormwise as well.  

9 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

MKE did it.




.

Not everyday you have Milwaukee so much warmer than Madison during the summer. Especially with heat like this. Even with UHI, General Mitchell normally has at least some lake influence even if the bulk of the metro doesn't. Madison only topped out at 93 today so far, although that's probably not going to change, a much more pedestrian number.

3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Here's one for the climo stat geeks: Any summer high temp records left at any of the major Midwest/Great Lakes stations that don't belong to 1988, 1995 or 2012?

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

1934 and 1936 say hi. Along with 1955, 1976, 1953, and an assortment of other one off years. So yes there are plenty of non 1988,1995, and 2012 records.

Locally, I'm not very worried about drought for a couple weeks yet. We had probably around 2-2.5 inches this week between Monday and Wednesday's storms, and have had a decently wet last month or so. My area in particular has really scored on several popup scenarios that most of the region did not. The Crawfish is actually at bankfull stage right now from the rain the last week here. We can go about 2 weeks or so as it stands without too much trouble. For most of the rest of Southern Wisconsin, it's more like a week with hot and dry before stuff starts to dry out as like I said, rain has been pretty localized for the most part in certain areas.

On another note, Tuesday and Wednesday will be our 6th and 7th 90 degree days this year respectively. It is really weird to think about, but we are significantly outpacing every year since 1971 when detailed enough records begin for the number of 90s on or before June 15th. Even years like 2012 "only" had 4 at this point in the summer. In fact the only year that I could see that had 5 or more 90s before June 15th is funnily enough last year with the heat wave during the first two weeks of June. It just feels so weird because in between the warm periods in Mid-May and around Memorial Day it's been really cool. Heck we are running a -6 departure rn at Madison which is bound to change here. What an odd couple of months for temperatures.

Madison has a pretty good shot of at least tying if not breaking the daily record on Tuesday. It's "only" 95 set in 1976. I don't think we will hit our record warm minimum though, we will start too low on Tuesday morning for that record. 

Well Madison officially did not cross below 70 on the hourly obs, therefore Madison just broke the record for earliest 70+ minimum ever. The previous record from was 71 on May 18th, 1877 from the looks of things. So not only did we beat it, we beat it by 7 days. And even crazier yet, the low was only 72 degrees. The earliest low that warm wasn't until May 24th, 2010. So we beat out our first 70+ degree minimum by a week and our first 72+ minimum by almost 2 full weeks. Just an absolutely insane heat wave for this time of year. Up there with November 2020 and September 2017 for the A-tier of unusually anomalous heatwaves in our region. March 2012 and February 2017 being S-tier IMO. 

1 hour ago, madwx said:

that is correct.  Earliest 90 since 1980.   MSN tagged 90 again today already which is another daily record, also earliest back to back 90s since 1952.

And we have a really good shot of making that three in a row tomorrow as well. That would almost certainly be the earliest three day stretch of 90's on record.

29 minutes ago, madwx said:

good chance at having our all time earliest min of 70+ today.   87/77 at the house right now, which is again very absurd

I was looking around last night, and I'm not 100% sure but I think yesterday was Madison's earliest 90 since 1980. 2012 wasn't until May 19th and the other 90+ record highs are from before 1980. And I am struggling to think of any other year between then and now that could have maybe had 90's before now. Maybe 1988 but that's about it. The 1980 90+ was the absoutely ridiculous 94 on 4/22/1980, which is probably one of the most anomalous temperature days we have ever had.

Nothing like having all day snow flurries on *checks notes* April 26th. At least in the longer range it's looking like this week will probably the last of the real cold stuff. After tomorrow night we don't get near freezing for lows for at least the next 5 days. Even with still lackluster highs in the 50's, that should finally get us going for greenup around here. About time. 

Models have been pretty consistently showing at least a medium level severe threat on our region on the 12th and 13th. The 12th has triple point potential out in Iowa and the 13th could be a very large part of the forum. The 13th already has most of illinois under a 15 or 30 percent on the day 4-8 outlook. This could be a very active few days of severe weather. 

Today was day 11 with at least a trace of precipitation at KGRB. That has to be getting close to a record for KGRB. We probably have a break here the next two days, but then have more chances of rain pretty much all week next week. Since March 5th we have had over 7.5" of rain, including the rainiest March on record for KGRB with essentially 6". Any semblance of drought here from over the fall and winter is totally gone, at least short-term. It will be very interesting to see if this wet pattern continues later into the spring or if we go back into the dry pattern from fall and winter. Now only if we could get some warmth with this and we will be right back on schedule for green-up.

I give this winter a solid D+. We have had all of 25.6" snow this winter at Madison. And most of that is from the three clippers in the end of january and from a couple weeks ago. We just now left the top 10 least snowiest winters list. We haven't even had a 6"+ snowfall this winter, barring anything weird happening in the next month. The only pluses about this winter were that what little snow we did have on the ground stayed around for quite a while with the cold January. And thanks to this winter's dryness we had an unusually sunny January, or at least it felt like that. And while yes 12/15 was an awesome storm that's going to be remembered for quite a while, it really sucked from a pure winter perspective. Overall just a cold, dry, incredibly boring winter. 

Forgot to post this yesterday, not too much change this week for the most part. Some slight reduction in Illinois and Northern Minnesota, but that's about it.

Yeah the way this winter has been with barely any snow but just constant cold dry NW flow is literally how a North Dakota winter is most of the time. 

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Last report was 21" at 5pm and it still snowing good on that webcam at 7pm, so big time snow there with probably 36-48 hrs left for them. Crawling out the 2nd story window there. 

A couple 9" reports from dwntwn DLH came in.

Washburn has a serious shot IMO of breaking the official 24 hr state record for snowfall of 26" set in 1904 in Neillsville. For reference:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records/all/maxs. Now that does come with the caveat that we likely have had some LE events by Hurley that have broke that record, there's just no stations where the max snowfall normally occurs.

I am so glad that I went from almost a foot to 4 inches. Not from SE trend, but a N trend. F*** this winter.