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Negnao

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    January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    If you look at a snowfall map of the CONUS there is a pretty obvious north south based variance to snowfall. The exception is where elevation and bodies of water influence the distribution. In our local meso climate both exert influence. Because of the warm waters along the coast and the fact we have mountains in our western zones it skews the snowfall gradient SW to NE locally. We also advantage from a dip south in snowfall east of the Apps due to CAD and increased moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. 

    So if you are looking at a meso scale level yes going west within our region helps almost as much as going north. But on a broader scale north is much more important. If you live on the west coast going East helps. I was referencing the broader issue not the meso scale one. 

    Wrt NYC their long term avg is closer to 28”. They had a couple of historically bad decades that skewed their means lower for a while but since it’s been increasing again. 28 v 20 is a fairly significant difference. Plus keep in mind NYC is right on the coast. You go west into North Jersey and get off the waterfront and averages get into the mid 30s quick. Go a little north of NYC and you hit 40!   Results between DC/Balt and NYC/Bos are skewed some because they are right on the coast and we are inland. A more accurate comp between their latitude and ours would be to compare NYC to Atlantic City or Cape May!  

    Philly annual snowfall is 22 and Dulles annual snowfall is 22 and bwi is around 20. I don’t understand why everyone says it doesn’snow around here  Nyc was around 25 which isn’t much more and I would say they’ve had a historic run the last two decades and that has started to skew their average. Yes many years are not snowy but the same holds true in philly and nyc snow records. That’s how averages work but people can be justified in being disappointed in a snowless winter with a mean around 22 inches. Yes, we’re not Rochester but we can expect snow. 

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

    Funny enough I was in DC for that one -- which was probably the only time I ever saw DC jackpot too!

    I got 36 inches in the suburbs just west of dc. Dc only report about 18 for that storm. At least you get to have snow measured at Central Park. That’s a favorable location. 

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    Nah.  Sometimes you just have to smile and be happy for others.  Sometimes you’re flush and sometimes you bust.  The RIC guys ,who are in our forum, have been putting up with us taking a dump on their heads for years. They have been taking it in the shorts like a new prisoner in lock up. If they can take it we can too.  

    They’re in southern VA should be in the SE forum anyway. 

    • Like 2

    The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    I post in both and obviously live N and W of philly. However I rarely ever (if at all) go into imby mode while posting here. I come here to post thoughts, analysis, and general musings of the pattern and threats. Heck I even found myself tracking threats for this region where I knew mine didnt even stand a chance and then rooting you guys on. But yeah there is more discussion here for sure. My home forum is better than it was a few years ago....getting more active slowly but surely. I appreciate this subforum and all the regular posters here that allow those of us to post here that are considered 'outsiders'. 

    Southern PA is similar climatology to much of our forum. The southern VA posters have a more distant climatology than southern PA. Not sure what the fuss is all about. Philly has very similar annual snowfall, temps, and precip to IAD and BWI. 

    • Like 2

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

    Euro digs into Mexico with the PV pressing down further south.  Maybe it’s going to try a cmc type solution.

    To me then trough is too flat and the low doesnt eject out of the gulf soon enough and goes too far east. By the time it makes its move the best case scenario might be like last year’s bomb cyclone favoring the shore. 

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