bjc0303

That time of year where interesting looking baroclinic waves/tracks and strong dynamics have absolutely no moisture to work with due to frontal intrusions into the GOMEX. This upcoming system will bring plentiful rain into the southern plains (needed - see drought monitor). The next system of interest is longwave troughing with both GEFS/EPS exhibiting some agreement (there will be troughing) however timing is different, and details unclear/not even worth discussing so far out. Given yet another frontal intrusion with the upcoming system, looks like the next system, unless significant slowing occurs (possible - models have trended substantially slower with the upcoming wave), what could be a strong surface system could go with nothing but light precipitation in the southern plains. Other than that, looks like a quiet period per most recent run of EPS weeklies, with EC troughing dominant again. Interestingly, the 12z GFS shows something that might have potential. Secondary cyclo. near the RR OK/TX border along dryline/cold front, with some interesting soundings.

Seems like some increased severe potential could exist late next weekend into early next week. Both euro and GFS ensemble systems suggest some degree of troughing, with the euro being particularly strong/paced for a plains severe threat. Will certainly be worth monitoring as we go forward. Strong pacific jet extending towards western US coast should allow for western US troughing to begin to take place. Key feature to watch will inevitably be east coast troughing for moisture scouring. Current EPS solution suggests slow moving system allowing for ~72 hours of moisture return.