bjc0303

To sum up the EPS and ECMWF for the medium/extended range.... Bigly

Just waiting for the GPS to trend to the euro at this point... but the GFS has been very consistent as has its ensemble

Would think the euro caves. GFS has been *very* consistent. On the GFS.. this would favor discrete tornadic supercells by as early as 21-22z. Rapid storm organization would be likely with ample low-deep layer shear early on in the day. Could be a busy day if the GFS verifies.

It is encouraging to see EPS/GEFS show mean western troughing through the end of month and early May..essentially the second half of fcst period is mean troughing to our west.

Operational runs don't offer much of a clue as to whether it's going to be active or not. Operational GFS could never show those troughs again. What should be a welcome sight, however, is this: This lends credence to the GFS, and the GEFS/EPS seem to be in very good agreement on that period being particularly active. Also fits the recurring pattern of active end of month into early month. GWO/AAM forecasts also indicate increased svr potential in that time frame. Do we get a bigly stretch? Tough to say obviously, but keep in mind that an active period in late April into early May can prove bad, given favorable interactions of the still-active jet with dewpoints beginning to commonly approach upper 60s and low 70s...

Unless the 00z ECMWF is strongly different from the 00z GFS, I'd expect at least a 15% contour added for Fri. GEFS and now operational GFS has trended to a more substantial shortwave given weakening trend on dprog/dt with CAA regime in the wake of initial wave departing, allowing stronger lee-side cyclogenesis to occur as a result. Current progs have a weakly capped atmosphere by 21z with strong shear in place. Storms (verbatim) would probably organize pretty quickly, posing a tornado threat early. Weak low level lapse rates and increasing inhibition by 00z look to be an issue and we'll have to see how far that warm front truly makes it but trends are very encouraging! Will likely be a very strongly sheared environment.

think that one had more to do with vertical vorticity near-sfc along the boundary

Environments supportive of long lived supercells (discrete) have a shot. Ability to modify environment.

Gotta be able to anticipate how things are going to evolve. The atmosphere isn't static.

12z ECMWF while somewhat north/west for Wednesday suggests a similar level of severe threat. Friday looks weird. CAA regime really ****s with cyclogenesis.

A little earlier than I originally thought but 00z GFS depicts a *very* potent system impacting southern plains Weds afternoon/eve. Again - next week needs close watching....

European ensemble especially shifts the ridging east particularly near/after 240 per yesterday's 12z run, but in the meantime what looks like an early summer pattern looks to prevail. Somewhat concerning to see so early on but perhaps it's only a short term thing. 12z model suite edit: late next week needs to be watched closely.

Does seem like a pretty quiet stretch ahead. Latest EPS does suggest an extended period of southwest flow aloft towards the latter portion of April.

those cells are well elevated associated with DCVA. no chance of becoming sfc based

You're going out for this? I probably will...perks of living near the typical dry line position..

Latest ECMWF shows what could be a 2-day event on Easter weekend in the high plains. Sunday looks most interesting to me with the arrival of a negatively tilted trough over the southern/central Rockies. ECMWF shows QPF suggesting supercells along the dry line (by 00z MON) from western KS down through the panhandles of TX/OK. Pros: a solid synoptic setup on Easter weekend Cons: Well, it is about 210 hours out... ECMWF also indicates jet extension over pacific that might lead to some western US troughing into late April and early May. Waiting to see what latest ensemble guidance suggests. Pattern looks to remain fairly progressive last I saw.

notable trends on last few NAM runs: -westward shift of triple point and dry line. less veered sfc flow and a more N/S dry line -greater instability owing to both a slightly higher sfc moisture fcst and now lapse rates being forecasted to approach 9 (!) K/km. -while features shift west, low level jet hasn't really shifted so some lessening of low level shear has occurred. It's mixed among models so we will have to see how that evolves over time. Overall a decent early season event if you ask me, although I live near where the dry line will most likely set up. Tor potential looks non zero but still low, but should trends continue it could be okay. Interestingly, this looks like a left mover fcst by the 3 km. I don't think I've seen a left mover fcst by a CAM before, or not very often at least. Encouraging to see CI.

Starting to seem that way, although NAM and GFS exhibited a slowing trend approaching event hour (especially the GFS) with some of the waves earlier in this season...... Maybe we'll luck out? Just about ready to wave the white flag and look down the line

somewhat interesting to me looking down the line is the trend/stubbornness of SE ridge... we will probably see a brief lull in activity but thinking a return to active wx again may be faster than originally thought.

I was mostly kidding. Agreed on GFS. Just odd to me that EPS and euro deterministic are trending to a deeper compact and negatively tilted wave while GFS holds its ground.

Are we just going to ignore other guidance? 12z Euro seemed pretty favorable to me and its ensemble seems to back it up pretty well. No idea what individual members looked like.. GEFS still had considerable spread among members. They seem to be trending in opposing directions, haha.

ECMWF and GFS are in no agreement whatsoever on placement. ECMWF solution lends to a more S/SW or S low level jet. typical of GFS being too progressive. ECMWF also has lee cyclogenesis as expected with its wave/height field whereas GFS just has broad low pressure associated with low amplitude wave/jet aloft. EPS shows pretty good signal and I have to say I think I side with the euro/EPS. If at any point the Euro or EPS begin to trend towards the GFS, I will be concerned. I think this is a case of the GFS being too progressive with smaller waves.. as we have seen several times this spring

trend among the most recent 12z EPS 500 height + anomalies mean suggest a nice severe threat Sunday. Prominent east ridging will allow for quality moisture return. Solid EML advection likely as well leading to steepening lapse rates. Looking like a classic dry line setup.

Euro continues to show a pretty nice dry line setup from SW OK into east kansas. CI looks to be an issue far southwest but ECMWF QPF suggests what would probably be discrete supercells along dry line from central OK into eastern KS. S/SE flow along the dry line currently forecast verbatim, veering to 40 knots S/SW at 850. Definitely one to watch. GFS is in relatively good agreement as well. Fcst soundings show widespread 0-1 SRH ~200 m2/s2, MLCAPE 2000-2500 range.

Monitoring moisture trends into NE OK closely for what may be locally enhanced tornado potential near the warm frontal zone today with any discrete supercell in its vicinity.