bjc0303

GFS showed enough height falls/glancing influence of DCVA from the wave such that CI would be probable along the dry line. Anything less probably results in capping winning out.. You really need large scale ascent to destabilize the atmosphere. Sfc heating is rarely enough.

Not really, they are pretty similar last I saw. However, capping looks to be an issue farther south. That's not to say CI won't happen.. The GFS was forecasting CI and so has the ECMWF. Given how far out it is they will likely expand in later outlooks, but better (or should I say more likely to be focused) large-scale ascent will be farther northeast. I'd expect it to expand in subsequent outlooks.

While moisture looks relatively poor, a brief window for strong supercells appears possible Tuesday along I-44 in NE OK, SE KS, and SW MO. This seems most likely along the SFC low track east along the warm front, where wind profiles will favor 150-200 0-1km SRH, ESRH north of 300 m2/s2, and effective bulk shear 45+ knots. While dewpoints likely will be characterized by upper 50s //perhaps pockets of 60 F//, strong lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft look to yield 1500-2000 MLCAPE by late afternoon Tuesday, with little to no inhibition. WIth potent wave approaching from the west and associated 80 knot jet noses into the warm sector/associated DCVA/large-scale ascent combined with convergence along cold front and INVOF sfc low expected to yield initiation of numerous cells. NAM 3k shows initiation of cells invof sfc low and along cold front. Storm mode would likely evolve into a linear mode but a window should exist for discrete supercell activity. Given aforementioned parameters.. A strong/dominant discrete supercell or two certainly seems plausible. Tornado potential would likely be low until early eve when LCLs would begin to lower..assuming storms were still discrete by then. Wind profiles do have quite a look to them with a solid, classically veering profile with height...Worth watching at this point. Not going to post UH tracks, but 3km NAM has some incredibly strong UH output associated with discrete convection.

00z ECMWF and last few ensemble runs show quite the pattern this weekend into next week. Think first big chase able setup may come from this one. moisture looks great on deterministic and pattern wise, with a southeast US ridge, the pattern looks great. Given gulf conditions.. a substantial moist layer may develop. Optimism is high.

would be more encouraged if models weren't showing a washout of the gulf

Well, I have been eyeing Tuesday for a pretty cool minute now and SPC just put out a day 3 enhanced. This one has been trending the right direction for just about everything. Looks to me like a potential tornado event for sure.

One of the WRFs doesn't look too far off from the ESRL HRRR depicting broken line of supercells

also really digging Tuesday high plains setup

There have been some pretty impressive moisture return cases in history. We'll see how it plays out. SREF mean has generally increased with each run. I was just about to post about the CRP sounding. That is an impressive moisture profile. Eager to see how things change overnight.

pretty good moist return forecast. SREF is encouraging

experimental HRRR looks..active, you could say.

As the GFS trends a little more to the Euro consider me pretty interested in Tuesday. Degree of moisture return will determine how big a day it could be. shear profiles look really nice as a whole on 06z GFS. ECMWF manages upper 50s/low 60s into the TX PH and west OK. Gonna need to watch that trend. If anything this general pattern will help bring some *much* needed rain to the area. Low soil moisture and intense mixing is causing severe underperformance as far as moisture goes, and we do not want that problem lingering later into April or May.

Last night's euro has a decent looking high plains setup Tuesday. Would seem likely to me that supercells initiate on dry line and eventually grow upscale... model QPF seems to support this.

And interestingly the newest GEFS and EPS show more negative height anomalies in the west/desert southwest towards the end of the cycle...so no real end in sight. Courtesy of yet another NPJ extension. Is there any reason this might make for a quiet late April or may? I see people mention this but never based on any logic other than how active it is now.

Yeah, with the quick progression and development I wouldn't anticipate significant mixing. As it was progged 00/06z, reminded me of May 10 2010 in the loosest way possible (rapid changes, fast compact shortwave) although the shear and instability do not compare. I would have to agree that the next series of waves, pending any significant changes to the forecast output, nothing screams anything significant to me. But the Gulf looks like it'll be good by midweek should things pan out with a particular wave. 70s dewpoints forecast across the gulf, yes please

I guess we will see. If it doesn't pan out, the gulf looks to become wide open for future systems shortly after with 70S Tds progged throughout the Gulf, unperturbed, by early/midweek. I will say that something of concern down here is the tendency for GFS and NAM to pretty substantially underforecast surface mixing. Could be offset by minor cloud cover and some greening or really strong moist advection but it could become a problem. Of course at the same time moisture for Sunday has really trended up in the last few runs so we will see

Moisture return looked late. also 00z GFS looked potent out into the SE US a day or two later.

climatology, namely moisture return, doesn't seem to support this. Storm potential remains uncertain for this reason (forecast instability is extremely narrow and limited). Focus shifts to the potential down the road, at least for this subforum. What happens in the wake of the upcoming system will largely determine the impact/potential of the next one. Late in the month (or early April) is where the signs seem to be pointing however.. And remarkably GWO/AAM GEFS forecasts seem to remain in favorable phase space for severe through the entire forecast period. Edit: the first part of my post referenced Thursday. Friday could pan out, but the wind fields, upper jet structure, etc all suggest a line of storms type of event to me. Nothing impressive...yet

Great example... last 4-6 runs of the GFS (maybe more) wiped out e gulf in the wake of the thurs/Fri system. now the frontal push stalls out around gulf Coast.

Well it's not like climo favors anything nice terrain wise. we'll get there. Besides deterministic models, as you know, change pretty quickly. I'm not really holding out for anything big until farther down the line...maybe very end of March or early April. I think many expect an average-slightly AA season.

EPS shows some promise of perhaps something with better moisture return from a large scale perspective laaaaatee in the forecast cycle... but even tho it's an ensemble mean, being so far out there (300+) it could vanish on any run.

Likely to see a pretty active pattern indeed. we will see how it pans out. The pattern overall will be active but strong frontal intrusions in the wake of these high amplitude systems is going to be an issue. I like what the euro is showing however.. esp Friday and into the weekend

I've honestly already lost interest in this upcoming week's days of potential. Wednesday would be ideal for me but moisture doesn't look like it will happen. Thursday is too far east and my schedule doesn't allow for a Thursday chase anyway. There may be bigger things in store the week after, however.

Strong capping

2017031300 euro weeklies are.... let me say... very exciting