bjc0303

Not sure it is ever that extreme. I would bet on a dry line no father east than I 35 unless flow becomes veered overall like previous model runs suggested

Idk if it's completely dead in the water. 00z ECMWF pulled the dry line back closer to i-35 again. So did the GFS. here is dprog/dt for GFS.

Yeah, it's nothing really to worry about. Might get some western US troughing as we approach spring break, which would be absolutely perfect. euro ensemble indicates retrogressuon of the west us ridging around the middle of march. For March though you need a few days worth of return flow. ..so we will see how that pans out when the pattern inevitably changes.

Best way to describe evolution of GFS runs would probably be...wacky. Highly inconsistent and lots of spread among ensemble members. Interested in whether the euro continues its consistency.

00z and 12z Euro advect 60s dewpoints into central/eastern OK ahead of an eastward mixing dry line. winds back to S/SE towards 00z. I'm not even going to address the GFS because it is so 1) inconsistent and 2) crappy, so it's a very low confidence forecast (hence predictability too low). However, playing around with a GFS sounding on sharpPy to incorporate what I would anticipate given the ECMWF thermodynamic and kinematic progged profiles, almost verbatim, would yield 1000-1500 MLCAPE, maybe higher, juxtaposed with strong deep layer shear, strong low level shear, etc... with initiation likely occurring just to the west of I-35. Plenty could and probably will change, but the Euro suggests a pretty intriguing event. I definitely have my eyes on it. Unlike past few systems this one looks to have substantial moisture return aided by an ejecting wave/speed max ahead of the main system that, while producing some overnight convection, doesn't obliterate or mess up the warm sector and helps accelerate low level flow in anticipation of the main wave. Probably too much in terms of details this far out, but I think there will be a severe weather event next week. Moisture return and timing of upper level/associated low level response will be key.

Seems like with recent rains, and more importantly, the early greening on the large scale, and GOMEX conditions, that the potential will exist for a somewhat earlier start to the severe weather season, or at least a brief period early next week where active weather takes place. Current GFS forecasts low 60s dewpoints to reach southern/central OK by next Monday. Some ensemble members become more unstable. The Euro is a little less progressive than the GFS and has low-mid 60s dewpoints in OK by Tuesday. Both depict similar setups, with a NE-SW oriented dry line owing to an SW-NE oriented jet streak aloft/SW flow aloft, but shear profiles look impressive nonetheless. Deterministic Euro is currently significantly more unstable than the deterministic GFS. Interesting to see how things unfold... Even a mix of the two models would yield bulk shear ranging in the 50s-60s, 0-1 km SRH 200+, and SBCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg.

Disappointing to see such a potent system will likely pass through with no favorable moisture. Given a respectable return flow scenario, this is a possible tornado outbreak from OK into KS. GFS and ECMWF trend drier, but trend upward with shear. Oh well.

If the system can slow ~24 hours, maybe. The dynamics of the system look really impressive on both 06z deterministic GFS and 00z Euro. Large area of backed surface winds in the warm sector, along the dry line, etc. Transport of EML supporting steep lapse rates. Everything will be in place - except perhaps moisture. Gonna be interesting to watch. Don't get strong dynamics like that in S plains too often per year.

That time of year where interesting looking baroclinic waves/tracks and strong dynamics have absolutely no moisture to work with due to frontal intrusions into the GOMEX. This upcoming system will bring plentiful rain into the southern plains (needed - see drought monitor). The next system of interest is longwave troughing with both GEFS/EPS exhibiting some agreement (there will be troughing) however timing is different, and details unclear/not even worth discussing so far out. Given yet another frontal intrusion with the upcoming system, looks like the next system, unless significant slowing occurs (possible - models have trended substantially slower with the upcoming wave), what could be a strong surface system could go with nothing but light precipitation in the southern plains. Other than that, looks like a quiet period per most recent run of EPS weeklies, with EC troughing dominant again. Interestingly, the 12z GFS shows something that might have potential. Secondary cyclo. near the RR OK/TX border along dryline/cold front, with some interesting soundings.

Seems like some increased severe potential could exist late next weekend into early next week. Both euro and GFS ensemble systems suggest some degree of troughing, with the euro being particularly strong/paced for a plains severe threat. Will certainly be worth monitoring as we go forward. Strong pacific jet extending towards western US coast should allow for western US troughing to begin to take place. Key feature to watch will inevitably be east coast troughing for moisture scouring. Current EPS solution suggests slow moving system allowing for ~72 hours of moisture return.