Cobalt

Big cluster of lps that take it through the great lakes, still a cluster of weaker waves that take the lp near our latitude though, but it's certainly not the favored camp.

Perhaps 17-18 is more fitting, given how scorched North America was in February

Who are you and what did you do with Ji!???

I will say, the 0z EPS centered the snow mean basically identically to that 12z Euro run. Makes sense given that the window looks wayy more favorable for points North

Seems like the faster the storm ejects out of the SW, the less of a chance there is for the SE ridge to pump up heights ahead of the storm? At least that's what it seems like given that solution compared to the GFS cutting. Hoping blocking can pull through, but as that Eric Webb tweet I posted earlier, that seems to be fleeting a bit

If there's one thing we're good at, it's front end thumps

Since we're on the topic of snowless periods.. how does the early 14/15 winter pattern compare to what we're going through right now? Obviously the pattern we're in has for sure been serviceable, but I'm mainly contrasting that winter and this one because it seems like Feb '15 essentially flipped a switch after a super dormant period with not much domestic cold. I know that was a PAC based shift, but before that from late Nov to late January (outside of the fluke warning level clipper), it was basically a snowless pattern for 60 days, going all the way into what would be the peak climo of late January. What went into that big shift?

Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed..

I feel like out of any time, we'd need this the most now. Make yourselves comfortable, and perhaps we can go 3 for 3? Keep the good mojo inside the building at all times, please.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), we're not the only ones in snow anguish it seems. Out in Jackson Hole for the week and according to some avid skiers, aside from out near British Columbia, there isn't much snow at the big resorts in the Rockies. Park City is managing with a ~20" base depth and they got saved by 10 inches of snow two days ago. Doesn't seem to be much help there in the near future. Maybe we're just in the wrong hemisphere?

I've seen worse trends at 60hrs out?? Congrats SW Virginia though, reminds me of a certain storm a few years back... Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like we tend to have these stretches more frequently in Ninas? Even if the pattern is comparable, it just seems like with increasingly marginal temps, any sheared or weak wave of precip that we get just has no effect. Our Nino in 18-19 had a few nickel and dime events IMBY, and from mid Jan through early March I recorded 6 events ranging from .4" to 2.1" (This is of course not including the 4 inches MBY got from the Feb 20th storm). That pattern was certainly not what we'd call perfect during that time, but there was still a respectable amount of snow events. Perhaps it's recency bias, but it certainly does seem like the gap between Nina and Nino winters is growing with our temp gradient increasing over the years.

2.5" - 12/16-17. Fun WAA that had 1.5"/hr rates turned sleet/freezing rain. Icebox after the storm. .3" - 1/25 Season Total: 2.8"

I admire your optimism. BWI: 10.4" DCA: 6.8" IAD: 13.6" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.2"

I'd like to make a reservation for next season

I don't remember who it was (maybe @Tenman Johnson?), but when the winter was looking to be a clunker in Jan/Feb, someone talked about how a couple winters that had wet summers were analogs and were all pretty crappy winters. I wonder what a wet or dry spring means for a winter. Probably not much

Not feeling the rain for this week. Low energies + low radiation.

Well.. you got it!

It really is. My assumption is there are some people that have some good memories saved to their PC's (a storm thread, a PBP of an epic Euro run, or something like that).

Found this gem. Showcases the Rain-heavy snow changeover of one of my favorite storms (Jan 26th 2011)