RDRY

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the more important thing here is that the GFS held serve synoptically and the ICON made a big shift towards it

if the ECMWF makes the same synoptic changes, it bodes much better for a coastal storm. keep in mind that this is still 7 days out

That lead system will undoubtedly wreak havoc on the models -- not too often you see a follow-up coastal track well west of its predecessor. But the thing is so wound up, I guess it's plausible.

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I was wondering about that. I just posted up above how it looks like the best rates are to your north and west.

North, west and east.

Getting skunked with massive dry slot all day in Lenox.

Already full model agreement on a major storm ... somewhere. Probably won't take much longer for them to narrow the goalposts.

Finally starting to pick up in Lenox. Only an inch or two so far.

Right up to gametime, the Canadian has almost all rain in areas that are mostly snow on all the other models.

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Their base elevation is pretty low tho’…

too bad there’s not a ski area on Savoy Mt.

Jiminy will do well.

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know my elevation isn’t great but I am 12 miles from the Vermont border and this is my forecast from BOX. 

This really seems like an elevation-dependent system.

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2ft for the berks

Still wary of a decent amount of mixing south of Pittsfield.

Berkshire East will be cleaning up.

30 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

4.2" new snow here. Just missed the heaviest stuff to my S and SW where 8-8.5" fell in parts of the Berkshires. Although there wasn't much wind, I think there was a little upslope assist in that area with the SW flow in the mid levels. A decent little event that serves as a nice appetizer for what could be a very high ceiling snow event here late in the week.

Yup. I'd say 8+ in Lenox.

Same for every potentially major coastal at this lead time -- runner, whiff, jackpot, cutter ... until the models start to narrow the goalposts 3-4 days out.

Hoo boy. That block is doing its job for Friday.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s back that PV lobe a little more SW and have some of the energy phase in for 12/12….go big or go home. 

That eventually happens. Just way too late.

Next system may get shredded as well. That's a bomb sitting off Nova Scotia.

That is a mean, angry block. No snow for you!

Above-normal temps every day through 384 on GFS. Yay.

What a crazy pattern. Coastals are tracking in the opposite direction.

Looks like the OP runs are starting to pick up on the favorable pattern. Now for the details ...

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was my early season call, too.

Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

Damn, that Euro track is money for the Berks. What a waste.

Euro taking a beating on this one. Way too high for the coast, way too low for the Berks.

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

Anyone know what the latest HRRR shows?

Meh

This could work.

Surprised a WWA hasn't been issued for NYC, etc. Weather Channel app still has no accumulation for Queens.