RDRY

Still just 1-1.5 in Lenox. The models nailed extreme western MA's donut hole on this one.

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Uhg, the entire NW corner of MA and S VT getting the shaft in round one.  Gonna’ need to trim forecast by 50%. 
 

The band is finally making it up here.

Berkshire bust. Maybe a half-inch so far. Max for this one looks to be about 4.

Pixie dust for first 3 hours in Lenox. Dry air FTW.

3K mucho juicy. NAM is always fun in this range for locked-in coastals.

Two-day pack flooded away. Hard to deny the frequency of these screaming rainers.

Later phase no bueno for Berks.

NAM does funny stuff after its useful range. But this does illustrate the complex interplay of the trailing SW.

Can't feel confident until the NAVGEM, NOGAPS and CRAS are on board.

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Greenfield and Brattleboro have similar outcomes in these events.  It’s nice to have someone new and local on the board.
Since you’re transplanted from the South, I’ll welcome your snow enthusiasm to balance my jaded commentary, when everyone East of us is doubling our totals in some of these events.  

I think we'll do very well in Central and western Mass. Better thermals.

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Snow clowns.

 

 

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a lot to ask for with that spacing.  I don't disagree, just not high odds.

Long odds seem to be the only odds we got these days.

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think it works that way 

You want it to speed up to catch the energy from the first vort slow down and juice up the broad system. That’s my limited understanding 

If that lead wave keeps de-amping, the trailing wave may gain enough space/dynamics to put down 2-5.

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s the benefit ? The pope returns to burn down the house ?

That, and the trailing shortwave maybe taking over.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. 
 

Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have. 

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

On the 10th, GFS really flummoxed with the surge of moisture into a very stubborn cold air mass. That evolution should be fun to watch.

No complaints with that Euro run -- GFS with its typical depiction at this lead time to a coastal.

1 hour ago, deathridge said:

Who’s ready to be buried in sweet sweet white stuff?

Interesting how each successive system gains latitude, but outside of the first one rounding the bend late, these are west-to-east deals. At least there's finally an actual northern cold source -- the 850s are below freezing for the entire northeast almost the entire GFS run.

Has the Ukie vanished? I know it's barely a step up from the Nogaps, but the Brits might be getting offended. 

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

This tells me you're not here for the meteorology, only the results.  And that's fine. I'll be the first to admit that I'm not all that into the science.  Persistence isn't a method though. 

I understand most of the teleconnections and follow them here with the charts. It's just an observation that the long-range models mostly seem to overplay their fluctuations, and they ultimately stay within a fairly confined range for most of our winters.

Persistence > teleconnections.

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better looking 0z Runs so far

21,240 minutes to lock it in.

Merry Christmas, and a happy persistence new year.

Euro is fun. Perfect evolution, perfect track, near-perfect climo. Result ... rain into Canada.