Paleocene

Deck pic from my brother's house in Ithaca NY where i have been hunkered down since Friday. 6" was already OTG; then we got a few of lake effect fri-sat; then about 3" yesterday, now in the outer bands of the coastal low getting more stacked on top. Good times. Hoping the metro area looks like this by the end of the next two weeks

Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours. 12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.

minor changes from 00z to 12z at d10 lol

Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. still much to learn!

I have called things wrong before as a n00b but it looks like the euro is about to crank up a weenie run post d8 on 12z... will add maps shortly edit: lesson: do not comment on model runs until they over :-D

yeah *bit* of a difference with the interaction with the NS 500mb low...they stay separate on 18z 12z... gobbles up the NS shortly thereafter.

will it turn the corner? that weak LP north of hte lakes was not there on 12z GFS. primary is much further south this run too

It's about time to crack open a crispy boy and watch the GFS flip completely to rain for the D9 threat dump feet of snow over the metro corridor . Happy happy hour everyone. On a serious note, there is a sliiightly stronger high over the north central plains at D7 on the 18z GFS run. Compared to 12z. Fingers crossed for some digital ice.

Euro (top) versus GFS (next post)

I am a novice but the op euro looks like it is gonna drop an atomic bomb across CONUS around D10

Calling @PhineasC to remind us that he lives in a place where it snows, but it has been warmer than usual there this year, but it still snows there, more so than the MA anyway

Alright, how do we keep this thing south? Pray away that spicy SE ridge?

BWI: 12.2" DCA: 7.5" IAD: 14.5" RIC: 6.0" SBY: 7.0"

I was not debating the lack of recent precipitation, or the current drought status. I was debating your statement "this should not be such a dry time normally," which was about the next 384 hours on the GFS. When I go out to 384 on the GFS (18z) it shows most of the region in the 2+ inch range... which over the next 16 days, would be slightly above average based on the average amounts I posted above.

Grabbed this off wikipedia for 1981-2010 averages at DCA. Looks like February is in fact the driest month of the year, on average. You sure about your statement? Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Average precipitation inches (mm) 2.81 (71.4) 2.62 (66.5) 3.48 (88.4) 3.06 (77.7) 3.99 (101.3) 3.78 (96) 3.73 (94.7) 2.93 (74.4) 3.72 (94.5) 3.40 (86.4) 3.17 (80.5) 3.05 (77.5) 39.74 (1,009.4)

triggered