JB Fins

Looks like NAM wants to PDIII us, expected big accumulations called for days in advance only to have a sleet fest. Again, I can just read colors and have no met skills whatsoever.

Sincere condolences...hope he was at peace and that it was at an end of a good, long run of life.

No way yoda, number of times we out accumulate you is like comparing Pens cups to Caps cups, not fair. Although, liking this season.

To the northern shift...Euro says no and RVA says...

A little closer with the mix line than models from yesterday but I know for big numbers, you need the juice.

Fingers crossed that we all score, including our southeastern contingent, but hey, rest assured that during the spring, summer and fall months, I am jealous of you, Chris624 (sic em Dawgs!) and StormPC because you all are closer to where I want to be, the beach.

This MUST happen. It's a moral imperative. One thing to break the 1" drought. Another to have a few minor events and the cold we had in January. However, if we get a bona fide, actual snow event without threat of mixing and break the 6" drought, I will label the winter of 2025 acceptable.

Yeah, see my previous post, there is stuff going on today affecting a lot of businesses. Delayed email or not getting delivered, circuits flapping, I know a major artery for internet up and down the east coast goes through Ashburn and they were have trouble earlier, still must be.

Yeah, heard transformer, at least one maybe two, go this morning in the Tuckahoe area. We flickered but then I had to come into the office. Major internet outages happening though, might be sourcing from Ashburn.

Short Pump used to be a tiny little town in Henrico, where I grew up and still live. It’s now urban sprawl all to it’s boundary with Goochland. Lots of housing and shopping. Short Pump Town Center is about the last good brick and mortar mall around. A bunch of people live there and work at either Capital One or CarMax hq’s in Tuckahoe Creek nearby. The traffic blows and I avoid it like the plague unless I absolutely have to go there. A lot of people are landlocked due to jobs, older parents to care for, kids and what not so to suggest people are too lazy to move for snow is asinine.

Yeah, I was thinking the same. While I hate the changeover, it will be more impactful. Might give the kiddos another day of virtual learning, at least in Henrico.

Yeah, pretty sleety here, that has paved surfaces caving.

Yeah, that Route 54 pic in Ashland, just 20 min. north a stark difference to here. I am disappointed as well. We always switch over early, even since when I was a kid calling 268-1212 for the NWS forecast brought to you by C&P Telephone.

Wow, our little thread is melting down? Come on guys, it's snow. Yeah, looks like a bust, again. Yeah, they close the schools nowadays when somebody spills a slushie. Shoot, we have been in the winter desert for years, we actually have some events, be it small, but events nonetheless. I think RIC Airport is traveling to NY so limited access. I guess I could ask Mappy to come in here and drop the hammer.

Pic from a coworker in Chester, VA, been snowing there about an hour. Will monitor his reports for switchover details later.

Light snow in Tuckahoe for the last 15 minutes.

Will see what I can do about pics during breaks but will post.

I guess it would be pointless to post our obs in the main obs thread?

Flaking in Tuckahoe now, probably for about last 5-10 minutes.

Nothing in Tuckahoe yet either.

Hoping for once the switchover is delayed, we always seem to switch over earlier than forecasted. My work has gone virtual today so no good pics from downtown as it falls.

Shoot, there used to be a whole timeline on what model to use when but I think even recent changes have messed that up over the years as it was always the biggies first and then when it got to 48-72 hours it was the NAM, as that was its sweet spot, then SREF and HRRR inside 48.

The HRRR - high resolution rapid refresh. Short range model that I think gets used around here inside 48 hours, just basing that on memory and a quick google.

Yep

Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event.