JB Fins

Hoping for once the switchover is delayed, we always seem to switch over earlier than forecasted. My work has gone virtual today so no good pics from downtown as it falls.

Shoot, there used to be a whole timeline on what model to use when but I think even recent changes have messed that up over the years as it was always the biggies first and then when it got to 48-72 hours it was the NAM, as that was its sweet spot, then SREF and HRRR inside 48.

The HRRR - high resolution rapid refresh. Short range model that I think gets used around here inside 48 hours, just basing that on memory and a quick google.

Yep

Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event.

Wife just got home from JMU visiting daughter, treating roads all the way home on 64. No surprise to maintain budgetary numbers but just sharing. As far as the main board or thread goes, thanks again to RIC Airport for keeping this thread alive when Midlo dialed it back to do, I am sure, more important things, than moderate the occasional train wreck. What grates my cheese, and it has been this way a long time, the folks that preach no regionalism hate from time to time, are some of the biggest offenders. As stated, it's weather, it's going to weather. Don't tell us to move, kids and life events make that impossible for most. So, that is why sometimes, I root for us to jackpot and for them to get shut out although, it is a lot more fun when everybody scores even our more further south bretheren.

Wow, aggressive call this early from 12. I mean, they usually hold off on a map until closer I thought.

Sign me up. Wish it was only 48 hours out.

Yep, we have lived this since the days on Eastern. Shoot, started there on early 2000's and it was the same then, EURO>GFS>NAM>UKMET>CMC YOU ALWAYS WANT THE EURO IN YOUR CORNER.

I dunno, looks like the GFS threw us some scraps, 2", while DC gets 1996 totals. Seems about on track for our playbook. Damn, I gotta stop being so Eeyore.

Yeah, I am down. I just feel like when I posted a few days ago, we have seen this movie over and over. Jackpot zone only to have the models get a better handle on things and we end up fringed, mixing or just plain rain. 34 degrees and a thunderstorm in RVA just sums it up. Or last week's rain on Jan. 31st, just a waste of precipitation. I hope I am wrong but this way I am pleasantly surprised if anything good happens, otherwise I am dubious. I am also one of those jerks that when it's March, I just rather have spring.

It's really all up to Dr. No, if memory serves, and given my age it has been spotty lately, the GFS has been jackpotting us only to cave, not totally, but enough, to the Euro. Would love for GFS to score a coup but history, and this season, suggests we need some Euro love to score.

I know, why do I always feel like we need Raleigh in the bullseye this far out? Maybe Lucy let's us kick the ball this time. Feeling lucky.

All good as you are not a regional snob like others and I depend on you guys for the knowledge. I just need Bob Chill to weigh in, then I know a threat is real. Then, if we get Midlo to post, I will go oil my shovel. Thanks for all that you do to keep this board going. Of course, rooting for everybody to score a big one.

Ah, I missed it, must have jumped ship early. Now go take some Advil for that hangover. All the best tracker, you are the best in that thread.

Thank you guys for posting...it sounded like a funeral in the main thread since they weren't in the jack zone.

Bullseye over a week out? Yeah, that checks out. Next will be Andrew Frieden and other TV mets calling attention to the middle of next week for a chance of significant snow. Then the NOVA/DC crew whines as they are getting fringed and then the models trend north, then the models take away the storm, then the storm reappears but only for Central VA to get scraps and mixing issues while the storm inevitable trends north and the NOVA/DC crew jackpots. Sorry, I am jaded. Give me one more SECS and I am good for the season. Remind me next year though, the key is for me not to get firewood. I have gotten all the years I have been in this house like clockwork and then based on recent seasons, said, nah, I am good this year and we have some excellent cold and at least some wintry precip that hung around. I have been having to buy the bag wood bundles, which I loathe doing, to use in my kindling cracker.

Oddly enough, we will probably be hearing them for real... soon.

Let’s do this. Still hate the name but this is my team since 76. The whole beating Detroit because of 5 TO’s is a weak argument as a defense, scheme and effort have something to do with causing those turnovers. I would point out that is possible to win turning the ball over 5 times…I think I saw it happen in December, just can’t remember who.

I rode out Idalia in there Labor Day Weekend of 2023, wind enough for them to have the fireplaces going, knocked out internet for them and other systems, had to pay cash, no working ATM in the area, so had to be mindful of our drinking tab. Definitely a great place to ride out a storm. I would love to do a winter storm there and whenever I watch the scene in the bar of The Perfect Storm where they are all gathered waiting for news, I think of that trip.

Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road.

If the models stay consistent with what they have done so far this season, and by that I mean, overdoing suppression and trending north, we might just be in a good spot for middle of next week.

Trend is our friend. I have been out of town moving one of our offices so was wondering why the big dog the TV mets were discussing a few days had disappeared off their forecasts. Assume they all live and die by the Euro so if it continues to shift, maybe it makes it back into their extended forecasts.

That's where we want to be, not in the bullseye this far out.

Same here in Tuckahoe. So just shy of 6” so far this winter. Next shot MLK day?