JoMo

It's going to warm up prior to that as the pattern shifts. By the end of the run the colder air looks poised to drop back south down the Plains possibly. Not sure how far south it will get though. The 06z GEFS def shows it dropping farther south.

12Z EPS was more into it.

The GEFS hints at the retrogression with the trough moving back west. The Euro isn't as into it though. The -EPO look remains on both models though so cold air will be available in Canada.

Been busy with some stuff lately. Nothing really exciting going on with the trough in the east, leads to NW flow here which means all the snowfall usually ends up east of here if nothing can undercut the ridge in the west. I was hoping for some retrogression of the pattern with the trough moving back to our area like the models had been showing, but the Euro ensemble hasn't been very excited about that lately. We'll see though since the CFS has been showing that happening towards the end of the month and into Jan.

Yeah the 12z Euro EPS and the 12z GEFS look pretty similar. The projected pattern is getting closer. Hopefully it results in some precipitation as well. On another note, the Chiefs are back to being garbage like usual.

Yeah, if it still looks that way in a week or so, I may actually think it's going to happen.

Man, the 12z Euro ensemble still has that good blocking signal, and it's getting closer in time.

This is starting to look pretty decent.... Now if it actually happens.... that's another story. Heard the Weeklies have a lot of -EPO/-AO look to them week 3+

Ben Noll has been on the 2010-2011 analog kick lately. Not sure what happened down that way, but we had a few snowstorms here https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather

Yeah, the current pattern is boring. Still looking at possible changes around the first week or two of Dec it looks like. Assuming the models don't change. Hoping the Euro corrects farther east with the trough in the west in the long range. The -EPO looks good. Have a good Thanksgiving everyone!

Doug's first thoughts on winter. He thinks it will be cold with near average to slightly above average snow. He's busted the last 2 winter forecasts though. http://headypattern.com/friday-night-saturday-am-blog-quick-look-at-the-winter/

12z Euro ensembles looking more interesting as we head into the first week of Dec with the SW troughing.

All the 'fake' weather websites on FB took that GFS run with the snowstorm seriously and have been spreading it everywhere. I've had people saying it's going to snow a lot next weekend.

Hmm, also wet over OK/TX on the JAMSTEC.

lol, the 12z GFS today....

At least it felt like fall today. Boring boring weather otherwise so far. A lot less 'snowstorms' showing up on the GFS back in Oct and early Nov this year, last year it kept showing them, of course it was wrong, so maybe the opposite happening this year will be a positive moving forward. Just a heads up for those that don't know. Ryan Maue (formerly of WxBell) has been posting his model maps at "http://wx.graphics/" Euro snowfall, precip, temp anomalies, etc.. Even the EPS maps.

First frost/freeze for many looking very possible next weekend.

Euro/GFS keep showing chances for a little snow for someone in the area. Not sure it'll happen though.

IRI update today supports La Nina. (67%) https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/figure1.gif

Interesting and very detailed write up. Looks mild and wet 0 to +1 for this area, eh?

Euro Monthly? has been posted on twitter. Temps above normal Dec, near normal Jan, above normal Feb. Precip below normal Dec, Above normal Jan, below normal Feb. https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/917356329760710657/photo/1

Accuweather looks to be going with La Nina climo https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

Thought I'd try my luck at making the winter thread. Hopefully it won't turn out like the last few winters, and we'll actually have a winter this year. This year looks like it's probably going to be a La Nina year. Strength is still TBD, but it appears it's most likely to be either be weak to moderate. You can check out the latest forecast on ENSO here: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ La Nina years typically give us sporadic cold shots (sometimes very cold) followed by warm ups. It seems to give us a 'backloaded' winter a lot of the time. Meaning Dec is usually warm and Feb is usually colder. The CFS v2 has been showing just that. Latest can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html As far as analogs, I've seen 1999-2000 mentioned and 2007-2008 mentioned. 99-00 was an averageish winter, except for above normal snow in much of AR (minus the far NW portion), and eastern OK. 07-08 was the year of the ice storms.

Tornado hit parts of/near San Antonio it sounds like.

We're almost exclusive winter mode there. Everyone disappears from that thread during the Spring/Summer until it's time to talk about winter again. The big severe thunderstorm outbreaks get their own thread. Otherwise there is/was a thread for short term discussion on flood/severe weather threats outside of the big days. And a thread for talking about the severe threats down the line in the medium range. This thread looks to cover observations.