JoMo

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run.

Springfield with the somewhat useless AFD this afternoon. 18z ICON has a 20" Kuchera amount IMBY. 18z NAM was faster with kicking the system out compared to the other models and had more WAA precip farther south with the initial precip. 18z RDPS looked similar to it's 12z run.

I think the models will probably start to decrease precip amounts and come more in line with what reality will be.

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS

Winter Storm Watches now out for Southern KS and Southern MO.

The 00z Euro AI ensemble was more north as well, continuing it's trend. EDIT: 00z Euro went north again. Beautiful run!

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro.

Nice shift north on the 00z GFS this run. 00z Canadian shifted north as well.

You can use the GFS/Canadian models for total freezing rain QPF on Pivotalweather. It's located under the "Winter Weather" Parameter. Just pick an hour after the precip has ended.

Good old NW trend.

It's still dependent on if there is any phasing or not. The 12z GFS misses the phase and eventually shears the upper low out. The 12z Canadian forces the upper low out which brings the precip farther north/west.

The main model difference is if the SW system comes/shears out into the Plains. Those are the bigger runs 12z CMC/Euro vs the 12z GFS which holds it back in the SW.

Might finally be seeing a change after the first week of January?

Looks really boring. Going to be interesting having 75 degree weather for Christmas though!

Winter Weather advisories out for parts of Oklahoma including OKC and Tulsa.

00z GFS with a NW flow system Sat night producing snow over parts of the area. Really nails central MO

Nice steady snow with that narrow band moving through. Fulfilled my yearly seeing snow before Christmas want early.

First couple of days in December look interesting at this point.

The system around Thanksgiving looks interesting. Maybe colder towards the start of Dec.

Well that was a quick very cold shot for Nov.

I watched the Netflix documentary on the Joplin tornado. Hearing some of the people describe the sky as being black and about the growl of the tornado reminded me of the experience and this thread. Hard to believe that was almost 14 years ago.

Me, and I'd say people here are mixed about it. Some people are really pissed that it will reopen old wounds and others can't wait to see it.

Some of the lightest snow I've ever shoveled. There was just a lot of it.

Looks like around 7" or so total here. Kind of hard to tell.

In addition, it's difficult to get big snowfall in this region without some type of storm system. There was nothing at the surface. The system at the 500 MB level was not impressive and the 700MB winds were from the SW. There was more of a system at the 850 MB level to help with lift at that level. So the entire system was based on the 700 MB and 850 MB response. There was always going to be more QPF squeezed out in the persistent bands of snow and where they set up which tied in with where the various fronts were. With that being said, the GFS/NAM are almost always too moist and generate too much QPF.