JoMo

Wagons Northwest!

The 850 MB front keeps getting farther NW. Hoping that changes.

Going to highly depend on where the 850mb front sets up at which will determine precip type. Nail biter for sure.

12z Euro pretty much caved to the GFS and went back north.

The thing that would mess it up for me would be the 850 MB temps don't cool enough before the bulk of the precip moves out, which would result in a giant sleet storm instead of snow. Arkansas will be probably having this problem for sure.

That initial band now showing up on the 12z NAM across Missouri/Kansas drops some decent amounts of snow. It's 850 MB front induced which currently sets up shop around Joplin this run while lifting slowly north. EDIT: Same story with the 12z RGEM but the 850 front sets up farther south near the AR/MO border.

Wait what? You want Ice instead of snow?

On GFS, 850's are toasty until the 850 mb low passes through.

12z Euro with the big snow hit to Arkansas and S MO.

Still a variety of solutions on the GFS Ensemble members but there's a lot more QPF at play this run.

Definite shift south on the Euro tonight.

11 degrees and snow would be some decent rates on the 18z GFS.

Tues/Wed

Nope, just snow/rain is showing, but you can check precip maps + temp maps to see what falls when it's below freezing.

00z Euro continued the farther south with everything trend. Decent snows for most of the area.

Trend has been for a faster moving Arctic front and a weaker wave.

The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods.

Weren't flurries just expected? Dusting at most?

18z GFS probably going to go pretty nuts.

SGF:

Still a week out and could go horribly wrong, so don't get your hopes up too much, lol

Some big ice storms showing up on the 00z GFS and 00z Euro tonight.

Yeah, looks like some chances for flurries/snow showers wed night/thurs and then maybe a couple of bigger storms the first week of Feb, location uncertain at this time though. After that, things get kind of questionable as the ensembles vary on what happens next.

Unfortunately, that's pretty typical of La Nina. Every now and then one will come together far enough west though.

Overall, just poor timing and energy in the northern stream kind of squashing everything. If you view the 500 MB vorticity image on the 18z GFS at 96 hours (18z Mon) you can see the closed system across the Texas Panhandle. You can also see another piece of energy across SW Montana. If we wanted a bigger storm, we'd want to see that piece of energy over Montana phase into the back of the system in the Texas PH. It doesn't. Also the northern stream kind of shreds the system. It's all about having the correct timing and pieces in place.