EastKnox

Hard to say. I looked at temps on wunderground and it looks like a little warm nose trying to push up west of the plateau ahead of the main warm front.

I've seen that page too. The page hypes about every GFS fantasy storm that pops up. Those thousands of followers swear by the page's "forecasts." I can't help myself to occasionally comment and attempt to educate a few of those thousands.

Yesterday around 5 pm, it appeared to me that a few cumulus had formed in the wake of the smoke. I wondered if the smoke/heat provided a little extra lift in that area, but thought I was nuts for thinking so. I was in the powell area around 8 pm when that second trailing storm passed south of the fire and noticed on radar (and outside observations) that the outflow boundary from the second cell pushed the smoke further north into the halls and powell area. The smell was distinct.

Found this gem from WFO Louisville for all of you severe weather trackers. SvrWx_Fcstg_TipSheet.pdf

I love the Cherokee Purples. I haven't been able to put out a garden for the last 2 years but if I get a chance to grow a few tomatoes this year, Cherokee Purples it is.

Getting closer to the event, I particularly enjoy studying the actual and model soundings for a given location for severe wx; since tons of data is to be had in just one picture.

Thanks for putting this here, I had wondered if there was an easy way to put that part of the discussion into this thread.

I have started this thread in order to have a place to ask questions about weather phenomena and features we see in models. In particular, I'll see some discussion happening about an upcoming weather event, but may not understand all of what I'm reading. I don't want to muck up the main discussion with general questions so I thought that a separate thread could be helpful for us with less knowledge. Of course, this isn't an atmospheric sciences course condensed into a forum thread, but maybe a few tidbits of info will be shared that we can benefit from. I'll start with one that relates to our current situation. I hear a lot of about split flow of the polar and subtropical jets. What is the best way to identify the split flow? Have I identified it correctly in the 250 mb winds chart below, or would you look elsewhere? (500 mb) and do you look for certain heights (like 540 dm in the 500mb chart) to identify the polar jet?