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Scarlet Pimpernel

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  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Hey @Maestrobjwa, thanks for sharing this!! I had heard it was the 100th anniversary of that amazing piece! I had the opportunity to see this performed live many years ago by the Atlanta Symphony (when I lived there)...and it was played on a midnight-blue piano (can't remember who did the honors in that performance!).
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Right. And of course at the same time I wouldn't mind seeing a solution kind of like what the GFS showed the other week for like 4 straight cycles. Obviously that's the upside, but it wasn't a big, phased solution then either as far as I can recall. Just glad to see something decent coming back for this event.
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Me either...I don't speak Shroomchaser-ese!
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing). Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern. That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles. Like day after day after day. And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time. And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so? I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard. I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off. I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof. Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak. So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor. It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened. Anyhow, just wondering...
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Meh...we already hit 80 in late January. 60s will be chilly.
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Looks like your personal version of the @Scraff SBFI is on the increase!
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I've got family in the Cleveland area and planning to go up there (not sure if I'll drive or fly yet). We can observe it right from their deck easily enough and avoid crazy crowds downtown or whatever. Looking at getting one of those solar lens filters for my camera to get some shots, and those eclipse glasses. Only thing is...northeast Ohio in early April...typically can be gray/rainy. But we'll see. Seems we could easily enough drive elsewhere if it's clear somewhere else nearby. It's also the Guardians' home opener, of all things, and they'll be playing right when the eclipse will occur. Closest I ever saw an eclipse at totality was in 1994, there was an annular eclipse that was at its max around Toledo, OH, I was in Columbus at the time and it was about 80% coverage there (as I recall)...it did get pretty dim. It was cool how any sun or light that came through leaves left crescent-shaped shadows on the ground. I was here in the DC area for the big 2017 eclipse but it wasn't as much as the annular one, though still cool!
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    It appears our epic pattern has run into a few elephants along the way!
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    ...Or, phase the living S out of that and give us March 1993 part deux! LOL!!
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Not sure of 2016, but I honestly don't recall at 10 days if it looked rainy (or various rainy solutions). I just remember a week out everything locked in to a major winter event. Now, Feb. 5-6, 2010...I've heard from others (@psuhoffman maybe?) that it was a bit dubious farther out in time once it got on the radar of interest.
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place? And now it's farther west.
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah saw that. I mentioned above that energy (or PV) north of the Lakes maybe looking like it screws us being farther west...but does it almost seem that a phase is in the works (which may or may not be good in the end either for us)?
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Medium/long range thread turns into the Panic Room! @WxWatcher007 Reaper must be face-palming even in retirement, wondering how his legacy turned into that!
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I await the PSU drought-buster storm! But semi-seriously, that energy north of the Lakes being held farther back doesn't do us much favors for the mid-level thermals. Unless somehow, we get some kind of phase in later runs?
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Hmmmmm....weenieness leads to anger at 240-h ops GFS runs, anger leads to hate, and hate leads to the Dark Side! Only at the ensembles and weeklies should you look at this time, as a true Jedi does!
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Seems like we need Gordon Ramsay to eliminate people from Hell's Kitchen in here...
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Very loose interpretation of the word! Perhaps that can be edited to have him saying "...prepared to go down like true weenies!"
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    We need our version of General Patton to whip these soldiers into shape! Or General McAuliffe, saying "NUTS!" to the Germans asking him to surrender at Bastogne.
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    All we need now is Storm 1 and Storm 2!!
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The snow did not fall. The models had nothing good to say. So we sat in the house All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day. I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome, We sat there, us two. And I said, "how I wish There was something we could do!" Too warm at 850. And surface temps did not fall. So we sat in the house. We did nothing at all. So all we could do was take the blinds, and Shit! Shit! Shit! Shit! And we did not like it. Not one little bit. And then a shovel went BUMP! How that bump made us jump! We looked! Then we saw him step in on the mat! We looked! And we saw him! The @Jebman in the hat! And he said to us, "Why do you shit the blinds like that?" I know it is wet And it's half through Feb-rary. But fear not, we'll get our snow So don't commit hari-kari!"
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval. Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go!
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'd let others more knowledgeable chime in, but that was just my back-of-the-envelope thought and assessment. And yeah, it's looking at the ops GFS at 240 hours. I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in that...being an ops run at that time range, plus, well, the GFS. But taken in isolation, I don't care for that flow as it's shown.
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot:
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