Scarlet Pimpernel

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

A bit late, but here's a couple of photos I got from yesterday's event (love the 17-50mm lens!!!). Right around 1.5" snow where I'm at...

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!

Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago.

As long as it's not "f-ing Merlot!" (if you're familiar with the movie "Sideways")!!

Everyone makes the rookie mistakes now and then! Maybe you should have one MORE beer instead!

Moderate-plus snow falling, Chevy Chase area. Nice, big flakes! About 0.5" coating on grass/mulch/cars, and some slush on pavement areas. Will try to post a couple photos later on when I have a chance.

@psuhoffman, many thanks for compiling this! Very informative and useful...appreciate your efforts and time!

Here's a wintry mix I would prefer about now. Shaken, not stirred! And remember...always eat the olive first, don't want to drink on an empty stomach!!

Yes indeed, it is!! A classic...

That looks really...uncomfortable!

Well, it's time that we go "Breaking Away" for the winter then!! (Obligatory pun).

Very true...unfortunately!! The ensembles have been very impressive and were pretty well spot on with the current pattern and look, as bad as it is for anyone wanting snow. People need to better understand the difference between single deterministic runs out beyond a week (or even less) and ensembles through the same time period and beyond. In general, ensembles will be much more reliable and accurate on the overall pattern/flow drivers without wild swings each model run. Not that ensembles don't have their "issues" and cannot be wrong, but you get the idea. (ETA: And yeah, the EPS has been killing it...and killing us, LOL!!)

LOL!! In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing. But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)? Not that it matters at that range so much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of. As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

Hey there, WVclimo! That sounds great, and looks like that trail would be a very pleasant ride! Thanks for the info, I'll have to see if I can ever manage to get out that way for a spin at some point (and maybe bring the camera too)...

Sounds awesome, Bob! Though I don't really do mountain biking myself as I have a "hybrid" bike that's more for roads, I do enjoy a trail now and then if it's reasonably smooth and/or paved. Theoretically, I think, one can put wider tires onto a hybrid, depending on the wheel type, and it can be used for lighter mountain trails. I've actually got somewhat moderate tires on my Trek which enables a decent ride on both roads and some off-road (the tires that came on the bike originally). They're not fast like road bike slicks, but fast enough for me when I'm out there. Long ago in another time, I had a true road bike with the thin, fast tires and I could fly on that damned thing! At my age now, I wouldn't dare do that, hahaha! So a bit fatter tire is nice! I've gotten used to the straight handlebars, after years of the drop bars on the previous bike (though sometimes, I really miss the drop type!!). Treks are good, I have to say! When I went searching for a new bike, I wasn't totally sure what I wanted. I at first looked for a good road bike to "go back" to what I had long ago, but they are just too expensive now and not sure I'd really get the use out of it to justify (but they were damn fine bikes, to be sure!). Like you, $2K for a bike is a bit much for me. Local bike shop where I'm at is a Trek retailer, so they had lots of those...I tried one of their moderate priced hybrids and WOW, what an amazing ride! So I splurged, relatively speaking. Then splurged on the Garmin, haha! And yeah...disc breaks are quite nice!! Never had those before, always had the old-style center pull back in the day!

Thanks for this, PSU! A very good comment and well-reasoned post about what to look out for and what historically occurs if the Pacific remains stubbornly ugly still in about 2 weeks or so. I'm optimistic too, that at least we won't have a total dumpster fire in the end. For now anyway! You make an interesting point too about whether climate change renders a lot of analogues somewhat moot. Along that line I think some time back you suggested that some of the older analogues that pop up might not be as useful now as they once were. I think that would be an interesting area to investigate, and wonder when various analogue years or time periods sort of "time out" now.

Yes, indeed. I went out for a ride the other day in the later afternoon...gorgeous! I know there are enough days around here in winter where one can ride a bike (I do road cycling) without an issue and in reasonable comfort. Bob...you said you do mountain biking? What type...like way off-road stuff with the heavy duty shocks on the front fork, or more on the dirt trails? I haven't done that type before, like I said, I mostly do road stuff or some (mostly paved) trails. I used to do a lot more in my distant past and this year I decided to get back into cycling again. After I broke my finger in a softball game earlier this summer, I treated myself to a decent hybrid-style Trek (nothing fancy, but solid and well-built). Also got myself a Garmin to track miles, elevation, cadence, that sort of thing. The amount of data you can get now is amazing and I am only using a fraction of that. I still remember having an old 12 speed road bike through high school, college, and somewhat beyond (damn fine bike I pretty well rode into the ground after 25 years of use!)...I even had one of those old-style 1980s analogue odometer/speedometer things with a thick wire and a cog that you had to attach to the wheel, and you had to get the specific one to match your wheel size. Now it's all GPS and the speed/cadence sensors are so much nicer to attach (and much cleaner looking too).

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered. But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want". Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all. The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough. And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is. (ETA: Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you! You're just the messenger. Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

Hahaha!! Great stuff! You do know that movie has one of the top ranked "rants" of all time (Chevy Chase when he gets his crappy bonus), an unending string of invective and cursing! I think it's a toss up between Nat'l Lampoon's "Christmas Vacation" and the Steve Martin/John Candy movie "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" as to which has the best movie rant ("Planes..." has Steve Martin at the car rental place going totally berzerk!!)!

Agreed...and a very interesting look. Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential. However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time? Curious what that might do, hypothetically. Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO?