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Always in Zugzwang

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Everything posted by Always in Zugzwang

  1. Hi Wes...yes, I remember your posts back then, it was quite an exciting time! Has it really been 2 whole years now?? I think you're right, in our lifetime we'll probably never see something comparable to that 12 day period from end of January into mid-February. It was truly remarkable. I say this as someone who experienced some of the worst winters (or best, depending on your point of view!) in northeast Ohio. Looking back, I don't think I can recall such a time period there with that kind of snow, with the possible exception of a big lake effect event. Of course, I'm sure we'll see another "big event" at some point, just not so much in such a concentrated amount of time. I'm glad I've got a lot of photos and notes from 2009-10. It's just too bad that this year, I haven't had much opportunity to give the new camera I got for Christmas a good workout on snow photography (and it's supposed to be better in low-light night shots, something I couldn't get very well with the old one a couple of years ago)!
  2. As promised, a few photos... From the late afternoon/evening of Feb. 5: Near the start of the event, snow lining the trees Later in the evening, snow practically pouring out of the sky And, during the day of Feb. 6: Woke up to see this nice image During one of the heavy bands as it went through
  3. Toilet paper and milk, FTW!! I'd like to see what kind of a spike in sales all the local supermarkets had during the week of those two storms!
  4. The whole 12-day period from 30 January through 10 February was incredible in terms of winter weather, and something I've never experienced before. And this is coming from someone who grew up in northeast OH, where lots of snow and cold winters are common.
  5. I've got many of the LWX forecasts and forecast discussions throughout the event, HPC snowfall probability charts, NAM and GFS forecasts at 500, 700, 850, and surface from Friday, 5 February (12Z cycle), and final snowfall reports after the storm...all saved. And, of course a ton of photos! I'll look through them and see if I can post a couple later on sometime. The only unfortunate thing (photograpy-wise!) is that a lot of the snow fell at night, and my camera isn't the greatest for nighttime photography, so most of the pictures are from just before sunset and from the following day. But I did get a few late in the evening, at least. The whole storm was amazing, as was the anticipation and getting ready for it. It was well forecast well in advance, with high certainty about what was going to happen. I remember leaving work early, just as the first light snow started to fall...headed out to Blockbuster (Lackluster!) video to pick up a couple of movies for the weekend, grabbed a small personal Pizza Hut pizza for lunch, and got some fire wood in case the power went out (fortunately it didn't!). Oh, and also picked up a 6-pack of BECK'S beer, on purpose, in honor of the impending storm (thinking of the mythical "BECS" type snowstorm!). Snow initially fell lightly for a couple or so hours but didn't really accumulate at the start. But it did start in earnest and began accumulating around 3PM on Friday the 5th. We had some snow left over from the Groundhog's Day event a couple of days prior (which got lost in the shuffle before the big event). I ended up with 23.5" where I'm at in Silver Spring, MD. Took many Jebwalks through the evening and the following day. Heard some thunder-snow during the evening/night, definitely saw flashes of lightning in the sky. And, heard many transformers blowing too. When I got up the next morning, it was a spectacular scene...and we still had a decent amount of the storm left to go! The only thing that was a little odd was that early Saturday (6th), Sterling seemed to back off some on the snow amounts I recall, and mentioned as much in their forecast discussion at the time...only to up them again by mid-morning. That, and somehow, despite the entire area getting a general 20-30", DCA came in with "only" 17.8, and I remember some discussion about that report on the Eastern WX board. I seem to recall seeing at least a couple of reports within the District itself that were well over 20". Regardless, a great storm all-around!
  6. Is the wind reported in furlongs per fortnight???
  7. Hello and welcome to the forum! I guess you've seen enough of the various...errrr..."personalities" here by now! But seriously, a good place for weather discussion and information despite some of the other crap that flies. Heck, I have to admit the snow weenie in me was almost taken in my Mitchnick's et al's joking about the RGEM! Sort of like the end of that movie "The Sting", where everyone is taken for a ride. To paraphrase the Paul Newman character, "I thought you were reciting the real GGEM, myself!"
  8. So the famed Jebman shovel might be taken off mothballs finally this winter! Sorry to hear you were ill, but glad you're feeling better!
  9. Yes, looked overall not bad. Again, I wonder if that shortwave just to the west is "kicking" it out east more, and if that's shown up before.
  10. Is that some high pressure (relatively) building to the north and west of the low, I see before me? Also, what's that small vort/shortwave just to the west of the main storm? Was that there before, because I wonder if that's making it scoot out to sea more, rather than turn more northeast?
  11. This...thank you! Sure, it's nice (and fun) to see a great-looking ensemble mean. But if the spread is all over the place it doesn't "mean" a whole lot (pun slightly intended).
  12. Yeah, we can hope for that I suppose! Actually I was surprised that BWI had relatively little as areas not far from there got a fair bit more. I got about 2.3" here, DCA had a meagre 0.2", but there were a lot of reports to the north and west of DC of 5-6" or so. Guess it depended on the banding and where they ended up, as I think most areas had a similar temperature profile for the most part if I'm not mistaken. Actually, another storm comes to mind, Feb. 25 ( somewhere around that date?) in 2007. Got a good period of heavy, wet snow that ended as drizzle, about 5" or so of snow accumulated. Surface was barely at or below freezing but it was snowing hard. I heard later on that we had essentially a rather deep isothermal layer.
  13. Just occurred to me, but could this almost be similar to the Dec. 5 snow from last year? I know, the set-up and other aspects are not (necessarily) the same. But in that case, it started with fairly heavy rain in the morning that changed to heavy, wet snow. It was above freezing when the snow began and it only stuck to rooftops and grass, but it did finally start to accumulate pretty well once the boundary layer cooled sufficiently. (EDIT: By "last year" on Dec. 5, I'm of course referring to last winter in 2009, not 2010!)
  14. In a way I agree. But my concern is that it's simply going to be too warm east of, say, the Blue Ridge, unless some cold air at and just above the surface can wrap in awfully quickly while the precip is falling. I can see wet snow falling at some point, but if it's 35 or so at the surface and just below freezing above there, I wonder how much it would really amount to. If I recall correctly from various previous posts yesterday, the idea of a front-end snow to rain to possibly snow is more or less gone...and we're hoping for enough cooling to change anything to snow after rain at the start?
  15. Yeah, well regardless of what happens it's great that New England already got knocked out last weekend!!
  16. BL is not looking good. I guess it would be a cold rain possibly turning to wet snow near the end before it's gone.
  17. Yup...in a situation like this, very true, when there are a wide range of solutions or a couple of very different ideas that "average out". But in a situation where there's decent agreement, they can be more informative. If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are best used for the medium-longer range to get an idea of the overall longwave flow, and in that they excel much more (EDIT: I'm talking more the global ensembles here).
  18. Damned if we do, damned if we don't?
  19. Oy! So I wake up this morning only to find yet more uncertainty especially after the 06Z GFS!! In a way, this is almost amusing and all you can do is shake your head. What's the old joke about some unstable Central American governments...something along the lines of, "if youd don't like the government, it'll change by tomorrow!" Seems to be the case here, if you don't like the look of one model run, wait until the next cycle for something completely different! It seems the only remotely consistent thing being shown is that this storm is occurring later, more like late Tuesday night into Wednesday night, or there about.
  20. Well that's a good point, didn't know the same lettered area is not necessarily an exact "continuation" (and interpretation) into the other region.
  21. Actually as I understood some of the discussion earlier, the 00Z NAM wasn't half-bad if you "extrapolate it out". Temperatures cooling as the precip arrives, 500 center south, etc.? So it might be more in line with the GFS than the GGEM. But I could have misinterpreted some of that.
  22. It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for DC to get a foot of snow...
  23. You'll notice also that the description given in region "C" (which includes DC-Balt) is fairly different.
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