Scarlet Pimpernel

Would that even make double digits??

Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!! And yeah, it is sort of getting there. But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see. We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z). It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles. Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon!

To go full-on chemical geek, I guess he should have typed in "HCO2" there for Howard County!!

Is it even possible to drive that fast on I-95??

Lifebuoy to the rescue!

That's a pretty good way to describe it I think. Shorter vs. medium/long range threads, and specific dated events that have real potential (e.g., Jan. 25). I'd assume that if the Jan. 29 system continues to look real, we'll have a dated thread for that one, too.

Is that the equivalent of "Shut up, Chuck!"??

We need another thread titled "The Gap between the January 25th and January 28th Threats and Potential Threats Beyond the 28th but Not Quite Really Long Range". That ought to clear things up, LOL!!

LOL, I know, was just making the stereotypical joke about the NAM there! In all seriousness, I do recall some discussion about that December event and the NAM's relatively good performance (with the thermals?). Of course everyone jokes about the NAM beyond about 48 hours, but it's not terrible when you get closer to "go" time (36-48 hours and before). Certainly for the thermal profiles. I've also heard the NAM nests are superior to the parent 12km grid.

Another good (bad??) pun, to go with your "fret" one the other day!! That one made you a Guitar Hero!! Well done on the parallel GFS pun! Perhaps it's engaging in para-normal activity too?

You must have seen an early release then, as it came out in 1977!! ETA: 'd by @benjammin! But I also remember seeing that in the theaters when it came out!

That is an interesting development for sure...mix/ice to snow. Not sure if that's shown up in previous model cycles before this?

No. Yup...Al Michaels with the "Do you believe in miracles?"

Ha, touche! As a connoisseur of puns, I appreciate this!

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets??

The "Pus" storm??

Yes, I'll be interested to see if the ensembles continue their trend from the 06Z GEFS...or if they "flip back" to more supporting the ops GFS.

Sometimes, it's a fine line between Schnee and Scheisse!

Well...it will be interesting to see what the GEFS ensembles say, and whether the Euro/Canadian hold on with their idea.

If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit??

It's like that corollary to Murphy's Law: you can't win, you can't break even, you can't even quit the game! Kinda how it feels. But...let's see how things go over the next few days I guess. Seems overall to be a better evolution than a near-full latitude ridge.

Is this the other one that I think @psuhoffman said potentially might be a better setup just afterward?

The arc of every model suite is long, but it trends toward snowfall?

We need a little luck from "Casablanca" and the roulette table at Rick's Cafe!!