Always in Zugzwang

I think that more or less sums it up well, and states what we need. Hopefully this will continue and not go *poof* on us (unless the "poof" is the sound of heavy fluffy snow falling!).

I know it's (way?) off topic perhaps, but since it's been mentioned in context of what the Euro shows for next week's potential, here you go: This is perhaps my favorite photo that I took during the 2009-10 winter. Taken on Feb. 10, during the cold powder bomb.

Same here, though I don't actually know the liquid equivalent I got where I'm at. I got the same amount of snow that you did...and it was Hugh Jass flakes nearly all day long piling up with whiteout conditions.

Great run on the Euro that's for sure! Nice to see it continuing the trend of what we'd like to see. Given how this year has been so far, that would be almost worthy at this point!

GFS has a similar -AO/NAO around that time, though it's more amplified with the trough in the middle of the country so on Jan. 21 we're in the warm air. But the take-away I got was more ridging near the West Coast and up top.

<Ji> Wes just guaranteed us a snowstorm!! </Ji>

OK, I flipped back through more than a couple or three cycles (shoulda done that before, haha!), and see exactly what you're talking about. I had only mentioned part of the idea, but now looking farther back than yesterday it's very clear how the bowling ball idea changes into something totally different as you and PSU were mentioning. That is getting close to...something. Whether it can work out, who knows, but at least it's still got time.

You're (both) referring to the energy to the south, along the MS/AL border, correct? If so, then yes...that's definitely farther west ("hung back") more than previous runs, and it's more separated from the northern stream energy.

Yeah, see what you mean here. Not only is the 06Z trough closer to closing off, but the trough to the west in the Rockies is different too. At 00Z it appears to be more of a "kicker" forcing the downstream shortwave ridging and our trough of interest farther out east. At 06Z, that trough looks a bit weaker and oriented with a bit more positive tilt. For what it's worth, not sure it means a lot. It's all related I suppose so perhaps hard to say which is causing which. On a different subject, PSU...I hope you recover soon from your bronchitis! That's awful!

Very true. This may be obvious, but I'm sure a lot of this is simply due to perception and expectation based on how things evolved so far. We've just come out of one of the coldest (and prolonged, at that) periods in several years with hardly any snow to show for it. If it were like last year, we perhaps wouldn't "notice" the lack of snow so much because we wouldn't expect it in a crap, warm pattern. But we'd still b**ch of course! Add to that the fact we *just* missed out on the big bomb coastal the other week, so it has the feel of Boxing Day 2010 all over again. Offhand, other than the years you mentioned I'm having a hard time thinking of how many were much better or at least pretty good at this point in the winter. You'd have to go back more than 10 years I think...2004/5 and 2002/3 come to mind in that regard.

Yeah, bump that up a bit closer to Greenland and....who knows?! If only.

Oh, I totally agree. Like you were saying, we don't want it to pop the low east/northeast of here, we need it to dig more. Which of course is a bit of a long shot around these parts with most northern-stream dominated systems. But this definitely bears watching. Flipping through previous cycles, I did see the ridging to the west of the system of interest appears to orient more southwest/northeast up in Canada, as opposed to nearly north/south. No idea if that's anything worth looking at, or if it's just the effect of the more energetic wave ahead of it.

May not be in the bullseye, but it sure looks like we're near the "nose"!!

Yeah, looks like it *tries* to perhaps dig a bit more energy to the southwest compared to earlier cycles, but it still closes off the main low in Ohio. Definitely appears more energetic as you say, I was a bit surprised how much precip (snow) it squeezes out for us.

The 12Z GFS sorta-kinda has a hint for something possible mid-week next week as well, though it goes about it a different way and is northern-stream dominated. But certainly some vorts in there that keep a bit of interest. Same for early in the week.

Or like if the Cleveland Indians were down 6-3 in the bottom of the 8th of Game 7, then tie the game on a dramatic 2 out HR, only to lose the Series in the 10th inning by a run to the Cubs... Oh...wait a minute...!!

That is an interesting look. Whether it disappears next cycle or not, that would be one potential way to get something around here.

Well, as they say..."of all the things I've lost, I miss my mind the most!"

OK. We get it, Ji. If it's not showing February 2010, then it's the absolute worst model run of our lives! Crikey!

Yeah, not a bad look there at all! Perhaps move the big red ball a tad farther south/southeast, maybe...and the trough/low off the Pacific coast a bit more to the west or southwest, ideally? In any event, looks like a -NAO at least in the forming stages and trying to return some form of a -EPO (or at least a +PNA).

That is true, but it's one model and it's way up in the air. And my "time estimate" of later next week was just meant to be a very broad range, though perhaps more like late next weekend and beyond is more accurate wording. Don't get me wrong, I'm all out hoping for what you said earlier, that this ends up being relatively short lived and more muted than it appears now. My big wish/hope is that we have something like Jan. 2010 (not in any way saying this is even close to similar!)...i.e., flip back to a cold and good pattern right in time for the close of January after a warm spell. Or a Feb. 2015 kind of deal, usher in a few final weeks with a blast, haha! But that said, I really don't think this advertised pattern breakdown is something we're going to avoid. Also, as others have said, this may not be a t-shirts and shorts torch pattern...but just simply awful for anything wintry.

I wouldn't blithely go whistling past the graveyard (WxWatcher007 might be watching you!) on this, and just assume that because modeled medium range patterns back in early/mid December didn't pan out quite how they initially indicated, then the same thing will happen now. Others have made assessments, but there really is not much way around the fact that the pattern coming up starting around late next week is just plain f-ugly (Bob Chill made a good statement right below yours on this). Now, I agree, there's nothing in particular at this point to say whether it's a short-lived lousy pattern, or something that goes on for a longer time. It seems reasonable, I suppose, to guesstimate that we'll return to something colder or more favorable, hopefully as we close out January and through February. But that's yet to be seen. Like I said previously, I don't think we see this level of cold the rest of the season...or at least not quite as prolonged. And again, we don't need single digits or teens to get good snows. ETA: Even the medium range model runs that looked epic for us in terms of snow back right before Christmas were relatively short-lived and not overly consistent in that depiction. It became clear relatively quickly that we were looking at a more northern stream dominated period and had to hope for some luck. The one thing that was modeled well was the fact we were in for a cold period, even quite cold...as just occurred.

I'm sure every county and state has its own criteria, but what you list is in general true across the board I believe. I totally expected MoCo to have at least a delay yesterday morning, given the winter weather advisory and there were some roads near me that were not yet well cleared (even with only an inch on the ground). Was a bit surprised they outright closed for the day, as roads were fine by mid-morning. Perhaps they were considering the expected winds and falling temperatures later in the day. Likewise, today did not surprise me that they had a delay. Yeah, in some ways the 2 hour delay seems a bit odd, guess it depends on when normal start times are. But at least for MoCo, high school begins about 7:40AM and my daughter's bus time is around 6:55. Middle and elementary school start later (8:30, 9:30). So a delay would begin (high) school at 9:40 with bus time closer to 9...maybe not much difference, but at least the sun is up more; would be more of a difference for middle/elementary school though.

MoCo has a 2 hour delay. Probably worried about buses breaking down in the cold or something.

Your stock price is soaring with the latest medium range indications!