MAG5035

This new thread should hold us over for awhile. I'm starting to feel like a broken record, but until the AO breaks down we are going to remain in the same general pattern we've had largely the last 2 months. The major downturn of the EPO in the progs does offer up a potential winter opportunity later this coming weekend as the monster East Pac into AK ridge (-EPO) tries to press the cold via a very strong high tracking to the north. Again, this +AO regime up over the pole is mitigating what such a negative EPO could potentially do. Another issue is the trough dumping into the west coast (-PNA) It does appear to be enough to suppress the storm track in the case of this storm next week but there doesn't appear to much opportunity for the wave being progged to deepen much. If we didn't have the continued low heights over the pole, we would be probably talking a major period of cold for March incoming with how negative the EPO is forecast to go. Here's todays Euro at H144, first the surface and then the 500mb.. and you can see what this +AO (and -PNA) does despite the monster -EPO. But you can also see that the -EPO tries to press the cold into the northern US despite a 500mb look that doesn't look anything of the sort. It also shows this wave doesn't have much opportunity for amplification. So while we may time this really strong high (1048 in the case of today's Euro) with a wave to get wintry precip. It may not be much, or even suppressed.

Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead. Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.

Very glad to hear that you and your family are ok.