MAG5035

Moderate rates and 23ºF. Approaching an inch.

Harrisburg is much farther from the State College radar than here. The further away from the radar the higher the radar beam is. What’s showing over Harrisburg is about 7,000 feet overhead vs here 50 miles closer to the radar where the beam height is about 2,000 feet. It’s seeing what’s still virga over the Harrisburg area. Snow should be beginning soon over there, likely within the next hour or so.

Light snow has started here, 25/20ºF

Actually has cracked above freezing here at 32.7ºF, with a bit of a southerly breeze. The dewpoint however is all the way down to 1.6ºF. Like I mentioned a few posts ago, the airmass is very dry today.. so all the virga floating around is likely to take a good while to reach the ground. I don’t expect much until the main show gets here in the late overnight hours.

Might as well add some maps to the map collection in here. Here’s the 12z HREF and the 18z NBM HREF is pretty bullish on somewhat higher totals statewide. Here’s the NBM, and a note about it. This isn’t a straight 10:1 OR a Kuchera map. It applies ratios through its other modeled data, which is probably more accurate. So it has Harrisburg for example at 3.0” and 0.21” QPF (about 14:1). NBM is notably drier northern tier and NE quarter of PA. What do I think? I may draw up a map at some point this evening but right now I basically think that this a statewide 2-4” event with 4-6” (some >6” totals) in the Laurels. There exists the chance that we could have a stripe across central or southern PA that may be a more widespread 4-5” area too like what the HREF shows.

We’ve had warm air advection ahead of our next system that started overnight last night and the airmass is really dry today, with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens statewide. Some stations in the Laurel’s actually have below zero dews right now, like JST at -2.

Nice day up here at Blue Knob, 100% of the mountain is open. Barely cracked 10°F for a high up here. Good day for taking some of the trails less traveled.

During the January 1994 outbreak they managed to get a -36ºF out in the Barrens while the low temp on campus was -8ºF. It’s an ideal area to radiate on a calm, clear night.. especially with a snowpack. It’s also one of the better dark areas in C-PA for stargazing outside of the north-central once you get further outside of State College. I got some good pictures during the Geminid meteor shower in December on Tussey Ridge, one of the ridges that makes that valley. Saw hundreds of meteors the night I went up there. I don’t have any fancy cameras, this is just an iPhone pic

Only 1.8” was my total snowfall today. Temps never got out of the teens at any point and down below 13ºF currently.

Light snow and 19ºF. Only have about 1.7” of new snow currently, with a bit of a crust on it. I slept most of the overnight but there must have been a lull and some freezing drizzle at some point here. Definitely didn’t get into better lift and snow growth. Better returns and rates seem a bit further NW over the Pittsburgh/western PA counties.

One thing to note, CCX radar has been out since about 6 or so.

Passing the 1” mark here. Nice steady powder snow falling and 19ºF. Here was my snow map posted before lunchtime today. Not that I’d change it now but I’m fairly happy with it with how the event is evolving. And I did see some of those LSV counties are now warned… something I suspected might happen.

Light to moderate flurries and 19º/9ºF I gotta go elsewhere to watch the Steelers game unless I want to watch it on my IPad. Cable company isn’t coming til tomorrow to reattach my cable line that got ripped off the main line from the wind taking out a tree branch Saturday. No TV or internet, glad I have cellular on my IPad. Had to use my neighbor’s Wi-Fi to get my WS-5000 back broadcasting my obs to Ambient.

Alright here’s my clown map for the storm, I saw a couple of you guy’s mention about snowmaps before the first storm so I’m gonna put one out for a change. Basically this is a general 2-5” event for all of C-PA. Meso guidance showing a stripe of perhaps a bit more somewhere in the LSV, likely coinciding with whereever the stripe of best forcing sets up. I think Adams/York/Lancaster have a half decent shot at needing a low end warning at some point. Other possible high spots are in the Laurel’s where upslope and even better ratios might add a few inches. This event should break NYC/Central Park’s streak without an inch of snow and settle down the Mid-Atlantic/95 folks some.

The southtowns of Buffalo have been getting crushed by a nearly stationary LES band all afternoon. The entire timeframe that game would’ve been played today likely would’ve been a whiteout. I guess this is how cleanup is going haha https://x.com/darrenrovell/status/1746610698400976960?s=20

The morning 12z 3k NAM did have this around lunchtime. These are 850mb winds at 18z (1pm) with a 65kt max in York/Lancaster. That likely mixed down pretty efficiently with the combo of the arctic frontal passage/sunshine/significant cold air advection and westerly winds downsloping into the Sus Valley. The previous 17z frame had the 60kt+ max over the Rou… whatever time bubbler had his 67mph gust. They did have advisories out but sounds like it was a bit more potent than that. Winds should be starting to settle down as we get into the evening.

I think it’s safe to say our phasing big storm potential is probably off the table with regards to Tuesday. However, I do think the wave of lighter snows coming across PA is still viable as we drop in the northern branch trough and try to force some precip development. That’s still on the majority of guidance in various forms. Gonna need good ratios to yield anything advisory worthy, which given the cold column in place should be doable. A 15:1 on a tenth or two of QPF with some decent surface cold would be enough for an advisory event in the Sus Valley. I’m already starting to pay more attention to the high res and short range guidance to get a handle on this. One thing I’m noticing is a precip hole in the south central part of the state. Since this is modeled to be more of a wave now with later and further offshore/weaker coastal development, predominant low level flow is of a WSW component. So that implies potential downsloping off the Alleghenies and a potential precip shadow in play.

I’m sure the state of emergency declaration probably did in any chance of them going thru with the game. You’re either telling people to stay off the roads or you’re not. Pittsburgh’s only a bit over 200 miles from Buffalo, you think Steeler fans or Bills Mafia would actually stay home and not try to go to the game? Haha

Wind gust just took a branch out, which then took my cable line down.

I’m just waiting for the NFL to announce they’re going to play the game Monday night or something. The NY governor declared state of emergency for that part of the state last night. As much of a spectacle that it would be on TV, I dunno how you logistically play the game when it comes to getting the fans there in those conditions with the state of emergency declaration.

I didn’t notice the Mid-Atlantic folks started a storm thread earlier this afternoon, that explains everything haha.

The SE breeze here this afternoon is definitely more feisty than the one with Tuesday’s system. High gust of 31mph. Temp/dewpoint at 40/28ºF.

Extended 18z HRRR is interesting toward the end. Occluded front comes through overnight tonight and brings falling temps back to around freezing tomorrow. There’s the arctic front that then comes through Sat night-Sun morning that sharply brings temps down with the arrival of the actual arctic air. Tries to model a line of squalls crossing the state with it. Perhaps something to keep an eye on this weekend. This feature is showing on other high res guidance like the 3k NAM and RRFS.

12z vs 6z GEFS on the means, pretty notable step back this run I think a more progressive outcome is still workable (and perhaps the most likely outcome currently) as the 500mb energy diving in behind the developing coastal low probably still helps generate the shield of precip thats been on the GFS and Canadian. It wouldn’t a be a big hitter for us but a light to moderate event with a cold column can make up some in ratios. Need to get the Euro on board to at least some degree at some point.

Not to mention Saturday night having 65mph wind gusts. Man I don’t know haha, BUF grids around there have 8-12 by Sunday morning and it looks like the main band focuses there in the morning right up to game time on high res guidance before maybe it slides just south. That’s going to be really difficult for fans to get to day of. Being a playoff game, not much you can do. I’m sure they wouldn’t move venues. About the only thing you could do is push the game to Monday.. and there’s still heavy snow in the grids that day too. PFT finally had an article about it this morning. I don’t know where Florio is getting his weather forecast but it certainly isn’t the NWS.