This pattern is about to be unreal for you. The lakes are still warm and those fronts are going to bring a polar express with it. Can’t wait to see how much NWF you can rack up by New Years.
I haven’t been this excited by a look on the ensembles in years. We know how it goes…nothing is written until the ink dries but nonetheless, at least things seem to be getting interesting.
That -PNA is going to be the fly in the ointment. We should’ve expected it wouldn’t stay positive. I just hope it flips back before long. The NAO going - is certainly a nice step but a -NAO and a -PNA spells nothing more than transient cool days I’m afraid.
Ian appears that he may jog into the coast, south of guidance. That could have a big impact downstream - especially for those that were previously on the cuff.
Tomorrow is going to be a gnarly day across the entire state of NC except maybe extreme SW sections. I think that left side is going to be nastier than we realize as well with the transition to more of a Nor’easter style system.
Every winter this thread reminds me how much I miss living in the higher elevations. Congrats to everyone with snow on the ground this morning! Not gonna lie though - I hit 16 this morning and warmer days fishing and hiking are calling my name now.
Could be another good score for the mountains and down east if the gfs evolution is true. For the western piedmont and foothills, I wouldn’t hold our breath. I’ve seen that surface output for enough years to know it’s cloudy day/sprinkles scenario.