HKY1894
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Everything posted by HKY1894
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18z FV3 is another QPF bomb
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QPF looks better on 18z gfs, One positive trend on both NAM and old GFS at 18z
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NAM has been garbage in the Midwest at 60 hour leads for now I think it should be discounted. I believe the warm nose will affect clt but the way it drives it all the way to the escapement basically I’m not buying right now. .
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He said we are taking there snow last night [emoji23] .
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Mean Control run .
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EPS and Euro is locked in boys and girls very similar eps QPF and snowfall mean compared to 00z actually 12z increased slightly .
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Kuchera through 96 .
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Euro appears to be a crush job for western NC more closely matches FV3 UK and CMC for sure .
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The s/w is sharper and more negatively tilted than the FV3 at 72 hours. Just based off of 500mb look QPF shouldn’t be low here. .
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To be fair in terms of QPF the fv3 more closely matches the ukmet and cmc on the 12z data The eps at 0z had 2 inches of QPF all the way into northern foothills. So at this time the consensus is for more QPF than gfs/nam that could change but as of now no trend .
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To be .
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The FV3 is night and day with QPF vs op gfs. Feel like this will be a good test. This year has trended more QPF in our bigger rain events during the fall so it fits the pattern .
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12z FV3 has much more QPF the current gfs. Storm totals nearing 2 inches all the way to VA border more in line with other globals .
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FV3 gfs ran fine on NCEP site. QPF looks pretty good
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FV3 definitely didn’t go north at 18z can’t tell about QPF but it’s a good run looks like .
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This is huge if it goes down like this, still not sure we're done with changes such a delicate setup with NS energy.
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The 6z gefs mean QPF and snowfall means we’re both south of 0z also increased mean snowfall quite a bit .
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this is big increase compared to 0z . QPF not gonna be a problem with this storm it appears
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You’re much more knowledgeable than me, is there any storms similar to this at 500mb in the past? 2/04? .
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So in a general sense we have old gfs FV3 and now euro hammering areas of NC with massive snowstorm essentially. .
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Big big QPF slow mover and colder temps this run as grit said. Starts snowing at 126 and still going at 144 .
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More accurate representation of FV3 snowfall. .
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I think Lenoir Wilkesboro Boone and Jefferson are in line for huge winter storm .
