AMZ8990

15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like the 18z NAM is like 10 - 20 miles south again with the freezing line. 

Looks like all those mesoscale models are picking up a lot of sleet on each run, been pretty consistent.  Time will tell but but there’s a pretty good consensus across the board for sleet. Personally I’ll take sleet all day long over freezing rain.  

It’s Been a frigid day in Collierville today, definitely colder than expected.    It’s Gonna be an interesting day tomorrow in the mid south for sure.  Winds today have been brutal, it cuts right threw you.  

Rain/sleet line is at the Shelby County/ Fayette County border now.  Temps at 32 in east Memphis.  Wind is ripping according to some family members driving down hwy 64

10 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Be curious to see how fast the temperature drops for our friends our west. It looks like the  front is about over Memphis.

Sitting at 46 in Hardeman County at the moment with a light breeze and overcast skies.  snow/rain is supposed to get here around 6.  

Will we have a white Christmas in Memphis this year? What's the chance of getting snow for Christmas in Memphis?

Well, what does history say about Memphis' chances for snow? Take a look - here's the weather that's happened on Christmas Day in Memphis for the past 147 years....

Records that go back to 1889 show that Memphis had a measurable amount of snow on Christmas only once in 133 years. That was in 1913 when 3.5 inches of snow fell on Christmas Day (1.4 inches was on the ground at 6:00 a.m. that day). Trace amounts (only a few flakes - not enough to measure), fell on 11 occasions - 1914, 1918, 1926, 1939, 1948, 1975, 1980, 1992, 2009, 2010, and 2012.

There has been a few times when there was snow on the ground Christmas morning (from previous storms). The greatest was 1963 when 10 inches covered the city Christmas morning; 1962 and 2004 had 2 inches on the ground, 1998 had 1 inch on the ground, and a trace of snow on Christmas morning in 1897,1966, 1980, and 1990.

The warmest temperature for Christmas Day was 77 degrees in 2021; 1983 had the coldest Christmas at zero (0) degrees.

While a Memphis snow is rare on Christmas Day, rain has fallen several times. Christmas was rainy 50 times in the last 147 years; sleet (or freezing rain) happened three times. The wettest Christmas Day came in 1987 when 4.24 inches of rain soaked Memphis.

Will history be a guide again this year?

Well that was quite a run on the 18z gfs. Massive storm on that go around.  The whole forum gets involved in on the snow.  

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sorry, I should have been more specific.  Looking for the one which compares the GFS to other global modeling.

Trying to find now, there’s a lot of charts to go through. 

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Does anyone have the most updated verification scores for modeling inside of days 10, 7, and 5?

Too many variables at this point to pin down anything.  Models are notoriously back and forth on forecasts when their dealing with these arctic cold weather outbreaks.  By Sunday/Monday we should have a much better idea, need some model uniformity before I take it too seriously.  

56 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's 1983/1989 cold as we head into Christmas per the 18z.

Indeed, definitely a strong signal for some wintery possibilities as we head into the Christmas stretch.  Having potential in early winter is always a huge bonus.  I’m just hoping we can get through the next 24-36 hours without any flash flooding events..  winds have been whipping all day today in east Memphis, you can feel that system pushing in.  Fingers crossed we avoid a gully washer 

On 12/8/2022 at 6:02 AM, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z Euro control is insanely cold over the Plains and Front Range.  That is a fantastic set-up for those who live in western areas of the forum.  The EPS supports that look(core of the cold in the western Plains) w/ the furtherest extent of the cold reaching the Atlantic.  Remember the strat split a while back?  Yep, that is where it normally dumps cold first in NA(if it goes to NA), and right on time 2-3 weeks after the event.  Would be interesting if the background driver was a combination of SSW and Pac forcing(not the good kind).    Anyway, the set-up depicted is very similar to the over-running event for Memphis a few years back.

 Let’s Lock it in!! lol 

21 hours ago, John1122 said:

Two snowy winters in a row. We win the SEC basketball tournament for the first time in 40 years, now we beat Florida and Alabama in the same year for the first time in forever. It's a great time to be alive in Tennessee. 

What a game!!

 First frost of the year may come in the next week or so.  Gonna be some chilly nights next week by the looks of it 

Pretty intense in Memphis this afternoon as this storm rolled through.  Came in fast and the winds were intense.  

Looks like it’s gonna get a little chilly this week in west TN, lows in 50’s with highs in the low 70s to start the week off.  

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Sat. May 21: Boundary intersection forecast WSW of MEM this afternoon in the flat Ark. Delta. Technically not our Region, but I'm thinking about chasing it.

Boundary intersection is outflow / quasi-cold front, not preferred. Rather have a pre-frontal trough away from the CF. However instability is robust. Also modest LLJ flow is forecast. Upper levels are modest too. In late May that is great with high CAPE. Just the boundary pair is not my preferred combo.

CF and WF drawn IL/IN. Yellow is outflow. Magenta is possible boundary intersection forecasts. Idea is just get toward MEM. Normally I go through HSV (few trucks) but probably BNA to offer flexibility if Kentucky pops. Still the best shear looks Ark/Tenn/Miss.

General Public notes: This is a low probability event. Bored on a Saturday. Awaiting Gam 4s in NHL and NBA and USFL Sunday.

Got some nice cells about to roll through hardeman county.  Thunder has been rumbling for about 10 minutes now.  

Rossville to Moscow on highway 57 is getting rotation now as well.  This is about 45 miles from my house.  Getting close to going through my area 

Wall cloud down in Mississippi around slate springs 

Greens to red on the radar, serious line of wind going through Fayette county 

28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago,sure hope we keep power

Me and you both.  5700 without power right now in Memphis according to MLgW.  Tornado warning near Oakland Tn and another down by oxford 

Wind is really ripping here at the house.  Ran into a few spotty squalls on my way home but other than that the heaviest is still an hour or so away.  

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like very high winds in the mountains and foothills overnight.  

Been a stormy day in west Tn so it’s headed y’alls way.  There are a few severe threats popping up this afternoon at the house.  Thunder and lightning has been pretty steady the past hour.  Picked up a little over an inch of rain so far.  

24 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Still snowing heavy




.

Heck yeah, I ended up right around 6” on my side of the state.  Great day for both of us!