AMZ8990

Roads in west Tennessee are about as bad as I’ve ever seen them. Snow, sleet and ice have heavily impacted the area. Folks along the Mississippi/Tennessee border look to have the worst ice damage. Reports of power outages across the county in different rural areas. Saw some info come out of Oxford Mississippi and it looks like they got the brunt of the ice storm, Holly springs area as well was hit pretty bad with ice. That 2nd wave came through last night and doubled sleet totals with some snow mixed in. Probably have .20-.30 ice accumulation where I’m at north west of Bolivar with

It’s now Mostly sleet here in Hardeman county 60 miles north west of Memphis with snow mixing in at times. Around 2-3” on the ground so far

Snow falling in south west Tn. 1-2inches so far by the looks of it.

Local Mets in Memphis seem to be basing their totals off the GFS for west tn

Yeah it definitely has its biases -winds, surface processes, complex terrain. It’s Great in the short range 0-6hrs, especially on severe stuff but past hour 18 it can get weird

Looks like it, RGEM trended a little further south with its snow line as well.

For what it’s worth, The GFS was right with our winter storm back in January 2024. The Euro however was not on board until late in the game. Just food for thought

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103- 112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238- 240-241-313-340-341-231200- /O.UPG.KLZK.WS.A.0001.260123T1800Z-260125T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KLZK.WS.W.0001.260123T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence- Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha- Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest- Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-Northern Scott County- Northwest Yell County-Polk County Lower Elevations-Central and Eastern Montgomery County-Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations- Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations- Van Buren County Higher Elevations-Southern and Eastern Logan County-Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Including the cities of Nogo, Waldron, Clarksville, Mansfield, Western Grove, Marshall, Oark, Benton, Conway, De Valls Bluff, Ola, Hartley, Acorn, Lonoke, Little Rock, Scotland, Pine Bluff, Hampton, Attica, Cherokee Village, Russellville, Kingsland, McGehee, Oxford, Augusta, Cave City, Mountain View, Mammoth Spring, Sheridan, Warren, Des Arc, Plainview, Hatfield, Botkinburg, Coal Hill, Dardanelle, Heber Springs, Bull Shoals, Norman, Pindall, Arbaugh, Mountain Home, Calico Rock, Harrison, Hardy, Beebe, Rich Mountain, Melbourne, Dennard, Mountain Fork, Paris, Ozone, McCrory, Arkadelphia, Morrilton, Rison, Caulksville, Waveland, Monticello, Hector, Stuttgart, Bryant, Murfreesboro, Searcy, Subiaco, Flippin, Nunley, Mount Ida, Grannis, Ponca, Star City, Y City, Clinton, Gould, Camden, Shirley, Boxley, Walnut Ridge, Mena, Yellville, Atkins, Big Fork, Saint Joe, Clarendon, Gilbert, Havana, Pocahontas, Tilly, Cotton Plant, Blue Mountain, Story, Malvern, Horseshoe Bend, Batesville, Hot Springs, Damascus, Dumas, Cabot, Thornton, Newport, De Witt, Hoxie, Hartman, Leslie, Fordyce, Knoxville, London, Danville, Perryville, Deer, North Little Rock, Ash Flat, Sugar Grove, Brinkley, Pelsor, Mount Magazine, Summit, Boles, Jasper, Fairfield Bay, Albert, Booneville, Hazen, and Glenwood 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and some sleet accumulations between 4 and 10 inches across northern sections...sleet and some snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches over central sections...and sleet and ice accumulations around one to three quarters of an inch across far southern and southeast sections. * WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, north central, southeast, southwest, and western Arkansas. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions across Arkansas can be found at www.idrivearkansas.com. && $$ Extreme Cold Watch URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Little Rock AR 553 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341-222200- /O.CAN.KLZK.FG.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260122T1400Z/ /O.CON.KLZK.EC.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T1800Z/ Sharp-Randolph-Independence-Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway- Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke- Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas- Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-Northern Scott County- Northwest Yell County-Polk County Lower Elevations-Central and Eastern Montgomery County-Southern and Eastern Logan County- Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Including the cities of Little Rock, Rich Mountain, Gould, Newport, Hatfield, Nunley, Thornton, Albert, Batesville, Hazen, Augusta, Clarksville, Monticello, Coal Hill, Sheridan, Hector, Dumas, Y City, North Little Rock, Fordyce, McCrory, Murfreesboro, Bryant, Knoxville, Cotton Plant, Mena, Hoxie, Warren, Scotland, Lonoke, Clarendon, Walnut Ridge, Hampton, Hartman, Pine Bluff, Conway, Norman, Subiaco, De Witt, Danville, Star City, Waldron, Hot Springs, Clinton, Des Arc, Waveland, Mountain Fork, Mansfield, Hartley, Blue Mountain, Hardy, Heber Springs, Boles, Benton, Mount Ida, Glenwood, Shirley, Russellville, Caulksville, Malvern, Sugar Grove, Perryville, Stuttgart, Morrilton, Searcy, Story, Ola, Camden, Mount Magazine, De Valls Bluff, Pocahontas, Havana, Beebe, Grannis, Plainview, Ash Flat, Fairfield Bay, Kingsland, Arkadelphia, Rison, Dardanelle, Atkins, Cave City, Brinkley, London, McGehee, Attica, Booneville, Paris, Cabot, Big Fork, Acorn, and Damascus 553 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as as low as 5 to 0 degrees possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, north central, southeast, southwest, and western Arkansas. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. && $$ Winter Storm Warnings now up in Arkansas

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - High confidence in winter weather with travel impacts this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest. - Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts. - Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 After a frigid start to the day, temperatures are climbing through the 20s this morning. High pressure is centered over the area but it will slowly move east this afternoon which will allow weak southerly flow to start. With that, temperatures will not be as cold tonight, but still expect lows in the 20s. A weak trough and associated surface low will approach on Wednesday dragging a weak surface front. Ahead of the front, the southerly winds will increase along with moisture. Models are showing medium to high chances of scattered showers starting Wednesday morning. The shower chances will linger into Wednesday night along the plateau. It looks like the precipitation will remain all liquid with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Behind Wednesday`s system, temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will slide eastward from the central plains and quickly move across the Ohio River Valley. Behind that, a reinforcing cold front will move into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for this weekend`s system. An upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday. There are questions regarding how much energy is ejected and if it phases with upper level energy coming out of Canada. Regardless, precipitation is likely to start as snow either Friday night or Saturday morning. The question is what happens after that. The model solutions that eject more energy out of the Baja develop a stronger inverted surface trough over the southeast and possibly reaching into our area. This would do two things. First, it would enhance QPF amounts and second, it would draw warm air northward which would bring ice and sleet into the picture. Right now, sleet and freezing rain chances are highest closer to the Tennessee/Alabama border but there is still a lot of variation in model solutions. So what are the key messages regarding this weekend? Bottom line... we have high confidence in winter weather with impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make preparations and don`t plan on traveling if you don`t need to. It is not a simple setup that gives us high confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow. BUT, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still produce significant impacts. Any precipitation that falls will likely stick around as the cold air will be entrenched into at least early next week. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast trends in the models, so stay tuned as there is still some time to figure this out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. The low level jet will increase after 06z introducing a window for low level wind shear at BNA/CKV/MQY. Surface winds will increase mid to late Wednesday morning allowing for the LLWS to subside. Light scattered showers could impact the terminals starting from west to east Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 38 27 49 34 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 38 26 45 30 / 0 10 70 10 Crossville 33 21 47 34 / 0 0 50 60 Columbia 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 70 40 Cookeville 33 23 49 35 / 0 0 60 60 Jamestown 31 21 48 33 / 0 0 50 50 Lawrenceburg 39 25 50 37 / 0 0 70 50 Murfreesboro 38 23 50 36 / 0 0 60 50 Waverly 38 27 44 31 / 0 0 70 20 &&