ajr
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Everything posted by ajr
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I’m used to seeing a snow map like that on just ONE ensemble member and us hoping for that... never the mean. Have we ever had a GEFS mean that nice 5 days out?
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Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90
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Slightly weaker southern wave, slightly colder through hr 66 on the 6z FV3
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That’s good to hear - in the past few years the NAM has handled temps better than globals (Jan 2017 comes to mind)
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The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits
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Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system
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18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90
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Might be premature, but just ordered a sled for my son
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Not just you - you can see the cold air from Canada slowly making it further into CONUS at the 850 level
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Sounds like perfect timing
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18z GEFS is going to be more surpressed it looks
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All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out?
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the 12z EURO is taking the low off the GA coast with plenty of cold air above
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Agree.. looking at sounding at hr 180 verbatim when the low is approaching KILM, you can see the warm nose clearly.. then looking at the winds at the 850mb level, you can see the SE flow we don't want.
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I think it's way too early to draw up the freezing lines - certainly we're not favored here, but it's not a bad look yet
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FV3 is nice, temperature outputs still seem strange.. with the PV in SE Canada and a 1035+ HP just to the north of us it seems temps should be lower than modeled
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Looks to me like it spins off another low?
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Looks like the cold air is already mostly gone by the time the storm shows up
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Don't think this run is going to cut it -- looks like the northern and southern wave are interacting more coming in from the Pacific/SW Canada around hr 102. Edit: Nevermind, I think I'm wrong... this could be good...
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12z GEFS looks better with the track of the low -- HP up north is a little sketchy though
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Looks icy as modeled - CAD at the surface with SE winds at the 850 level when precipitation is building
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GEFS overall with positive low level pressure trends (and a nice banana high):
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EPS also supporting a better track:
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Not a lot of support in the GEFS for the op run:
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The best kind of fake news
