MikeB_01

Changes through 36 hrs are pretty negligible 

Early on (only thru 18 hr) looking a little more amped.

GFS is running... Lets see what happens.

Just now, TimB84 said:

Of course they will, but pretty sure PBZ leads the nation by a wide margin in watches that get downgraded to advisories.

I wonder if there is actually a site that can display that graphic. That would be interesting!

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short.

I still think that it is for the potential. HRRR is dropping more than 1" on ice on Beaver county with almost nothing in eastern AGC.  Little tiny shifts make big differences here.

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wouldn’t the WSW be because of the ice putting up to that level, beyond the snow.

Winter Storm Watch: [WS.A]

• Potential for a blizzard, heavy snowfall, or ice storm within the next 18 to 48 hours. Issued when there is a 50% confidence or greater of at least 6 inches of snow over 12 hours, or at least 8 inches of snow over 24 hours, and/or a ¼ inch of ice.

3K is nearing the end of the run on TT. Its definitely better than the reg NAM. Cooler and def more interesting. Pretty rough on the FZR though

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it.

I think they keep it there because of the uncertainty in the forecast. We are talking about the FZR line at the edge of the county. Close call and a tough call

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Nah. You guys just go looking for it. Everyone melted this afternoon and you all decided to pile on me.

No way. All we are asking for is a little positive energy. No wishcasting, but some good positive vibes. We all understand the challenges for winter weather in this area. It is what it is. Lets enjoy the ride and laugh along the way

1 minute ago, north pgh said:

Just an observation. 0z NAM has the low up in northern New Jersey at 1:00 am Friday and the Gfs and cmc have it in Virginia. 

3K also has it significantly further south than the NAM --> At least so far in the run. Still waiting for it to run its course.

Man, every single storm, KPIT walks himself into a pile on. 

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

That had to be a toss run just looks really wonky. 3k not finished yet but looks better 

Thats what I am saying. The NAM run just looked strange. 

The interesting thing about the 00z so far (and it has trended this way a little today) is that the storm appears more amped. Yesterday we saw a flattening of the system as a whole and today that ridge is popping just a little bit more. Interested to see what the other models do with that.

positive vibes people. Positive vibes

at least its interesting... Always nowcasting

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

The HRRR is a bad start to the 00z suite. Looks like 33 and rain. 

I dont know... Somethings looks really off on that radar run of the HRRR. Like a force field bubble. The freezing line approaches and then doesnt advance for 12 straight hours.. Call me Rosey, but it looks strange to me. 

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

How about a good ole fashioned NAMing

I am with you

I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have.


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I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have.


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found this. Thought it was nice to see the comparison between models and runs of models

They are definitely not canceling anything. 33° on one run of one model. HRRR is still out of its league with this amount of time to go. 18z NAM keeps the ice line close enough to the county for the watch to be maintained. 

12z GEFS Panels

12z GEFS Prob of 6+"

12z GEFS

27 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ukie trended warmer.

Yes.. Just a little. If I had to guess, the movement on that model would lead me to think more freezing rain. The warm air is deeper on that model than others. 

So less snow, more FZR 

Ive been in an out of this forum today and trying to keep up with all of the posts. This is the most recent Ice forecast though